PA TOTE BOT

[PaceAdvantage]

I doubt anyone's noticed, but I have started a little experiment on the home page (www.paceadvantage.com)

I've developed a black box for myself that does nothing but record, analyze, and wager on win pool tote action. Not only does it wager automatically, but it automatically places the selections on the home page...scroll down and look on the lower right of the page....

It's posted a total of 30 plays thus far today and is basically even for the day...didn't have a winner pay over $8.00....

It makes a wager (actually, it can make up to 3 selections per race) at 0mtp based on what it has seen of the tote action leading up to 0mtp.

I'm not claiming it's a winning style of play, as this is still an experiment in progress, but it does fascinate me, and the results have been surprisingly good thus far. Certain tracks appear to lend themselves to this kind of play more than others. But on days like today, with only a handful of tracks running, I just let the thing rip on all the tracks....

I still haven't automated the result posting process...I have to update results myself manually...but it posts the plays automaticaly at 0mtp along with a time stamp if anyone is crazy enough to want to follow along....

I'm totally consumed by the process of automation when it comes to anything, and since horse racing is one of my passions, this is a natural progression for me....

[Frontenac]

I think it's a great idea. I've been experimenting with something similar myself.
Good work!

[2low]

Can anybody get access to a tote board and auto-bet through an ADW? I'd love to auto-bet my odds line with tiered conditional bets.

[PaceAdvantage]

First day of the live experiment went rather well...showed a nice profit wagering on almost every live race offered (a couple of races had more than one horse wagered to win). I've attached a screen shot of the final numbers for 12/16. If I would have been selective and concentrated only on the tracks that showed the most promise heading into today (TUP and MNR) I would have done even better.

I plan on listing the best prospects for tomorrow at the top of the PA TOTE BOT section of the home page...

[Tom Barrister]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Certain tracks appear to lend themselves to this kind of play more than others.

That's the key. Certain tracks lend themselves to what your bot is looking for; other tracks lend themselves to some other factor. Certain stables do things a specific way, others do it differently, and it can vary from owner to owner under the same trainer.

The point is that there's on one-size-fits-all way to do it, and that's why most tote-handicappers give up on it.

[DeanT]

Extremely interesting! Keep us posted please!

[PaceAdvantage]

For today (12/17/08) I have made an update to my models and the results (theoretically of course) should be much improved, especially for the lesser tracks I was having trouble with before.

Here are the tracks running Wednesday in order of preference:

Hollywood
Penn National
Hawthorne
Tampa Bay
Golden Gate
Retama
Fair Grounds
Delta Downs
Charles Town
Laurel

If I weren't running a live experiment, I would concentrate on the top five tracks listed and ignore the rest for now.

But, since I am experimenting (and thus betting very low amounts), I am going to let it rip on all of them and see what happens.

[raybo]

16 winners in 78 tries= 20% hit rate. $94.60 paid on $78 bet= 21% profit.

Average mutuel= $5.91
Average odds= 1.96/1

Appears the 2 big hits at Mnr skewed your results. I'd stick with Mnr, if it were me.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by raybo

16 winners in 78 tries= 20% hit rate. $94.60 paid on $78 bet= 21% profit.

Average mutuel= $5.91
Average odds= 1.96/1

Appears the 2 big hits at Mnr skewed your results. I'd stick with Mnr, if it were me.

OOps! 16 winners in 39 bets= 41% hit rate (not 20%, my bad)

[Frontenac]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

For today (12/17/08) I have made an update to my models and the results (theoretically of course) should be much improved, especially for the lesser tracks I was having trouble with before.

Here are the tracks running Wednesday in order of preference:

Hollywood
Penn National
Hawthorne
Tampa Bay
Golden Gate
Retama
Fair Grounds
Delta Downs
Charles Town
Laurel

If I weren't running a live experiment, I would concentrate on the top five tracks listed and ignore the rest for now.

But, since I am experimenting (and thus betting very low amounts), I am going to let it rip on all of them and see what happens.

Maybe it's too early to give up on those other tracks. Sometimes the best things can start out bad, but turn out to be very good later on.

[michiken]

How about adding Turfway Park?

[PaceAdvantage]

Apparently I got my track schedule a bit screwy....no Fair Grounds or Retama today, but add Turf Paradise....TUP would also be considered a "good" track, making it a list of six...HOL, PEN, HAW, TAM, TUP, GG

I don't use Turfway because my program was written for a specific ADW and that ADW does not allow me to wager on Turfway...
If this project turns out to be successful, I plan to port it over to Premier Turf Club and take advantage of rebates.

[Dave Schwartz]

And what we'd all like to know, is, "What are you doing?"

[PaceAdvantage]

And now I find out TUP has cancelled....

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

For today (12/17/08) I have made an update to my models and the results (theoretically of course) should be much improved

I've been dying for you to say "Let's Get Profitable!!"

Seriously though, this looks like a pretty interesting project...