TPR Track Adjustments

[icyman]

I am currently reading "Pace Makes The Race",(paperback edition), and I like what I see. I like the way that track-to-track adjustments are made by creating a track adjustment figure that is made by combining a track surface speed number, that is derived from 3-year best times, and a track class number that is found in the eleven level class chart.
Can anybody tell me how to go about creating a class chart, like the eleven level chart that is found on page 34, inorder to update it or to acomodate a new track when making TPR figures?

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by icyman

I am currently reading "Pace Makes The Race",(paperback edition), and I like what I see. I like the way that track-to-track adjustments are made by creating a track adjustment figure that is made by combining a track surface speed number, that is derived from 3-year best times, and a track class number that is found in the eleven level class chart.
Can anybody tell me how to go about creating a class chart, like the eleven level chart that is found on page 34, inorder to update it or to acomodate a new track when making TPR figures?

Good luck, because the only class races in North America that tend to be similar in quality from track to track are the Graded Stake Races and they have their inconsistencies. However claiming, allowance, and maiden special weight races can be all over the place and somewhere in between. A good indicator of race quality by track is the DRF PVI (Purse Value Index).

[socantra]

Originally Posted by icyman

I am currently reading "Pace Makes The Race",(paperback edition), and I like what I see. I like the way that track-to-track adjustments are made by creating a track adjustment figure that is made by combining a track surface speed number, that is derived from 3-year best times, and a track class number that is found in the eleven level class chart.
Can anybody tell me how to go about creating a class chart, like the eleven level chart that is found on page 34, inorder to update it or to acomodate a new track when making TPR figures?

Do an advanced search here for "sartin track class" There's a thread from a couple of years ago that has an updated Sartin track class chart from 2005 or so and several other alternatives to help you put a new one together.

[Dick Schmidt]

Well, you can start with almost any old class chart. The Racing Form used to print one every month or so and that was the basis of the one in the book. Read a little deeper and you'll see that a class chart is just a starting point, and is not to be used like it was chiseled in stone. One of the great strengths of PMTR is that we show you how to build your own track to track adjustments and how to keep them current. One of the great weaknesses of TPR is that almost no one does this, as it resembles work.

Anyway, you have two choices here: you can dig in and do the work, or you can use the adjustments from HDW, which are really very good but cost a hundred bucks or so a month. You'll find them in Synergism or HSH (Synergism shows TPR ratings).

Please keep in mind that TPR was never intended to be a formula for winning to be followed blindly and to stand up for all time. In several places in the book, I tell you that you have to "tinker" with various adjustments, just like we (Tom) did when we wrote the book. If you don't keep up, you might as well bet the Beyer numbers.

Dick

"Peace is that brief glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading."

[icyman]

Thanks Dick, "Oh Great One", and to all who have replied to my post.I will continue to read and at $100.00 a month for HDW, I will continue to dig.
Prior to posting "TPR Track Adjustments" I sat down with a 2007 copy of Cynthia pars and I made a list of par times for two classes, $10,000 claiming horses and non graded stakes, both at six furlongs, by seperating the tracks into groups whos final times were seperated by 1/5th of a second. After seeing the results I thought that I had better not mention it in my post as members would think that I was smoking crack. After seeing replies to my post I may have not been too far off after all.
The non graded stakes were not too bad actually. Applying the 2007 pars to the existing class chart in PMTR got pretty good results and using the alphabet class rating found in the Cynthia pars got closer to what I was looking for, namely a track class chart whos class levels are seperated by 1/5ths of a second so that they can be used in making TPR figures as prescribed in PMTR.
I will check into the 2005 Sartin class chart and rerun the par times for graded stakes and in general keep slogging away at this problem. Once again thank you for your time.

[Dick Schmidt]

Checking old class and par charts will get you started, but current reality is always better. Start checking "reliable" older horses (geldings are usually good) that are shipping. If you decide a shipper should finish 10th, and it actually finished 5th, you have some problem with your adjustments. Keep fine tuning as you accumulate more data. Yes, you need to do this with many shippers until you find a number that works at least most of the time, but it is all part of the process. Most handicappers don't worry so long as the shipper doesn't beat them, but you need to fine tune for accuracy. Same is true for the shipper who should win going away and just gets a head in front. You need to take another look at those adjustments. You don't want to base the adjustments on just one or two races, but when you start to see a trend, either better or worse finishes than predicted, it's time to move the number.


Good luck

Dick

"History will be kind to me for I intend to write it."
Sir Winston Churchill (1874 - 1965)

[Jake]

Originally Posted by icyman

Thanks Dick, "Oh Great One", and to all who have replied to my post.I will continue to read and at $100.00 a month for HDW, I will continue to dig.
Prior to posting "TPR Track Adjustments" I sat down with a 2007 copy of Cynthia pars and I made a list of par times for two classes, $10,000 claiming horses and non graded stakes, both at six furlongs, by seperating the tracks into groups whos final times were seperated by 1/5th of a second. After seeing the results I thought that I had better not mention it in my post as members would think that I was smoking crack. After seeing replies to my post I may have not been too far off after all.
The non graded stakes were not too bad actually. Applying the 2007 pars to the existing class chart in PMTR got pretty good results and using the alphabet class rating found in the Cynthia pars got closer to what I was looking for, namely a track class chart whos class levels are seperated by 1/5ths of a second so that they can be used in making TPR figures as prescribed in PMTR.
I will check into the 2005 Sartin class chart and rerun the par times for graded stakes and in general keep slogging away at this problem. Once again thank you for your time.

Dave Schwartz's pars are superior here. He probably would even discuss how you should use them in your efforts, adjustments and all.

Jake

[KYJACK]

Originally Posted by icyman

Can anybody tell me how to go about creating a class chart, like the eleven level chart that is found on page 34, inorder to update it or to acomodate a new track when making TPR figures?

ICYMAN
Here's a link to an older thread that may be of use to you in your quest!

Database programming/design question
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=29351
KYJACK: "Research how Par Times are actually computed and adjusted, to help you derive a Class Rating!"
Dave Schwartz: "Also, we actually have a format in our par times file that addresses class level quite functionally."

Also, check out this link to ATM's Track Equalization Chart http://www.americanturf.com/equalization/index.cfm

and other links mentioned in the thread to Dave's "Understanding Par Times" (which talks about adjustments for Track class levels, Age, Females, Starter Races and Statebreds) and "Class Pars Book"'
NOTE: Some of this documentation material may not represent his current thinking, but the available HSH Pars are indeed current and accurate! Just like Jake indicated previously!

Originally Posted by Jake

Dave Schwartz's pars are superior here. He probably would even discuss how you should use them in your efforts, adjustments and all.

Jake

KYJACK