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Old 08-05-2008, 02:00 AM   #16
asH
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wait for a solid single then play a multiple pk 3 for 3X1X3 = $9, ...

if you are certain of your percentages 3X3X3 = $27 at a 51% hit rate, you cant lose...over time

to beter increase your odds:
you need to know which kind of races produce your higher win percentages and center your pk (X) around that kind/type of race ie MSW, allowance NW1, 6F, etc...
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Old 08-05-2008, 03:37 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cratos
As I understand the problem, it is not a 80% hit rate of a given race, it is a 80% hit rate of a subset of a given race and the probability of that subset having a contender is 3/X where X is the size of the field. This problem becomes a conditional probability or Bayesian analysis.
If he was selecting the horses at random, the probability would be as you state, 3/X. However, he is not selecting them at random. The probability of his selection method producing a winner in various size fields has not been established. He simply states that field sizes and winners' odds varies and that low-priced horses win more frequently than high-priced horses.
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Old 03-06-2018, 12:36 AM   #18
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In one of James Quinns books, he actuqlly says shooting for an 80% hit rate on your top 2/3/4 contenders is something to strive for. I remember the book saying the idea came from elsewhere.
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Old 03-06-2018, 01:18 AM   #19
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With an 80% hit rate in 3 horses you could simply bet all three. Period.
I would flat bet, but only when the lowest odds of the 3 was 2/1

I am not sure how many races this will leave you to bet ... but gets discouraging paying $6 and returning $3.80 (times your bet level).
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Old 03-06-2018, 10:42 AM   #20
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Calculate your historical edge for every odds range for whatever process you used to produce the contenders. Bet all the horses you have an edge on as a function of your current bankroll. e.g. if you have a 3% edge, place a 3% bet of bankroll on the horse. In any given race you might have no horses to play, might have 3 or might have 6. A good selection process will produce a variable amount of edge wagers in any given race. From a 30,000 foot view a 80% hit rate in your top 3 is great, but how many times a month, week, day or hour does that come up?

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Old 03-07-2018, 01:54 AM   #21
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Suppose you could isolate three contenders in a large group of races. 80% of the time, one of your contenders wins. The field sizes for the races and the odds for the three contenders can be all over the place but as in any meaningful sample, the 3-5 contenders will win a lot more often than the 10-1 contenders. Other than that, I'm just trying to take advantage of the statistic that one of the three will win at an 80% clip without trying to further rank or separate the three contenders.

There are a lot of creative minds on this board so I'd like to solicit some win wagering strategies to best take advantage of this statistic as-is.

Thanks in advance for your input.

Dale
for most of us, winning 80 percent of time will still coat us the price of the track take out.
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Old 03-07-2018, 12:28 PM   #22
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I would go back over the course of a month or two and look back at the winners of those races. Determine if your handicapping method is picking winners more in route races vs sprints, dirt vs turf, etc.

I would then look at how to possibly isolate one of the 3. Are there any angles you are using to handicap or strictly via a pace/speed/race set up ? I am an angle guy. I may not have a high win percentage but the average price of my winners makes up for it. There are times when my contender looks brutal but wins and pays $40-$50.

Look for positive jockey switches. Recent work outs. Trainer changes, distance changes. Anything to get an edge.

Lastly....check out the prices on those winners. Are they in a specific range. Are you hitting a lot of low odds favorites or are your winners paying $8-$12.

Betting horses in a specific PTO range is always tough. Me....I can't bet on 2-1 or less. I pass the race most times. Same on the other end...30-1 is the top end. I look for the sweet spot between 4-1 through 12-1. I have found that most of my winners that I pick using my specific angle pay win at 5-1 through 8-1. They are my prime bets. I will double up on my bet if the horses odds are in that range. Also, the method I use works about 5 times better on route races so I pretty much stick to them now.

3 contenders with an 80% win rate is great. I would try to do some additional analysis to see if there is additional data or a methodology to isolate one of them. I know that's tough work but it may be worth it. You may end up with a sweet spot play method.
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Old 03-24-2018, 06:19 PM   #23
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All this assumes that you know what the closing odds are - which is almost impossible these days.
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Old 03-28-2018, 01:51 PM   #24
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with the stats given of 3 bets per race and 80% winners wouldnt anything over an average payoff of $7.50 be profit?
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