is thoroughbred handicapping harder than harness? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

HarnessMan · 06-15-2008, 07:26 AM

How hard is thoroughbred handicapping compared to harness racing?

I have been playing harness racing since I was about 21 and I am now 29. I play about 4-6 times a week, usually 2-6 times per races. Never had a losing quarter. II dont calculate probabilities, I just "know" when I have an overlay (at least in the long run). Oh, I must add that I play in Finland so the competition is minimal.

I don’t think I am extraordinary good at handicapping. Here the general public is just not very good. Not much information easily available and the information we have, public uses it wrongly. Hugely overestimating / underestimating certain things.

You can not play win betting because of the pools. I only play exactas which is basicly the only good bet type here, exacta pool are 10k-40k euros. You can win pretty steadily by doing couple of hours analysis per race and watching warm-ups. Although to be honest, I did use a lot of time researching when I was starting this hobby. The same trends just keep continuing so I have not done any new major research. Heh, maybe I am also not giving myself enough credit, after all I am consistent winner....

Anyway, here we dont even have thoroughbred racing but I am bored and want to try something new for a change. Why? Well, I like horses and I think I will go to Asia someday and I want to be ready (HK etc.)

But if you guys think thoroughbred racing in a place where the pools are bigger is >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> harder than harness racing in a somewhat small market, I might think it twice and stick to what I know. After all I have heard that the mastermind Benter also quit racing. Maybe inefficient markets are the way to go. Too bad Hong Kong racing is just to interesting with those big pools…. But I guess everybody has noticed that also LOL

Like here you can get an edge by doing a simple elimination process, calculating Speed Point (b/c no one else here does that and ppl doesn’t seem to realize that running in the lead is ++++) and watching past replays (and noticing things public under-/overestimates... and there are many) and pre-race warm-ups (I really do well with pre-race warm-up analysis). If I can’t get to the track, I have friends who report to me, and I can bet online. I was reading about thoroughbred racing and found this guy called Joe Takach. Don’t know if he is any good but my style is very much like his (from what I understood). Meaning I do handicapping BUT I do physical handicapping A LOT and that is the main thing when I am deciding whether to bet or not. If the horse doesnt look good, I wont play no matter who he is.

Maybe I am giving too much credit but I would think that at least in USA / UK / HK every piece of information is fully AND correctly adjusted into the prices because of the high rollers and tens of computerized systems that takes account everything. Meh. I was thinking only trying to get edge from doing a simple elimination process, past race analysis and watching pre-race warm-ups but I guess those are also discounted into the prices?

Long story short: thoroughbred vs harness, which one is harder?

PaceAdvantage · 06-16-2008, 11:12 PM

Bumping this up for internal reasons.

KMS · 06-17-2008, 01:22 AM

I would like to try harness racing, but am not willing to make the investment in time and money to learn it at this point.

DeanT · 06-17-2008, 01:23 AM

Imo, Harness is easier than tbreds if you follow the races each day. If you do not, tbreds are easier.

whyhorseofcourse · 06-17-2008, 01:29 AM

Harness has shorter fields so its going getting a winner should be easier.
But as far as ROI I do not see why it will be any different if takeouts are similar.

Imriledup · 06-17-2008, 01:38 AM

Thoroughbred racing is 'easier' only because the pools are bigger, there are more suckers betting on the runners. In the Harness, the pools are smaller and the people who bet harness racing are fairly sharp, there's very little meat on the bone at some of the bigger tracks. Im not sure how easy european harness racing is, but harness racing in America is tough. There are only a few harness tracks where the pools are even big enough to bet...meadowlands, Mohawk and a few others maybe in Chicago, but other than that, there really isn't large pools to exploit.

Tom Barrister · 06-17-2008, 06:40 AM

Harness racing is easier to beat consistently, if you know what you're doing. Thoroughbred has potential for greater profit but takes much more work.

ryesteve · 06-17-2008, 07:43 AM

I'm going to say that it's easier to pick winners in harness racing, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's easier to show a profit.

What really determines "hard" vs. "easy" is how much smart money there is in the pool... and as you said, when it comes to Finland harness racing, there doesn't seem to be much.

Sinner369 · 06-17-2008, 12:57 PM

My first 10 years was learning and betting thoroughbreds; the last 10 years I
concentrated on betting harness horses.

Why? Because harness handicapping is way easier than thoroughbreds.

Why? Because I don't know why thoroughbreds win or why they lose. Case in point.........Big Brown.........the debate is still going on.......!

With the harness I know exactly why they win/lose.

Sinner

njcurveball · 06-17-2008, 01:02 PM

I know I will probably get blasted, but I find there are many more blatant cheaters in Harness Racing.

I haven't had any interest in the Meadowlands (one of my home tracks) since the Ledford scandal. The fact that he was allowed to drive again after only 14 months was probably the largest slap in the face any racing fan there will ever get.

I think the Ledford family was represented by the legal team

Drugem,Cashem, and Killem!

Given a "fair" game, harness is definitely easier to pick winners, and given that fact, there is more profit in thoroughbreds.

46zilzal · 06-17-2008, 04:02 PM

We have a driver here (S.M.) who is not allowed at ANY OTHER HARNESS MEET IN NORTH AMERICA, and turns around claims all the time. What does that tell you about regulations?

There is SO much equipment and changes we do not know about (even after being in the receiving barn), so many quick form reversals, and so many driver shenanigans, that I would never wager on it.

I was put off a bit before, but now working at a harness meet all Winter, my fears have been confirmed. Too many variables involved.

Robert Fischer · 06-17-2008, 06:20 PM

from my limited perspective on Harness:
what is the perception to me is that good horses with the ability to lead off the break and slow the pace to reasonable time usually win, and nearly always place or show.
Add in a track with no negative bias towards their "post"? , and a driver that can both time the start to insure the lead, and pace the horse, and you have a mega high%.

I am talking more about general cheap harness races. I haven't looked at stakes races much, where it could be more likely that an occasional exceptional talent could actually close and beat one of these well timed front runners.

I could be way off. I don't watch much harness, but that is how it appears from my vantage.

jasperson · 06-17-2008, 08:44 PM

As a former owner,trainer, better and driver of harness horses it is easier to bet harness if you study just one track. Now I play mostly tb's because that is what we get in Texas. I will play between 3 and 5 tb tracks per day and wouldn't think about that with the sb's To win at the sb's you have to know your trainer, driver and horses. The trip is the the most important thing in harness racing. You will make your most money on horses that you saw race and had a really bad trip. As for the comment on dishonesty at harness tracks it is equal to or less than the tb's. The difference is that rule enforce is more strict at the harness track than the tb's. As Janet Reno said about investigations into Clinton was she could find anything wrong. To find something wrong you have to be looking for it. The tb's are not looking very hard for it. Some time ago the drf published and article about beware of horses shipping cd because drug enforcement there was lack at best. It is harder to drive a horse to finish well in sb's than jockeys in tb's. As Eddie Arcaro said about riding claiming sprinter " You are just there for the ride.". It a lot harder to screw up in a 1 turn sprint than a 4 turn mile on a half mile track. As some people said Kent D. screwed up in a 2 turn route race in the Belmont. The jockey is not near as important in tb's as it is in sb's.

Lose The Juice · 06-17-2008, 09:09 PM

"Imriledup" has the guts of it... at most harness tracks these days, there are about 38 people in the stands, and you'll have cards (especially at half-milers like Northfield) with ten winning favorites, many of em odds-on, many of 'em frontrunners. In the old days you bet largely against the public, and the public often wasn't terribly sharp; nowadays, with track attendance down to about zilch, the money in the pools rarely seems to be bet by Hatpin Marys, and there seems to be a VERY heavy information asymmetry. The Ledford thing was appalling, but in reality just the latest in a long string of such scandals.

The greatest living harness racing driver, Walter Case, Jr., is now in prison in Ohio, though for a matter unrelated to racing.

LottaKash · 06-17-2008, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarnessMan

How hard is thoroughbred handicapping compared to harness racing?

Maybe I am giving too much credit but I would think that at least in USA / UK / HK every piece of information is fully AND correctly adjusted into the prices because of the high rollers and tens of computerized systems that takes account everything. Meh. I was thinking only trying to get edge from doing a simple elimination process, past race analysis and watching pre-race warm-ups but I guess those are also discounted into the prices?

Long story short: thoroughbred vs harness, which one is harder?

Very "Interesting Thread", but I'm afraid my little alarm bell is ringing again, and I believe this poster is scamming y'all........He seems to have lost his accent about half way through his question of which is easier to handicap....

Nice try Harnessman, Finland..........haha...........

still laughing,