calibration handicapping the next level

[Pickwick]

Thanks for all the comments in this (unsolicited) thread begun by shoelessjoe (Jackson), who is my buddy as are a number of others who made replies that are members of C.J.’s group.

I know this is not the place to advertise one’s products, unless payment is made to do so.

But I just want to answer a couple of questions.

Nagwa – I have no plans to write another book. "Calibration Handicapping – The Next Level" was written in the spring of 2002 and I have used the approaches and material contained within it in my daily play (nearly exclusively in NY) ever since.

Overlay – I can understand your question because of what looks like great information on your website about establishing fair odds lines.

In my book I suggest making odds lines only for contenders on which one is contemplating making wagers, either win (place) or exotics.

I don’t recommend taking the time to make lines for all entries; I see on your website that you do provide a service that accomplishes that, which if able to be done quickly (and I am certain it is in your service) can be quite valuable.

I simply want to set an "about" value line or odds for my contenders, above which I don’t consider them value plays or at least "as good as" plays.

Due to ongoing health issues I haven’t been able to write new material for my main website: www.free-horseracing-info.com

But I do keep the book up for sale on the website as well at Gambler’s Book Club in Las Vegas.

Because of not advertising I don’t sell nearly as many copies of “Calibration Handicapping – The Next Level” anymore, but I do stand on a couple of statements I’ve made.

First of all, despite the 60-day "free look" policy, the return rate has stood firm at 1%.

And secondly, I can personally attest to the fact that using the C.H. approach will unearth value payoffs despite a few thousand players having access to the book.

The content is pretty much about thinking out of the box and using approaches like what I call the red-scan-qualifying technique, which is found nowhere else, and is a very, very quick and very often accurate way to uncover horses that show potential for strong next-out performance.

I’m sure you and the majority of Pace Advantage members are well aware of horses that can be very live next-out contenders that in their last race have faded rather than gained ground to the finish.

One of my favorite and most lucrative plays (not a fantastic hit rate, but very often a good value play) is the speed/fade play.

What makes this play stronger is the addition of other crucial criteria, the best of which is the speed/fade/wide/even/drop play.

This is a horse that is close up to the pace either on it or within a couple of lengths of the leader(s) during the first two segments of a race or to approximately the pace call, which is 4F in sprints and 6F in most routes.

If that horse was wide around the final turn and into the stretch and then faded, while of course losing ground and lengths to the 8th pole, and from that point to the finish line remained the same number of lengths behind or up to 2 additional lengths behind, and also was taking a sensible drop in class in its return to the races within 45 days, it could very well have set itself up for a strong next-out performance.

Wide is good, and even finish is good.

And the final 220 yards or eighth of a mile (or from the furlong marker to the wire) is I believe one of the most overlooked key segments of any and all races.

My belief is that most of the money funneled into the pools comes from players who don’t know the value of the speed/fade play, especially if this play contains one or more of the other criteria and is also enhanced if the pace shape in the follow-up outing favors horses that project to be on, close to, or quickly approaching the lead at the pace call.

I’m also truly convinced that most of the money bet into the pools is a result of strong emphasis placed on speed figures, which simply measure final time. If you want to call the sheets speed figures then they are exceptions to an extent because of the additions included.

Anyway, I thank those that have replied in this thread and I wish I could do more writing in the form of newsletters and free picks with analysis, etc.

I would like, however, to attach to this post a couple of pdf files I have that could be interesting to some players.

One is on running style labeling, which I find to be very important in terms of getting an idea of the pace shape and pace pressure of a particular race.

While this exercise can correctly be considered subjective, and my approach does not break down labels into more than just E, EP, P and S, it has served me well.

The other file is simply an excerpt from William Quirin’s book about how to assign horses Quirin speed points.

Clear Skies and Fast Tracks,
-Jim

http://www.horseracinghandicapper.com/RS.pdf

http://www.horseracinghandicapper.com/QSP.pdf

[chrisl]

Hello Jim: Thank you for all your generous help, patience, and superior customer service. May I wish you the best of health..chrisl

[nagwa]

thanks jim,

excellent handicapping book,

best wishes

[russowen77]

Yhis book is wild. I was looking at the results of the 1st race at GP today--$66 dollar winner and couldn't see anything that would make me even think about the horse until I got to the PP's. It was the only horse in the race that would have been red lined.

[Pickwick]

I'm obviosly happy to hear of that red-scan bomb Russ; thanks.

Didn't play that track so I missed it.

Also, many thanks for the positive comments from nagwa, chrisl and all the others.

-Jim

[Tom]

I really like Jim's book and Jerry's (Guru) book because they were written by players and they talked to us like players. I could see myself sitting at the track talking the races out with these guys.

[russowen77]

I missed it also.I wasn't playing today. I just couldn't fine one clue to the winner to your technique blasted it.

Thank you so much. Almost every nice score this year has been a red scan something. I think it is because the public misses those horses but what do I know.

I made up the cost of the book ages ago and is one of my two all time favorites. Excellent work.

[cnollfan]

I was not familiar with this book at all, but bought it sight unseen based on this thread. Thanks for the suggestion.

[nagwa]

you wont go wrong with this very informative and handicapping gem..of a book..

[WhyWhyWhy]

Originally Posted by Pickwick

I don’t recommend taking the time to make lines for all entries; I see on your website that you do provide a service that accomplishes that, which if able to be done quickly (and I am certain it is in your service) can be quite valuable.

I simply want to set an "about" value line or odds for my contenders, above which I don’t consider them value plays or at least "as good as" plays.

Pricing individual horses can be useful, but can also lead to tunnel vision. Lots of marginal 10-1 and 12-1 shots who wouldn't be rated wind up hitting the board too.

And secondly, I can personally attest to the fact that using the C.H. approach will unearth value payoffs despite a few thousand players having access to the book.

Either the methods are nonspecific and require further qualification for profitability, or a big bettor just hasn't gotten his hands on it yet.

Is there any way to standardize the selection process to where you can measure ROI on some angles that meet certain criteria?

[Pickwick]

Tom (holdingpattern) was nice enough to run some numbers through his database and came up with this information.

Hi Jim,

Ran 7 of the CH factors through the NY tracks from May 2005 through the beginning of Feb 2008:

Only looked at Dirt races:

There is no doubt that the key factor on the Dirt is the Smooth Fade-back (SFB).

The Work In Race (WIR) and Wide Out (WO) Plays by themselves are profitable. The Profile Play (Prof) is just shy of break even. All 3 of these plays incorporate or allow for the Smooth Fade back.

This isn't surprising when I think about it, but eliminating horses coming from an NPR (Negative Pace Race) race, significantly improve the results for the WO and Profile factors. Interestingly, the WIR wasn't impacted by the removal of those type races.

So after forcing the WIR play to use only SFB the ROI jumped up very nicely.

No other handicapping factors were used and I must say stellar results.

__________________________________________________ _____________

This is why I am a fan of the SFB plays, including one going today (2/21/08) at AQU in Race 5, #3 Nkosi Reigns.

This gelding has very competitive speed but will likely press the pace, drops in class for stellar connections (McLaughlin with Garcia back in the saddle), and is a very nice-looking SFB play.

The M/L made for Nkosi Reigns by Eric Donovan is 8-1 in what looks like a competitive affair.

I think fair odds on this one are 4-1, and I’ll be on him if he’s close to that figure.

[Hosshead]

Do you have your own specific definition of a "Negative Pace Race" ?

Thanks, ------- Hoss

[cj]

Originally Posted by Hosshead

Do you have your own specific definition of a "Negative Pace Race" ?

Thanks, ------- Hoss

Using my numbers, these are races which have a pace figure slower than the speed figure. I believe Storm Cadet coined the term on my board against my protests.

[Pickwick]

That's how I identify NPR's and they are useful in conjunction with C.J.'s late pace figure also.

[rrbauer]

Pickwick:

My belief is that most of the money funneled into the pools comes from players who don’t know the value of the speed/fade play, especially if this play contains one or more of the other criteria and is also enhanced if the pace shape in the follow-up outing favors horses that project to be on, close to, or quickly approaching the lead at the pace call.

I’m also truly convinced that most of the money bet into the pools is a result of strong emphasis placed on speed figures, which simply measure final time. If you want to call the sheets speed figures then they are exceptions to an extent because of the additions included.

Comment:
Amen! The clearest record, race after race, of the crowd chasing its tail is the tote board. People who think (and bet) with some imagination using information gleaned from between the lines (or information that is below the surface) and who refuse to be foolish where their money is concerned know about the rewards from their efforts. Thinking for yourself and putting that to work on a daily basis is a threshold that many folks don't even try to cross.