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Old 04-15-2002, 04:01 PM   #1
tanda
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Saarland

Charlsie Canty said, before the Saturday prep races, that every horse was looking for a reason to go on to the Derby except two who had proven they belonged. One was Harlan's Holiday. The other was Saarland.

He won the Remsen in slow time against nobody and finished second in a one turn mile against a horse that will not go on to the classics. That proves he belongs in the Derby?

I have seen this before: a slow horse who makes no move on the turn and closes mildly and has a big but undeserved rep. Last year he ran under the name Dollar Bill. He has reappeared as Saarland.

I habe no doubt he will go on the Louisville, but to say that a his credentials before Saturday had earned him a definite start in the Derby is ludicrous. Of course, his race Saturday did nothing to enhance his credentials, but I am sure Charlsie thinks otherwise.

Saarland is a complete throw-out on the first Saturday in May.
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Old 04-15-2002, 04:16 PM   #2
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I wouldn't throw him out, but that's just my opinion, and this doesn't mean I'm saying he'll win. However, he reminds me of a few horses, namely Strike the Gold and Sea Hero, who really weren't very good, but under the right circumstances they could win at 1 1/4 miles. He is definitely a much matured horse since last year. Keep in mind the ultimate goal was not the Gotham or the Wood.

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Old 04-15-2002, 04:46 PM   #3
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I am confused. Shug said his goal was the Wood. Are you saying a trainer would lie? I am shocked!

Of course, he could win, any horse can win any race. But his chances are so slim compared to his probable odds that he has no value in any wager.

I do not agree with Watchamaker often, but Saarland is a plodder and plodders only get in trouble in the Derby.

Note: Watchamaker picked Dollar Bill in the Derby DRF. I guess he forgot his own advice.
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Old 04-15-2002, 04:54 PM   #4
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I never listen to trainers, they usually just run off at the mouth. In Saarland's case, I certainly didn't think he would be ready for his best effort of a nearly 5 month layoff and a 1 turn 1 mile prep, no matter what the trainer says. He's probably not fully cranked for 1 1/4 m either now with only two preps.

That said, I like your reasoning, I never really judge whether a horse is worth a bet until I know what his odds are and compare it to my odds line. With such an evenly matched field this year, there really is no telling what price any horse will be until Derby Day.

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Old 04-16-2002, 11:44 AM   #5
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Not saying I'm going to back Saarland either, but I do think McGaughey got stuck a little bit out of his game plan when Gulfstream couldn't get an allowance race to fill for him, so they had to come up to New York for the Gotham. And I do feel on Wood Memorial day, that horses who weren't front-runners or stalkers were at a disadvantage.

And as for Charlsie Cantey, she also said, with regard to her backing Harlan's Holiday for top Derby choice right now, something like .. that despite his slow time in the Blue Grass, he's getting the job done. Well, Came Home has only failed to get the job done once in his career, which is better than Harlan's Holiday, and Came Home continues to be knocked based on pedigree, and most recently because of his slow time in the Santa Anita Derby, which people are using as proof that he does not want to go a distance. However, both horses came home in an equally slow 13 and change. So, I wonder, why is Harlan's Holiday considered to be that much of a better horse by everyone? His pedigree is barely better than Came Home's pedigree.

In my opinion, Came Home had some excuses for the lackluster effort in the Santa Anita Derby, because of all the events that took place behind the scenes in the weeks leading up to the race. With that in mind, I think Came Home ran the better final Derby prep than Harlan's Holiday.
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Old 04-16-2002, 08:16 PM   #6
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You'll get no argument from me Observer....you make some very logical points about Came Home...I wasn't impressed at all with HH's last race...


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Old 04-16-2002, 08:27 PM   #7
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I wasn't impressed with HH either, but that doesn't make Came Home any more legitimate, and as we all know, this isn't a match race.

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Old 04-16-2002, 08:29 PM   #8
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Actually, I would argue that HH's race on Saturday made every other entrant into the Derby that much more legitimate because HH was the most solid Derby threat up until last weekend (in my opinion). And in the Blue Grass, he appeared very vulnerable (at least to me).


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Old 04-16-2002, 08:30 PM   #9
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I agree that Harlan's Holiday is probably getting too much respect. I think he is an unlikely winner as is Came Home. Actually more unlikely in some ways. For example, Came Home has better pace and speed figures.

I am looking at War Emblem as a mild sleeper. There may not be much speed in the race. His Beyer is the highest of any in the field. His pace figures are solid (solid for this crop). I consider Medaglia D'Oro, Buddha and War Emblem as the top contenders. They are the only horses who have approached or equaled the final times normally displayed by Derby winners in their preps. Too many of the others are running 95-99 Beyers. I usually do not use Beyers, but believe they have some added usefulness in finding the contenders in the Derby. Especially horses who have repeatedly run sub-standard Beyers. Those horese need to improve, yet, because of their numerous races, are unlikely yo improve.

Harlan's Holiday is too slow in my opinion. Since he is not lightly raced, I see no reason to expect improvement in the Derby. Came Home has a chance to run a big number, but pedigree looms. But at least he has a chance.

I am throwing out all those who have shown two or more times recently that they are not close to Derby pars. I will accept any lightly raced horse who has shown recent improvement. But I need long odds. I will take any of the three listed above at 8:1 or higher. War Emblem is the only one who will go at those odds. Actually, Medaglia D'Oro may too. Harlan's will be favored, Buddha will be the 2nd choice and Came Home and Johannesburg will get action. So, Medaglia has a chance to go as the 5th choice in a 16-20 horse field. He could be 8:1. I'll play improving sorts at 20:1 keyed with the three mentioned above.

My improving sorts the last three years: Charismatic, Aptitude, Invisible Ink and Thunder Blitz. We look to continue.

Last edited by tanda; 04-16-2002 at 08:32 PM.
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Old 04-16-2002, 09:15 PM   #10
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I agree that SAARLAND has been a monumental disappointment. The horse has no tactical speed and just lumbers along picking up some minor awards.

PERFECT DRIFT's last race made a very strong impression on me. The horse looked a picture. (Being a big, healthy Dynaformer doesn't hurt.) And when Eddie D. started scrubbing on him, he just went right by those horses and made it look effortless. Not much more than a canter.

It's hard to find fault with the other competitors mentioned from last weekend's races. It's interesting that ESSENCE OF DUBAI isn't getting any respect on this board, or any of the others that I hang out at. Hopefully he will show up in Kentucky soon, so that we can see how he gets along at CD in the morning.
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Old 04-16-2002, 09:36 PM   #11
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Talking Wood Memorial

I am still scratching my head over this race the Quirin Pace/Speed numbers are unbelievable! My first pass gives the race something like a 135 - 119 !
The pace of 1:10 was incredible, but since there was only one one-turn route Saturday, I can't really accept that number without more checking. If these figs hold up, there is no question that this was the fastest prep by daylight. But too fast?
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Old 04-16-2002, 09:49 PM   #12
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I have similar findings for the race, 118-105 on a Beyer scale, way faster than anything else. By comparison, the SA Derby was 106-96, and the Blue Grass 108-98. The Ill Derby was also huge, though loose on the lead frontrunners do this, at 112-110. I think the Fla Derby was fast early too, around 117-101, something like that.

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Old 04-16-2002, 10:35 PM   #13
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Interesting posts. I have not seen any figures yet, but they confirm my intitial thoughts above.

I do think Essence of Dubai has a chance, but I need a price.

I just think we have some horses with big names who have shown they are too damn slow: Saarland and Harlan's Holiday come to mind.

I know War Emblem's figures may be biased, but at least he has run a top quality set of figures. His problem is that maybe his figs are not legit. Harlan's problem is that his figs probably ARE legit. I take War Emblem at a mid-price or higher and toss Harlan (in terms of win). Also, War Emblem did show improvement in his previous race, so he fits the pattern of an improving 3yo.

I do not know much of Perfect Drift or Private Emblem but they are candidates to improve.
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Old 04-16-2002, 10:54 PM   #14
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Talking Wrong Shape

Quote:
Originally posted by cjmilkowski
I have similar findings for the race, 118-105 on a Beyer scale, way faster than anything else. By comparison, the SA Derby was 106-96, and the Blue Grass 108-98. The Ill Derby was also huge, though loose on the lead frontrunners do this, at 112-110. I think the Fla Derby was fast early too, around 117-101, something like that.

CJ
I like to see a race shape just the opposite for this class and distance - a couple of lengths slower early than late. I think we might have a repeat of last year's suicide pace with a stout closer getting the money. Too early yet, but I am going to do figs on all the preps, with a little help from Andy Beyer and Dave Schwratz.
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Old 04-20-2002, 01:52 AM   #15
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Cool get ready

guys look at saarlands last race closely the first time velqz
tried to make a move he got cut off saarland almost pulled up,
then he tried making a 4 wide move after a the horse was
taken off his game .we all know that was just to much to ask for
him to do.
now look at saarlands pastperformances really close the
gotham had a lone speed in it right where was he at each 1/4
behind that wicked pace .looked at how much ground he covered
at the end remember the key was there was only 1 speed.
come derby day waremblem will feel the preasure of mel d oro
and saarland should be kept closer to the pace.
a couple of races down the performances he also ran near the
pace ,to me thats where he does his best running.
shuggy has been trying him from all the way back to being
close as far as 5th at the half.this horse has a cannon of a move
and is so lightly raced it can release it come may 4th.
so watch out here comes the train with
the loot........I have $120.00 on him in pool #1 so far at least hes running .......
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