New Derby threat? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

cj · 03-23-2002, 01:37 PM

Essence of Dubai comes from last in a 14 horse field going 1 1/4m to defeat a 4yo who had run a 102 Beyer in his last start at SA. Clearly, this horse grew up a lot since the Breeders Cup in October. Does anyone think this horse has a legitimate shot come the first Saturday in May?

CJ

rrbauer · 03-23-2002, 02:11 PM

CJ
Going into the UAE Derby, EOD was the only 3YO Godolphin runner that their racing manager had much good to say about with regard to the US Triple Crown races. I would gauge his prospects based on whether they send him over, or not. They have (at least publicly) stated that they're not interested in coming over to the US just to run in the Derby, but rather they'll come, and run, when they think that they can win.

cj · 03-23-2002, 02:16 PM

Richard,

They've come and ran some real stinkers in the past, so I take what they say with a grain of salt. That said, this is the first time I've really been impressed with one of their runners, though. With most runners in the US failing to hit the 100 Beyer mark all year, this one could be interesting.

CJ

PaceAdvantage · 03-23-2002, 11:27 PM

Essence Of Dubai did an amazing thing today. Not only did he go the Derby distance of a mile and a quarter in MARCH, but he BEAT OLDER HORSES!! Never before in recent memory has a 3yo done so much so early...quite an accomplishment...

==PA

Observer · 03-24-2002, 12:09 AM

I personally am not allowing myself to get excited about Essence of Dubai.

First of all, the UAE Derby is a race for 3-year-olds. The "4yos" are those bred in the Southern Hemisphere. By U.S. standards, they are technically 4yos, based on the Jan. 1 birthday rule, but I guess by Dubai standards, they are permitted to fit into this race, though they were assigned nine more pounds then the Northern Hemisphere horses.

Second, isn't anyone concerned about how Essence of Dubai will bounce back from this race? And what is their plan now .. go straight to the Derby?

Finally, doesn't anyone think maybe Godolphin should consider using a race in America as a final prep into the Derby, just to at least help the horses acclimate to our surroundings? Just because this horse was here as a juvenile doesn't mean he'll handle the switch back here without being given ample time.

bdhsheets · 03-28-2002, 10:28 PM

As in the past, they do things THEIR way. In the beginning europeans were unbelieving in their methods, showing up out of the blue winning big time races without the proper prep races and training. Now everyone in Europe respects any Godolphin entrant.

As for them really not wanting to win the Derby, that's plain silly. They've taylored the Nas al Sheba (I think that's what they call their track in Dubai) dirt track to be exactly like Churchill Downs. They'll win the Roses soon enough.

Gvido

charleslanger · 03-29-2002, 04:03 AM

they won't win until they base their horses here and forego the transatlantic trips...

cj · 03-29-2002, 05:02 AM

Quote:

they won't win until they base their horses here and forego the transatlantic trips... charleslanger

Why is that Charles? Seems to me horses win right off the boat every year at the Breeder's Cup. Just curious what your thinking is to make that comment.

CJ

andicap · 03-29-2002, 08:14 AM

Bounce shouldn't be factor. Plenty of time for rest. Bounce IS a big factor off the Wood because it's only 3 weeks. One theory on why Wood horses rarely win the Derby and why it seems horses that don't race that great (but OK) in the Blue Grass can win the Derby (I'm remembering Sea Hero).

cj · 03-29-2002, 08:25 AM

I think the reason horses who don't run well in the Blue Grass "bounce back" is that Keeneland is a very Speed Favoring track all the time, so closers who run there don't necessarily show their true form. It happens all the time in the Derby, and last year's BC Distaff was another example, as Unbridled Elaine came strong through the lane following a lackluster Spinster.

Just for the record, Wood horses seem to do just fine in the Derby. For some reason, the race fell out of favor with trainers for a short spell in the mid 90s and drew weak fields, leading to poor Derby showings, but over the last five years or so it has come back strong.

CJ

andicap · 03-29-2002, 10:10 AM

Hmmm. You might be right. they did move the race back one week to give horses another 7 days to rest....not that many winners, but the horses ARE competitive in the Derby. Preakness doesn't count because a) horses have more time to recover b) Pimlico suits Wood speed horses better than Churchill

cj · 03-29-2002, 10:30 AM

Not many winners? The last two have used the Wood as there final Prep.

NO race really shows a large amount of winners, they have come from all over the country the last 15 years or so.

CJ

Observer · 03-29-2002, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by andicap
Bounce shouldn't be factor. Plenty of time for rest. Bounce IS a big factor off the Wood because it's only 3 weeks. One theory on why Wood horses rarely win the Derby and why it seems horses that don't race that great (but OK) in the Blue Grass can win the Derby (I'm remembering Sea Hero).

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but the Wood and Blue Grass are both on the same day .. both have been part of the Big Three Pick 3 for more than a few years. I believe the first year was in 1996. So if they're both 3 weeks, how is the bounce factor so big for the Wood?

I agree with CJ .. the past two Derby winners have come from the Wood. Every race takes it's turn, so I don't think it's fair to cast horses out simply based on the prep they run in. Let the horses performances be the criteria.