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01-30-2019, 06:34 PM
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#1
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Race Player
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Home of the brave.
Posts: 1,044
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Robert B. Lewis Stakes PPs
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Nothing endures but change.
- Heraclitus 535-475 BC
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01-30-2019, 09:37 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 1,047
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Betting against gunmetal here. Baffert horse looks like this is the maximum distance he will want. Getting beat by 5 lengths to improbable looks good on paper but idk if I'm sold.
I'll look to take a stab with the Sadler horse Nolo Contesto. Will begrudgingly use GG underneath as well as Kid Cantina who will make his second start on fast dirt and looks to close from off the pace.
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01-31-2019, 12:52 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Bakersfield, CA
Posts: 1,791
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Doesn't look to be anything in here that can go with Baffert's horse on the front end. For that reason I think Mucho Gusto wins, to easy for him early on.
I like Gunmetal Gray better in the long run though.
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01-31-2019, 01:47 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,652
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I don't have much to add here. Looks like a weak field. I expect the Baffert to to attempt a theft as there is no other horse that has flashed the same 3/4 speed. I was not impressed with Gunmetal's Sham win but will give credit for making a 4-wide move and get the job done. He could have some company closing from Nolo Contesto and possibly Magnificent Cool if the last out turf tactics are reapplied here.
I'll probably play a / trifecta and sprinkle in the in the super. Maybe throw the on top a ticket or two in case I get outclassed again.
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01-31-2019, 02:20 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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May be a sloppy track.
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01-31-2019, 05:17 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,652
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
May be a sloppy track.
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That's almost a given unless the race is rescheduled. They cancelled a card couple weeks ago for heavy rain.
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01-31-2019, 05:57 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Baystater
Posts: 3,513
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Magnificent McCool looks like an interesting play. Turf to dirt. Prat and O'Neill combo 80% win last 60 days. Worked 59.3 5f handily on 19 January.
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01-31-2019, 08:52 PM
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#8
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Race Player
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Home of the brave.
Posts: 1,044
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Soft LP w/an off track . . .
Hard to deny the Baffert colt Mucho Gusto in this one.
He shows a nice series of works but none quite Baffert like - blistering w/bullets. I've seen Baffert work em' 7f in 1:25 n/c so the 1:26.2 is nice but relatively soft - the standard being 1:27; the 1:12.3 is sharp. What about his pattern of development? Why enter him @ only 40k, then a G3 @7f? The G1 Los Al was the next logical step, but he was up against it deep stretch w/Improbable. His Achilles appears to be his LP, he may be vulnerable to a late charge deep stretch.
If MG gets the uncontested lead, game over he wires em'. Nolo Contesto shows a good turn of foot early in his last. If Nolo, or anyone else goes w/MG early, MG may be vulnerable late. I figure Sadler sends Nolo, doesn't have any other choice. If Nolo goes w/MG, sets up for Gunmetal Gray. Sad thing is GG's recent speed figures aren't particularly inspiring - he'll need to step up here. Rain most of the afternoon, w/a 70% chance post time.
__________________
Nothing endures but change.
- Heraclitus 535-475 BC
Last edited by Blenheim; 01-31-2019 at 09:01 PM.
Reason: Change sentence . . .
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01-31-2019, 09:00 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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Mucho Gusto has the high TimeformUS number. He's the one to beat.
Gunmetal Gray's running style isn't good for this pace scenario. If Mucho Gusto fails, it feels like Nolo Contesto is the one since he will get first run.
Easy Shot has a small chance, but I believe the Sham was a weak race.
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02-02-2019, 11:10 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,873
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I just dont see a tremendous amount of talent here unless a horse makes a giant leap forward.
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02-02-2019, 11:31 AM
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#11
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,568
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sow's ear
Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
Mucho Gusto has the high TimeformUS number. He's the one to beat.
Gunmetal Gray's running style isn't good for this pace scenario. If Mucho Gusto fails, it feels like Nolo Contesto is the one since he will get first run.
Easy Shot has a small chance, but I believe the Sham was a weak race.
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I have similar thoughts concerning Nolo Contesto vs. Gunmetal Gray.
Will certainly* glance at the exacta probables to see if 'all' the money comes in for Gunmetal Gray in the exacta under Mucho Gusto,... but it's going to be slim pickings in this short field of six, with only three viable contenders...
*actually change that "certainly" to; "if I'm not busy, or headed out of the house by that time"... Not enough value on paper for me to change my schedule. If I'm not headed out yet, I'll give it a glance...
Can Nolo win outright? Sure, but there's no real negative to Mucho, and it's a poor field(for betting) with little upside(again, for betting, not commentary on Mucho or Nolo). It may be a horse race, and Nolo could happen to win, but it's not any great overlay.
Disappointing because Gunmetal Gray was ripe for a bet-against. He's a very popular horse, and he comes off a great trip vs Coliseum. If I'm lucky Mucho and Nolo will duel and Gunmetal Gray will plod into a pace collapse win, so I can bet against him next time in a full field... but I doubt it.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 02-02-2019 at 11:36 AM.
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02-02-2019, 12:07 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Gun metal Gray fits the mold of the horse who rounds out the derby super finishing 4th.
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02-02-2019, 03:34 PM
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#13
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 113,006
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Nolo Contesto is scratched.
Track is wet
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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02-02-2019, 06:59 PM
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#14
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Sartin Methodology Fan
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Earth
Posts: 328
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No surprise that Mucho Gusto won it. Gun Metal Gray had a piece of the back of his left front hoof (looked like it was grabbed) chunked out after the race. Kid Cantina was euthanized.
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"And there they go! It's Toupée going on ahead, Long Underwear has fallen behind, Toothpaste is being squeezed out on the rail as Banana joins the bunch, and Cabbage is trailing by a head."
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02-03-2019, 09:39 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,362
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Anyone see interesting derby prospect Omaha Beach break his maiden yesterday flying by 10... Want to see him step up in class but one to keep an eye on for sure.
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