Quote:
Originally posted by First_Place
Does anyone know where I can get an Equibase speed figure par chart like the one for Beyer speed figures in James Quinn's Handicapper's Condition Book? Personally, I've never seen one for Equibase numbers. My racing form of choice is The Daily Racing Advance (and at times the pocket-sized Daily Racing Program by same company)
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I've never seen the Racing Advance, but apparently, the local indian casinos use an equibase past performance, so I started on the project several months ago and never got back to it. Here is the little information I've found on the Trackmaster website. I left in the class information because they are closely connected:
"EQUIBASE CLASS RATINGS :
Revised in early 2003, the Class Ratings are based on projected finishing time based on the speed ratings of the individual horses coming into each race. Our research showed us how to take the last six months of speed ratings from all of the entrants in a race, and make the best possible predication as to the winning time.
So while in the past a Belmont Open Allowance race for Non-winners of 3 might have had a Class Rating of 88 (based on a par time), today it could have an 85 with a particularly weak field, or a 91 with a particularly strong field.
In sum, the old Class Ratings could be described as a relative rating of the TYPE OF RACE at a given track. The new, more powerful Class Ratings are best described as a relative rating for a GIVEN FIELD OF HORSES in a given race at a given track.
EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURES:
Speed Figures are calculated in three basic steps.
First, a "raw" SR is computed using the parallel time chart discussed above.
Second, the "raw" SR is adjusted by the appropriate Intertrack Variant (as mentioned above). Finally, the adjusted SR is further adjusted by the Daily Track Variant ("DTV"). The DTV is computed using a proprietary formula which computes the difference (or deviation) between the winning times at a specific track and the appropriate par times, for each racing day.
These deviations are then analyzed again to determine the final DTV.
Note: There can be multiple DTVs on a given day if conditions change sufficiently through the day to affect the underlying condition of the track.
There are always distinct DTVs for each race course at a given track (e.g. dirt, turf, inner turf).
CLASS RATINGS AND SPEED FIGURES WORKING TOGETHER:
If a Class Rating from a previous race were 80 and a given horse ran a Speed Rating of 75, it is inferred that the horse finished 5 rating points off par, after all adjustments have been taken into account. To put things in perspective, a rating point is about 0.20 seconds at a mile race, 0.15 seconds at 6 furlongs (¾ of a mile), and about 0.25 seconds at 1¼ miles.
For an overly simplistic view, you are not too far off to use a rating point as a length (actually, a length is very close to 1/6 or 0.167 seconds at the end of a race).
Class Ratings (CR) - TrackMaster class ratings are on a scale from 50 to 100 reflecting the difficulty of the race. A top class (Stakes) race might have a class rating (abbreviated CR) of 100; a $10,000 Claiming race might have a CR of 70. By comparing the CR of today's race and the CRs for each horse's recent races you will know if the horse is moving up or down in class that is, if he is in an easier or more difficult race than he has been in recently.
TrackMaster speed rating (SR)- tells you how fast a horse has been running in its recent races. It is based on the horse's actual time and other factors, such as the condition of the track. A horse who races in top class races might earn a SR of 100 for a good performance; a $10,000 Claimer might earn a 60 for an average performance. Like the class rating, the speed rating is weighted for different tracks, distances and conditions. A horse that runs consistently in the 80s at Laurel Race Course should be competitive with horses that run in the 80s at Philadelphia Park.
Track variant - The track variant is calculated by TrackMaster . The track variant is computed using a proprietary formula which computes the difference etween the winning times at a specific track and the appropriate par times. The resulting number is then either added or subtracted to the speed ratings to adjust for various surfaces. For example, a track variant of +2 indicates that the track was running slow. Therefore, the speed figure of the horse would be increased by 2 to compensate. If the track variant was -3, indicating a fast track, the speed rating would be reduced by 3.
As for a test, we tested the TrackMaster speed rating against Beyer
randomly in over 6000 races. The results were almost identical. Both
showed a flat bet loss when betting either the last top, average of last 3 top, and average of last 10 top ratings. The difference was in ROI, as the TM speed rating, not having the publicity of the Beyer, showed about a 4 point advantage over the Beyer.
Ellis Starr"
Its a start the other information I found is a comparison chart located at:
http://www.chef-de-race.com/pfs/comp...speed_figs.htm
Hopefully that will get you close to take reasonable shots at it. If you actually get around to doing the hard work of putting the thing together, I would gretly appreciate a copy.
Hope it helps,
socantra...
