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Old 03-03-2018, 12:59 PM   #1
Lemon Drop Husker
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R13 Gulfstream G2 Mac Diarmida Stakes

1 3/8ths Mile on the Turf $200K 4YOs and upward

Seems like a free square for horizontal plays with the Sadler's Joy. Is it really that easy?

Sadler's Joy: Serious and legit G1 turf horse who could be argued as the best routing turf horse in the entire country right now. Really solid effort in the BC Turf in which he was only defeated by the best of the best. This Kitten's Joy offspring rolls into his 5YO season with extremely big expectations. Little doubt this is the horse to beat.

Some in Tieme: A distance horse, no doubt, but this is a tall order. Solidly beaten in a G3 at Sam Houston last out. These are significantly better.

One Go All Go: Connections seriously need to start placing this horse in better spots. This isn't one of them.

Muqtaser: An improving and very interesting gelding. A very lightly raced 6YO that is 11 for 16 in hitting the board. Last 2 races show some serious promise. Contender.

Markitoff: Maker and Saez give this horse a 2nd look, but he is up against it in here. Like that he is a 4YO, but can't see any way he beats this field.

Gold Shield: A hard knocker that will show up and run his race. Just a notch or two below the best in here.

Bernay: Tough read. Can't dismiss due to the Brown factor, but couldn't beat OC$35K at first asking in the states. 6 time winner has to be somewhat respected in his 2nd effort in the States. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if this one ran a huge one today.

Patterson Cross: Lightly raced horse that has had solid expectations. Always well placed, and almost always runs well. Hasn't raced in nearly a year, but is certainly dangerous. At the very least you have to include in exotics.

Nessy: 2nditis at large. 6 times he has ran 2nd with only 2 lifetime wins. And that includes his last 2 against others in here. His numbers are as good as any in here, but he just doesn't win. You'll likely get a good price if you see him getting over the hump today.

Run Time: Back to back wins including a 2 mile jaunt last out. Rosario in the irons isn't the best news, and the class angle with this one has to be seriously questioned. I'd be surprised if he hits the Superfecta.

Big Bend: You have to cross off his last two to like this guy. I often like 4YOs in their early turf racing season, and this guy is really interesting to me. His race in the G3 Sycamore was really good. Can he come close to that one again, or maybe even improve on it? Should be a monster price, and you have some things to like.

Oscar Nominated: Ramseys/Maker/Kitten's Joy. Do we need to go any further on a big racing day? He has won $1.4 million and has romped on this course before just last out. May not get the price you want if you like him, but he is an obvious contender in here.

SUMMARY: Sadler's Joy is gonna be tough to beat, but there are a couple in here I'm gonna try at likely big odds. Muqtaser and Patterson Cross seem like legit contenders at big numbers.

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Old 03-03-2018, 01:45 PM   #2
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Can't find a horse would bet to show in this race - the might win it, but he will not get any respect if does. This field is atrocious. A lot of these have walked faster in the paddock than they race. And most of the finished look much better than they really are.

If you held a gun to my head and gave me $2, I'd take the Nessy at 10-1 or better. At least we have proof the horse lived through the winter.

If I don't get 10-1, I'll put the $2 on a lottery ticket - much better chance IMHO!
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Old 03-03-2018, 01:53 PM   #3
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[quote=Tom;2285439]Can't find a horse would bet to show in this race - the might win it, but he will not get any respect if does. This field is atrocious. A lot of these have walked faster in the paddock than they race. And most of the finished look much better than they really are.

If you held a gun to my head and gave me $2, I'd take the Nessy at 10-1 or better. At least we have proof the horse lived through the winter.

If I don't get 10-1, I'll put the $2 on a lottery ticket - much better chance IMHO!

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Old 03-03-2018, 03:25 PM   #4
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3 looks like a fairly easy lead if wants to IMO
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Old 03-03-2018, 03:38 PM   #5
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I think I could get the lead in here if I wanted it.
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Old 03-03-2018, 04:07 PM   #6
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I think I could get the lead in here if I wanted it.
Well, it is a mile and 3/8ths.

Go get it.
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Old 03-03-2018, 04:14 PM   #7
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I would, but I don't want to show up those who race for a living.
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Old 03-03-2018, 04:14 PM   #8
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TOUGH TOUGH RACE

Sadler's Joy: Obvious must use and must emphasize. Poor value.


Some in Tieme: not for me today

One Go All Go: not for me today. Is an important factor in the makeup of the race. Should he fail to show up, the 12 benefits. If he's game, the closers should devour the stretch run.

Muqtaser: Vertical exotics. Wouldn't embarrass/shock, but more of a willing relentless type.

Markitoff: not for me today

Gold Shield: Irad will patiently wait for his brother Jose to blow the race open, however there are other, better stretch-runners. Could include on wider spreads.

Bernay: The value. Closes wide for contending effort today, and Dubb HOP have another bullet for BEL/SAR to be used however he turns out. Doesn't have to be a superstar G1 to be useful.

Patterson Cross: Pretty figures, but the layoff is bad here. Not ripe yet, and a summer campaign is more than just one crazy effort off a layoff that puts him back on the bench. Tries to sit a trip today. Not for me.

Nessy: Tempting to key exactly 4th in a super and exactly 3rd in a tri.

Run Time: Hell of a closer. Will use exactly as Nessy, and cry if he manages to reach the exacta.

Big Bend: Not for me today.


Oscar Nominated: Jose will likely take the initiative, perhaps even a bit prematurely, and force others to earn a win. I don't think he'll hang on. Guessing he's
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Old 03-03-2018, 04:31 PM   #9
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TOUGH TOUGH RACE
And you selection is....?
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Old 03-03-2018, 04:33 PM   #10
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TOUGH TOUGH RACE

Sadler's Joy: Obvious must use and must emphasize. Poor value.


Some in Tieme: not for me today

One Go All Go: not for me today. Is an important factor in the makeup of the race. Should he fail to show up, the 12 benefits. If he's game, the closers should devour the stretch run.

Muqtaser: Vertical exotics. Wouldn't embarrass/shock, but more of a willing relentless type.

Markitoff: not for me today

Gold Shield: Irad will patiently wait for his brother Jose to blow the race open, however there are other, better stretch-runners. Could include on wider spreads.

Bernay: The value. Closes wide for contending effort today, and Dubb HOP have another bullet for BEL/SAR to be used however he turns out. Doesn't have to be a superstar G1 to be useful.

Patterson Cross: Pretty figures, but the layoff is bad here. Not ripe yet, and a summer campaign is more than just one crazy effort off a layoff that puts him back on the bench. Tries to sit a trip today. Not for me.

Nessy: Tempting to key exactly 4th in a super and exactly 3rd in a tri.

Run Time: Hell of a closer. Will use exactly as Nessy, and cry if he manages to reach the exacta.

Big Bend: Not for me today.


Oscar Nominated: Jose will likely take the initiative, perhaps even a bit prematurely, and force others to earn a win. I don't think he'll hang on. Guessing he's
My plays are the 1,7,11
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Old 03-03-2018, 04:41 PM   #11
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And you selection is....?
= my selection


have to include the 1 on any real ticket.


may key 9,10 under a gimmick
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Old 03-03-2018, 05:02 PM   #12
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I like the in here
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Old 03-03-2018, 05:09 PM   #13
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I like the in here

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Old 03-03-2018, 05:35 PM   #14
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All in on the

GL all
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Old 03-03-2018, 05:44 PM   #15
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I'm on the 6 and some 8.
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