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Old 03-02-2018, 03:00 PM   #16
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I have not seen anything remotely resembling this ever in the pools I've seen in North America, the track total usually dwarfs the exchange total. Granted, I use the exchange infrequently, but the main reason for the infrequent use is the small amount of liquidity in the exchange relative to the amount I'm looking to bet.

I will track Tampa Bay's races tomorrow for a comparison & will come back here with results.

If you're a small to mid-range player though, the exchange offers some really solid opportunities, particularly if you prefer longer priced horses.

This thread has not been my finest moment...checked out the first 5 races from Tampa today, each race the track win pool total was greater than the exchange, by about 20-25% when they left the gate, and once factoring in-play wagering the total of exchange vs. track was pretty similar. Definitely not the dwarfing amount I thought earlier.

Not sure why the matched figures jump around so much, agree that I don't think you could cancel a wager, although there is a cash out feature which maybe reduces total, even though it is technically matching more to other players.
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Old 03-02-2018, 03:14 PM   #17
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This thread has not been my finest moment...checked out the first 5 races from Tampa today, each race the track win pool total was greater than the exchange, by about 20-25% when they left the gate, and once factoring in-play wagering the total of exchange vs. track was pretty similar. Definitely not the dwarfing amount I thought earlier.

Not sure why the matched figures jump around so much, agree that I don't think you could cancel a wager, although there is a cash out feature which maybe reduces total, even though it is technically matching more to other players.
They jump around because some people play the moves. Say early in betting you can back at 3.00 for $10 and during betting can lay at 2.00 for $10 they have made $10. A great exercise for people who like to dutch and/or know there will be late money on a favorite that has not showed up on the exchange yet.
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Old 03-02-2018, 04:00 PM   #18
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Also confirmed with them that the pools showing for instance $100 matched means $100 was put up on each side, so this is not a doubling of the actual handle.
I don't know what to say other than that you were misinformed.
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Old 03-02-2018, 04:07 PM   #19
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They jump around because some people play the moves. Say early in betting you can back at 3.00 for $10 and during betting can lay at 2.00 for $10 they have made $10. A great exercise for people who like to dutch and/or know there will be late money on a favorite that has not showed up on the exchange yet.
Actually, the jumping appears to be nothing more than a glitch. If you check the international exchange, the number always appears stable and moves only up. The USA display seems to bounce up and down for some reason, most likely a programming error. When people trade out, it does not reduce the volume, it actually increases it. For instance, if I back a horse for $20 and you lay the full amount, $40 is added to the volume. 1 minute later, if we do it in reverse and I lay and you back the same horse you just layed for another $20, another $40 is added to volume. So you have $80 of volume with no outstanding positions. That is another reason the exchange liquidity can look higher than it really is.
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Old 03-02-2018, 04:19 PM   #20
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I don't know what to say other than that you were misinformed.
https://betting.betfair.com/betfair-...61017-710.html

The pertinent excerpt is:

"If I place a £10 back bet at odds of 2.00, it will enter the market unmatched. If the price is right, another market participant may choose to match by bet with a £10 lay bet.

Now, both of our bets have been matched. This now means the total volume matched in the market is £20."
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Old 03-02-2018, 06:07 PM   #21
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Actually, the jumping appears to be nothing more than a glitch. If you check the international exchange, the number always appears stable and moves only up. The USA display seems to bounce up and down for some reason, most likely a programming error. When people trade out, it does not reduce the volume, it actually increases it. For instance, if I back a horse for $20 and you lay the full amount, $40 is added to the volume. 1 minute later, if we do it in reverse and I lay and you back the same horse you just layed for another $20, another $40 is added to volume. So you have $80 of volume with no outstanding positions. That is another reason the exchange liquidity can look higher than it really is.
you are correct for matched - do they use $USD in Europe or Euro's? How do they handle exchange rate?
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Old 03-02-2018, 06:29 PM   #22
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you are correct for matched - do they use $USD in Europe or Euro's? How do they handle exchange rate?
These are the available currencies:
UK Sterling
Euro
US Dollar
Hong Kong Dollar
Australian Dollar
Danish Krone
Swedish Krona

I don't know exactly how the currency exchange works since you don't actually know your counter party. I'm sure it's on the up and up though.

Regarding the counting the stakes twice towards volume, I don't think it's the wrong way or the right way, it's just the way it's done. I just mentioned it because it's important to keep in mind when comparing to the parimutuel pool.

I'm not sure if they still do, but I think Betfair's competitor, Betdaq, used to add backer's stake plus layer's liability to volume. So if I back 10 to profit 20 on a horse and it is matched, Betfair counts 20 (10 + 10) towards volume, but Betdaq counts 30 (10 + 20). I think the Betfair is better.
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Old 03-02-2018, 06:57 PM   #23
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They jump around because some people play the moves. Say early in betting you can back at 3.00 for $10 and during betting can lay at 2.00 for $10 they have made $10. A great exercise for people who like to dutch and/or know there will be late money on a favorite that has not showed up on the exchange yet.
That's common with Betfair; it's known as 'arbitrage,' a lot of people are into it, and there are bots that scour the Betfair markets 24/7 looking for such advantages. It's especially popular with the Brits in the U.K. races.
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Old 03-03-2018, 12:54 AM   #24
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The matched total moves $1000 or more every time you click, so I doubt if it's anything more than programming weirdness.
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Old 03-03-2018, 10:25 PM   #25
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I don't know what to say other than that you were misinformed.
That would be unfortunate - does seem disingenuous to post a liquidity amount that is really double the amount of wagers essentially. I see a lot of race liquidity totals as odd numbers so figured that would mean they're not double counting, but I guess this is explained by some wagers that are filled for less than whole dollars?

Pretty impressive feat for my statements in this thread to be 0 for 3 in validity, guess I'm trying to keep pace with my win selections as well.
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Old 03-04-2018, 07:44 AM   #26
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That's common with Betfair; it's known as 'arbitrage,' a lot of people are into it, and there are bots that scour the Betfair markets 24/7 looking for such advantages. It's especially popular with the Brits in the U.K. races.
The bots are great. Hell I have had bets matched at $0.01 by the bots.
Bots are stupid and can be beaten with common sense. The one thing annoying as hell is bots mimicking my bets. I lay a horse at 5.00 for 10. And suddenly itís 20 due to bots. I am a 2 year player on the exchange and won money both in 2016 and 2017, mostly laying horses. Off to a profitable start in 2018.

I am a very active trader. In the last two days I was matched on 160 bets in 29 markets for an average of 5 bets per market.

I grind out a profit doing this. Itís not easy. But then again if it was easy everyone would do it.

I really like the uk markets, although there are many sharps and bots there.

Tread lightly in the uk there if you are just starting out. Better to stick with the American markets for beginners.

Also I like the in-running betting on the long races, short races hard to get a bet matched but the longer races I have had more success and itís a blast when a horse you like goes up in price in the market because the horse is a late runner.

Allan
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Old 03-04-2018, 07:58 AM   #27
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I have not seen anything remotely resembling this ever in the pools I've seen in North America, the track total usually dwarfs the exchange total. Granted, I use the exchange infrequently, but the main reason for the infrequent use is the small amount of liquidity in the exchange relative to the amount I'm looking to bet.

I will track Tampa Bay's races tomorrow for a comparison & will come back here with results.

If you're a small to mid-range player though, the exchange offers some really solid opportunities, particularly if you prefer longer priced horses.
If you bet the uk races, there is plenty of liquidity And you can get your bet matched whatever the amount. You see $1,000,000 plus volumes on an everyday basis on uk races. Of course with greater volumes you get more sharps and bots competing for a profit.

The exchange is not about picking winners but making a profit. I tell myself that everyday I am on the exchange.

Allan
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Old 03-04-2018, 12:12 PM   #28
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That would be unfortunate - does seem disingenuous to post a liquidity amount that is really double the amount of wagers essentially. I see a lot of race liquidity totals as odd numbers so figured that would mean they're not double counting, but I guess this is explained by some wagers that are filled for less than whole dollars?

Pretty impressive feat for my statements in this thread to be 0 for 3 in validity, guess I'm trying to keep pace with my win selections as well.
Actually, come to think of it, the way they present it is not all that bad. If anything, it understates the volume in some ways.

Take the example of a 2 horse race with Bettors A and Bettor B. Say it was parimutuel and Bettor A bets $400 on horse #1 and Bettor B bets $100 on horse #2. Total win pool is $500.

Now instead of betting through the parimutuel system, Bettor B puts out a bet of $100 at 4/1 odds and it is accepted by Bettor A who now has a liability of $400.

Certainly the same amount of risk applies in both situations. The win pool at the track would be shown as $500. Some people would say Betfair should only display volume of $100. In this case, they would actually have displayed $200, but one could certainly argue maybe they should show it as $500.

Bottom line is that it's tough to make comparisons on the actual volume on the exchange versus the track win pool by just looking at the total volume on the exchange as it can be deceptive for the reason noted above but also because it does not take into account people trading both sides of the same horse.
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Old 03-06-2018, 05:55 PM   #29
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Dang, I'd love to give this a shot. Gosh darn government telling me where I can't spend my $$
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Old 03-26-2018, 04:21 PM   #30
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Anyone who's in NJ and has access to Betfair have any interest in setting up a small group to studying the tick data? I don't have access unfortunately, but would love to check it out and contribute.
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