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Old 03-06-2018, 11:43 PM   #31
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FWIW Stonestreet tweeted out that they thought he ran well and are looking forward to his next race
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Old 03-07-2018, 03:24 AM   #32
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Good horses should at least make a move or contend with a slow pace. At least Catholic Boy engaged the leader in the stretch and McKenzie went by with ease and won with something left. I will give him a pass and watch the next race, he may have needed the race, some do. But if he runs as poorly as he did in the stretch in his next it would be a big red flag.
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Old 03-07-2018, 03:48 PM   #33
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pull the juvenile out of his past performances and what does it look like? Id expect more for a million dollar horse with a million dollar pedigree.
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Old 03-07-2018, 05:24 PM   #34
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Good Magic: Still an 'A/B' ??

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pull the juvenile out of his past performances and what does it look like? Id expect more for a million dollar horse with a million dollar pedigree.

How did we have him in the Juvenile?

I had him as one of several 'A's. My reasoning that day was that the favorite was Bolt D'oro, and that favorite had both some questions and a really bad post.
I used Good Magic, Bolt, and a couple/few others as an 'A'.
Someone could even justify using Good Magic as a 'B'. The main idea is that he was 'one of the contenders'.

He happened to win the Juvenile. That win kind of reinforced/justified the opinion that he was one of the good horses and could be one of several 'A's in a top 3yo race. As cool a horse as he is, and as good a trainer as he has, and even as cool as his name is, - I don't think he was suddenly to be considered a dominant Triple Crown winner.

Derby futures opened, and he was a (the?) favorite, based on being the best 'logical' known quantity.

I have a FB friend who got in line in LV and bought some futures on Justify @ 100-1. Haven't checked but I'd assume that the current or next updates will have Good Magic and
Justify rather close in odds, so he got an overlay. If he happened to buy a bunch or had the inclination to sell, he could 'book' the Justify futures and still hold enough for a score.

We all saw the Fountain of Youth. More questions than answers. If we 'extrapolate' the slow pace, then the winner and place horse are in doubt, and Good Magic, Machismo, and Marconi are all upgrades.
However, - 'extrapolation' is always a worse value than a 'known' truth.

I don't think Good Magic did so terrible as to not be the same 'one of several A's' type of horse. Or if you love another horse in the next race, maybe Good Magic is a 'B' and the horse you like is the lone 'A'.
A crude comparison may be someone like Cloud Computing from 2017. A very nice horse for Chad Brown. Didn't win every race or win the Triple Crown, but he happened to be a nice score for his backers on Preakness day.
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Old 03-09-2018, 01:34 PM   #35
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I called that immediately, how do you bet this horse as a favorite in that spot --- 3 year old, early still in the season, with those odds? As may have been the case, they also might just be gearing him up.

Admittedly, I didn't have a horse I loved, so I stayed away. But I felt the toss the favorite angle was fairly easy in this one.
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Old 03-09-2018, 08:28 PM   #36
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I called that immediately, how do you bet this horse as a favorite in that spot --- 3 year old, early still in the season, with those odds? As may have been the case, they also might just be gearing him up.

Admittedly, I didn't have a horse I loved, so I stayed away. But I felt the toss the favorite angle was fairly easy in this one.
I use that angle every race
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Old 03-10-2018, 01:30 PM   #37
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If Good Magic wins the Derby, it will have to be in spite of his pedigree - not because of it.
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