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Old 03-03-2018, 06:28 PM   #16
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Looks like the Derby TRail bypasses Florida this year.

3yos continue to underwhelm me.
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Old 03-03-2018, 06:30 PM   #17
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Anyone else think heís overrated and a play against this weekend? I thought he tripped out in the Juvenile.
Well I was right. Didnít have winner though. So, it really does not matter. I really wish we had exchange wagering. Who took 3-5 on this horse?

Wouldnít have had winner. Romans off a layoff at GP with a terrible post. No way. Love seeing a Shakleford win. What a tough gritty horse he was.

I think Good Magic is not a very good horse. I saw him live on Champagne Day and I was not that impressed in paddock. I really do think he just tripped out in the BC. His defenders will say he was short, but Iím not buying that CB would have him short.
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Old 03-03-2018, 06:41 PM   #18
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Do the Ortiz brothers ever lose? Irad got the lead slowed it down to 112 .6 and that was it. Not a overwhelming bunch to say the least.
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Old 03-03-2018, 07:13 PM   #19
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Yawn. This is starting to feel like a Giacomo or Animal Kingdom type year. Chad Brown rarely has a horse cranked after a layoff but the performance of Good Magic was quite uninspiring. Almost a spitting image of Classic Empire winning the Juvenile then tanking the Holy Bull. Still a legit Derby contender but I'm scouting for something else. I suspect the San Felipe will have more talent.
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Old 03-03-2018, 07:14 PM   #20
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No one really knew.
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Old 03-03-2018, 07:17 PM   #21
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Tornado-I think this is a huge plus, not a yawn. The yawn is watching chalks run around all day during the derby. Wide open is good. It's been five years of favorites for the biggest price day of the year.
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Old 03-03-2018, 07:20 PM   #22
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Yawn. This is starting to feel like a Giacomo or Animal Kingdom type year. Chad Brown rarely has a horse cranked after a layoff but the performance of Good Magic was quite uninspiring. Almost a spitting image of Classic Empire winning the Juvenile then tanking the Holy Bull. Still a legit Derby contender but I'm scouting for something else. I suspect the San Felipe will have more talent.

I had this thought a few weeks back. The past handful of Derby winners have been among the favorites. We're due for a price. I probably won't play anything under 10-1 and might look more towards 20-1 shots and do a fairly cheap 'hope and pray' exacta.
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Old 03-03-2018, 07:30 PM   #23
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Tornado-I think this is a huge plus, not a yawn. The yawn is watching chalks run around all day during the derby. Wide open is good. It's been five years of favorites for the biggest price day of the year.
Yes, the chances of getting paid Derby day just went up but watching a theft in slow motion (6F in 1:12 3/5) is yawn inducing. We still have some chalk potential in the San Felipe next week where we should see Bolt plus one or two quality Baffert colts.
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Old 03-03-2018, 09:11 PM   #24
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a theft in slow motion (6F in 1:12 3/5)

Good Magic deservedly lost a lot of Derby futures' stock today, but he ran fine against the slow pace. He's a good horse, but he's not going to make his own trip, and he's not going to run a huge effort to overcome adversity. He could still be a top 3yo. Too early to tell.

The horse that surprised me today was the 9 Machismo. He closed as well as Marconi and he started his drive sooner. He will be one to watch for value.

Marconi ran fine as well.
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Old 03-03-2018, 11:00 PM   #25
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He looks like he didn't mature much from a 2 to 3 yr old, didn't grow much, still he looked fit and sound but did not impress physically as you would expect this close to the big dance....
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Old 03-03-2018, 11:00 PM   #26
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Orb (2013) is the only FOY starter to find roses since 1995. Good Magic did run fair, albeit uninspiring, and perhaps Chad Brown didn't have him fully cranked. The horse looked a bit green on the turn for home. Brown is the master at winning 3rd from the layoff which in GM's case could be the Kentucky Derby. I'm not dismissing him but that was a dismal slow race won by a Storm Cat (0-51 Derby) and placed by Strike Power, by Speightstown known for producing sprinters. Even the maiden claimers hit the 6F pole a tenth faster than these pokes. Perhaps this bodes well for the Florida Derby tote board since I don't expect any of these aside from perhaps GM to have enough to go 9F. My eyes are quickly turning to the California contingent. Over the past 25 years, with just a few exceptions, if the roses wearing horse didn't come out of the Florida Derby it came out of the Santa Anita Derby.
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Old 03-04-2018, 01:31 AM   #27
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Calendar has turned March and the single race obsession(KY-DBY) has begun. Always enjoy the Fruit Loops like emotional swings for the next 2 months! Have at it!
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Old 03-04-2018, 03:26 PM   #28
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Overrated?

The pace was slow after the first quarter, but Good Magic couldn't find an extra gear and finished a badly beaten third. He's going to have to prove that the Breeders' Cup was no fluke; he didn't do that yesterday.

I hope Bolt d'Oro comes through in his race; otherwise, I'll agree it's a Giacomo kind of year.
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Old 03-05-2018, 09:02 PM   #29
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A slow pace can make a lot of horses look bad.

I agree with Robert's assessment that Good Magic, Machismo and Marconi all ran well enough considering the circumstances.
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Old 03-06-2018, 06:36 PM   #30
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Probably biased and stuck on this horse because he was my daymaker for BC, love his looks and love some Jose Ortiz but anyway..I feel like Good Magic is right on schedule. Could get in the gate at Churchill just by hitting the board if I'm not mistaken? I think Chad made sure he wasn't asked a lot this past weekend.

probably just biased.
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