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Old 02-24-2018, 12:37 AM   #16
thaskalos
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Originally Posted by castaway01 View Post
Logic dictates that the "All" is usually a waste of money and "betting on chaos" rather than having an opinion. However, early in my horse racing career I had hit the first two legs of a Pick 3 at decent prices. In the last leg I had 10 of 12 horses. One of the two I didn't have won at 30-1, and the Pick 3 paid $3500 for $1. Considering my income at the time, it definitely made me think.

I think how I saved $12 that day by not going "All" and it cost me several thousand. So, while logic dictates not using All, for peace of mind sometimes you have to do it. Or I do anyway. And let's face it---if you're betting 8 or 9 or 10 of 12 horses, you don't really have an opinion other than that the favorites are trash, so why not go for the All?
Funny...the exact same thing happened to me. I had left only two horses out of the last leg of a Pick-4, and the ignored horses finished 1-2...triggering a monster payoff. I friend who looked at my racing form and saw the lines across only those two horses thought that I hit the huge exacta. But the experience reinforced my opinion to never use the all-button in the future. With my luck, I was sure that it was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity...and I missed it. Truth be told, I've used the all-button in a few horizontal bets over the years...hoping to relive that fateful day. Without fail...the favorite won every time.
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Old 02-24-2018, 01:29 PM   #17
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Today at Gulfstream Race #10:

Starts the pick 4, every horse has a good work and of the 4 horses that have started, the highest speed figure is at 12-1 and the 3rd and 4th are at 30-1.

Pick 4: All / / /
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Old 02-24-2018, 04:36 PM   #18
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Today at Gulfstream Race #10:

Starts the pick 4, every horse has a good work and of the 4 horses that have started, the highest speed figure is at 12-1 and the 3rd and 4th are at 30-1.

Pick 4: All / / /
If the Pick-3 in the 11-12-13 races is as straight-forward is you seem to think...wouldn't it make more sense to stick with that for a bigger bet-unit...and skip the chaotic 10th race?
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Old 02-24-2018, 05:25 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
If the Pick-3 in the 11-12-13 races is as straight-forward is you seem to think...wouldn't it make more sense to stick with that for a bigger bet-unit...and skip the chaotic 10th race?
It would but I am afraid the payout is going to be on the low side, and the pick 3 pool will be a lot smaller than the pick 4 pool. So playing a $12.00 pick 4, should pay better. Of course thats if it wins.
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Old 02-25-2018, 12:15 PM   #20
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I'm usually can find the winner when I hit the all button
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Old 02-25-2018, 12:53 PM   #21
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I'm usually can find the winner when I hit the all button
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Old 02-25-2018, 06:34 PM   #22
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Mark Cramer said it best....Chaos race
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Old 02-25-2018, 07:04 PM   #23
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a butterfly flaps it's wings in Cleveland and a longshot wins the Gulfstream finale..

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Originally Posted by fiveouttasix View Post
Mark Cramer said it best....Chaos race
whether you use 'ALL' vs. whether you use 'MOST', isn't as big an issue as determining that a race is a chaos race vs. a formful precision race.


some other chaotic/random points

ALL/MOST often trades some extra hit% (an increased chance of hitting this race today) vs. some value (ROI over a long term).

ALL/MOST comes into play in both horizontal multi-race wagers and vertical trifectas and superfectas... Sometimes such a decision comes more naturally for say the fourth slot in a superfecta, than it does for a multi-race sequence that happens to have a true chaos race. It's clear and obvious that almost any horse can hit the bottom of a superfecta, while a chaos race is not always obvious.
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Old 02-25-2018, 09:47 PM   #24
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1st- 9 horse field
2nd- 5 horse field
3rd- 5 horse field
4th- 9 horse field ($20K MCl)
5th- 9 horse field

If I can toss the favs in races 1-3 and I can nail the 1st down to 3 horses or less, single one of the 5 horse fields with confidence and narrow the other to 2, the 4th has a Pegram/Baffert, that without even looking at the form very well may be a free space at these conditions, I may play a P5 using all in the 5th. I handicap the conditions of the 1st 4 races on a regular basis and very seldom even peek at what is carded for the 5th. Have to be able to toss favs in the first 3 anyway, and singling one of either the 1st or 4th (assuming the 4th may be a freebie), I might consider it.

Max of $54 for a buck. Would go over $54 @ $1 if Baffert is hyped and can be tossed. I would consider going 2X3 in the 1st and 4th and 1X2 in the 5 horse fields to * in the 5th if I know Baffert will be odds-on and can be tossed. That would be $108 @ $1.

Not often I play these elongated horizontals just because I seldom see 4 races clumped together like these first 4 Friday. Would never make a bet like this if I had to use * twice or had to 'cap a race out of my comfort zone.
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Old 02-26-2018, 10:20 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01 View Post
Logic dictates that the "All" is usually a waste of money and "betting on chaos" rather than having an opinion. However, early in my horse racing career I had hit the first two legs of a Pick 3 at decent prices. In the last leg I had 10 of 12 horses. One of the two I didn't have won at 30-1, and the Pick 3 paid $3500 for $1. Considering my income at the time, it definitely made me think.

I think how I saved $12 that day by not going "All" and it cost me several thousand. So, while logic dictates not using All, for peace of mind sometimes you have to do it. Or I do anyway. And let's face it---if you're betting 8 or 9 or 10 of 12 horses, you don't really have an opinion other than that the favorites are trash, so why not go for the All?

This is exactly what my partner picsix and I debate and talk about often.

Typically if we both handicap a race, lets say a 10 horse chaos race, he thinks there are 3 possible winners, I add another 2 or 3 possible winners in that leg.... What happens, one of the 4 or 5 we didn't have win at a big number.
We were correct in identifying it to be a race with a bad group of favorites, but unable to come up with the correct price horse, usually because if it looked good it wouldn't be a big price.
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Old 02-26-2018, 10:27 AM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Si2see View Post
This is exactly what my partner picsix and I debate and talk about often.

Typically if we both handicap a race, lets say a 10 horse chaos race, he thinks there are 3 possible winners, I add another 2 or 3 possible winners in that leg.... What happens, one of the 4 or 5 we didn't have win at a big number.
We were correct in identifying it to be a race with a bad group of favorites, but unable to come up with the correct price horse, usually because if it looked good it wouldn't be a big price.
And points out 1 common thing in this thread.

Chaos = illogical

and therefore logical handicapping factors do not work well in illogical races. And puts the player in a situation that requires either risking more on the bet or passing.
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Old 02-26-2018, 10:32 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Funny...the exact same thing happened to me. I had left only two horses out of the last leg of a Pick-4, and the ignored horses finished 1-2...triggering a monster payoff. I friend who looked at my racing form and saw the lines across only those two horses thought that I hit the huge exacta. But the experience reinforced my opinion to never use the all-button in the future. With my luck, I was sure that it was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity...and I missed it. Truth be told, I've used the all-button in a few horizontal bets over the years...hoping to relive that fateful day. Without fail...the favorite won every time.

Thask,

I am in the same boat of having all in the last leg for a possible huge score, and the favorite wins more often than not. A few times I have hit the longer price.

However on the flip side of the coin, Several times I have made it to the last leg for a MONSTER payout, not having the favorite, and of course the favorite pops me for several thousand.

There are two exact scenarios I can recall.

We did a few 3 way split pick4's in vegas at a contest, hit the first 3 legs lowest price 6-1 highest 21-1 on a $40.50 play.

Last leg we were three deep second choice 9k, third 10-1 18k, 23-1 28k, all payoffs for 50 cent. Of course the favorite wins and pays $4800 and we didn't have it.

Another time when Royal delta's first breeders cup win. I ran second and third in the last leg of the pick4.

Basically what I am getting at is often times without all in the last leg ( I rarely use it in other legs of the ticket ), I am not good enough to seal the deal, as we all know it is tough to hit 4 winners in a row, especially 4 straight price horses.
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Old 02-26-2018, 02:05 PM   #28
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I think there should be some clarity made between the type of bets, Pick 3’s and Pick 6’s are widely different bets and payouts, the all button for a Pick 3 would make much less sense since the payouts even with some bomb are likely going to be depressed with other players doing the same thing. The pick 6 though seems like the chance to scoop the whole pool might make some sense.

The other thing here is the arguments for include the idea that you hit some random bomb, when actually that bomb is winning 2% to maybe 4% of the time, and it has to happen when you have played your all ticket for that particular race. That seems so random to me. For example, I play the pick 6, of those six races (1/6) I played a horse who has a 2/100 chance of winning. About 300/1 chance of happening.

I would also like to run the numbers on the increase in ticket costs, compared to how much it comes in, to the payoff. All tix can become a bit pricey in the pick 5 or 6.
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Old 02-26-2018, 05:39 PM   #29
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the only time i have ever saw it worthwhile is when the pool at Palm Beach Jai Alai was over $500,000 before the actual day that it was hit. Jai Alai is impossible to handicap and just as hard to fix. 20 guys kicked in over $25,000 each and bought it out, the final pool was over $900,000. if one other person hit it with them by chance they would have lost. this was a pick 6 pool.
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Old 02-26-2018, 09:52 PM   #30
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the day I start trying to grind out 5-2 winners will be the day I quit gambling.
Quote of the year.
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