Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 02-19-2018, 08:30 PM   #16
cutchemist42
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 867
Rep Power: 5 cutchemist42 is on a distinguished road
So in terms of pace, does a "Presser" need the leads to soften up?

When you look at Bris ratings for Pressers, do Quirin points even apply to them? I understand Quirin points to measure a desire or will to be placed where they want. Should a Presser even have Quirin points?
cutchemist42 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-19-2018, 08:58 PM   #17
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 6,585
Rep Power: 21 jay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of light
Yes, the presser needs speed points, otherwise he is not pressing the pace, he is chasing the pace.
jay68802 is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-20-2018, 03:07 PM   #18
hracingplyr
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 297
Rep Power: 18 hracingplyr is on a distinguished road
Presser

Good stuff Tom. My question is if your using Timeform would the presser be a midpack horse or tracker?

Bob
hracingplyr is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-20-2018, 03:10 PM   #19
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 41,059
Rep Power: 64 cj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to all
Quote:
Originally Posted by hracingplyr View Post
Good stuff Tom. My question is if your using Timeform would the presser be a midpack horse or tracker?

Bob
I think I can answer that one...tracker IMO. That was the intent of the label.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-20-2018, 03:18 PM   #20
Tom
Registered User
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 84,761
Rep Power: 109 Tom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to behold
Yes, that is how I handle the trackers.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-20-2018, 03:30 PM   #21
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 13,730
Rep Power: 28 classhandicapper will become famous soon enoughclasshandicapper will become famous soon enough
I mostly look at running styles.

IMO, horses only run as fast as they have to in order to secure the desired running position (horses and riders). So you can't necessarily tell how fast a "need the lead", "front runner", "near front runner" etc.. is capable of running based on how fast it ran early in recent races. Their prior fractions would depend on the kind of fields they drew into.

Once I know how the horse typically likes to run (including being versatile) it's only then that I try to determine if one of them can dominate some of the others on the lead or a couple are clearly inferior to a couple of others.

I will look at pace figures, but I tend to look at the quality and consistency of the horses each has been battling with or outrunning in other races. If one is clearly superior in quality, I'd expect it to either outrun or put away the cheaper ones and continue on (assuming form is constant). I'd expect the cheaper ones to fold (often badly) and finish worse than they would in a more neutrally run race.

When they are of similar quality, they tend to all run up close and it's kind of random as to which gets the lead (post position, start, rider aggressiveness etc..). In those races they will all mostly continue on unless the riders get overly aggressive.

There are also examples of horses that do their best running up close, but they draw into a race with so many front running and close up types that some of them wind up mid pack or worse (in slower fractions than they normally run). Those horses typically do not fire their best race. The exceptions are lightly raced horses that haven't really established what they are capable of doing.

We've all seen the speed horse that gets left to last and rallies to win, but we've also all seen the speed horse that gets left, is rushed up or outrun, and drops dead more often.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper; 02-20-2018 at 03:38 PM.
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-20-2018, 03:39 PM   #22
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 41,059
Rep Power: 64 cj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to all
I like to look at running styles, but I've learned that most horses are more versatile than any labels we give them. Horses I identify as "Leader" or "Plodder" are pretty set provided they've run several times. The others can vary in reality, usually by one label in either direction.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-20-2018, 03:46 PM   #23
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 13,730
Rep Power: 28 classhandicapper will become famous soon enoughclasshandicapper will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
I like to look at running styles, but I've learned that most horses are more versatile than any labels we give them. Horses I identify as "Leader" or "Plodder" are pretty set provided they've run several times. The others can vary in reality, usually by one label in either direction.
I agree.

I try to look for extremes in the race setup before I project too much. I also like for what I am projecting to be consistent with the profile for that track, surface, and distance.

What good is getting the setup right if the track/surface/distance is playing the opposite way?
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-20-2018, 04:02 PM   #24
Tom
Registered User
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 84,761
Rep Power: 109 Tom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to behold
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
I like to look at running styles, but I've learned that most horses are more versatile than any labels we give them. Horses I identify as "Leader" or "Plodder" are pretty set provided they've run several times. The others can vary in reality, usually by one label in either direction.
Sartin's Energy program showed horses rating ranked Early, Early presser, pressers, sustained presser, sustained and late.
The program had a prediction of what would win the race, ie, Presser figures to win.

The idea was to look at horses within 1 of the prediction, so Presser would include EP,P,SP horses in your preferences.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-20-2018, 04:13 PM   #25
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 13,730
Rep Power: 28 classhandicapper will become famous soon enoughclasshandicapper will become famous soon enough
"Within 1" is probably a pretty good way of looking at it.

It gives you some margin of safety in case your analysis and label based on the past is wrong and also gives you some margin of safety if your analysis of the past is right but the horse is simply more versatile than it has shown to date.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-20-2018, 04:30 PM   #26
Tom
Registered User
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 84,761
Rep Power: 109 Tom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to behold
Sartin was ahead of the game - he was dealing with "about" back in the 90s!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
How many U.S. tracks will be running full (8+ week) meetings in 2028?
0: We'll all be nuked by then - 5.66%
3 Votes
1-5 - 9.43%
5 Votes
6-10 - 18.87%
10 Votes
11-15 - 18.87%
10 Votes
16-20 - 9.43%
5 Votes
21 or more - 37.74%
20 Votes
Total Votes: 53
Non-members may not vote on this poll.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:29 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.