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Old 02-18-2018, 08:37 PM   #1
cutchemist42
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How do you handicap Pressers?

Just kinda wondering how you approach handicapping presser horses? Do you find pace figures (EP and LP from Bris, Timeform, etc) and speed ratings are important? What kind of pace scenario do you look for them? Visually for trip handicapping, what do you like to see?
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Old 02-18-2018, 09:04 PM   #2
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IMO...there is no real "substance" to these different running-style designations that today's neo-pace handicappers have invented. All these labels do is lend more confusion to a topic that is confused enough already. There supposedly are "pressers", who are within a length or two of the early pace...and then there are "stalkers", who are three or four lengths off the lead in the race's early going. In reality...there is no real difference between these two types of animals; their apparent "difference" is strictly a function of pace. If the early pace is faster, then the "presser" will become a "stalker". And if the pace is slower...then the "stalker" will assume the "presser's" role.

Why look for different handicapping techniques when there is no real difference between the horses in question?
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Old 02-18-2018, 09:44 PM   #3
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I can basic it. Presser style with high pace figs do damage. Especially with younger horses.
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Old 02-19-2018, 10:58 AM   #4
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Using BRIS, I have a "Presser Rating" I use - a combination of 2nd call and second fraction.

The logic is that is that it takes into account the turn time move associate with a presser and penalizes the turn time back up of cheap speed.

E1 = 85
E2 = 91

TT = +6, so Presser rating is 97

E1 = 92
E2 = 97

TT = -5, so PR = 92

When I use time, I just average the TT and 2nc Call ( ie, TFUS adjusted times, HTR velocity screen)

This rating came from Sartin's old program Contender Scan as Factor S. I found it to be one of the best ideas he ever had. I thing Mitchell used it also, as maybe ability time?

I agree somewhat with GUS, though - sometimes you see horse that defy being classified P, or EP or WTH? I just let the rating s decide for me.
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Old 02-19-2018, 12:04 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
Using BRIS, I have a "Presser Rating" I use - a combination of 2nd call and second fraction.

The logic is that is that it takes into account the turn time move associate with a presser and penalizes the turn time back up of cheap speed.

E1 = 85
E2 = 91

TT = +6, so Presser rating is 97

E1 = 92
E2 = 97

TT = -5, so PR = 92

When I use time, I just average the TT and 2nc Call ( ie, TFUS adjusted times, HTR velocity screen)

This rating came from Sartin's old program Contender Scan as Factor S. I found it to be one of the best ideas he ever had. I thing Mitchell used it also, as maybe ability time?

I agree somewhat with GUS, though - sometimes you see horse that defy being classified P, or EP or WTH? I just let the rating s decide for me.
Good stuff Tom. I was influenced by Dick Mitchell's Ability Time also. One thing I always did from way back is add the E1 and E2. Even on just fractions. It works amazingly well with maiden race or frontrunner matchups. When you have a 68.6 vs a 69.6 the decision making is easy. Anyway I still play with these ides all the time. LOve living in this universe!
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Old 02-19-2018, 12:07 PM   #6
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Got to say, i like Tom's method. One thing to say is you have to make sure that the running style designation is correct. A lot if times with older horses, you can use the Briss running styles and be safe. With younger horses though, check and make sure that they are correct. Gulfstream Race #2 today is a example. 6 horses are in and i would only trust the running style of 1 of then. The 5 is the only one labeled correctly. The other, your guess is as good as mine. This race is like Thaskalos says, They are just adding noise.
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Old 02-19-2018, 12:40 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer View Post
Good stuff Tom. I was influenced by Dick Mitchell's Ability Time also. One thing I always did from way back is add the E1 and E2. Even on just fractions. It works amazingly well with maiden race or frontrunner matchups. When you have a 68.6 vs a 69.6 the decision making is easy. Anyway I still play with these ides all the time. LOve living in this universe!
I used to add E1+E2 and E2+Lp and have an early and a late rating for each horse. Then I would model which rating were winning and play to that.
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Old 02-19-2018, 01:08 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Tom View Post
I used to add E1+E2 and E2+Lp and have an early and a late rating for each horse. Then I would model which rating were winning and play to that.
2nd call plus 2nd half. Opened my eyes during the Beulah days I was killing it around 2001! We are definitely kin!
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Old 02-19-2018, 05:40 PM   #9
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While I like the concept of turn time its never led me anywhere. I think this is because the relationship of overall race shape and turn time never factored into my play.

I have been messing around with a "genaric" system using the color coding from Timeform and turn time.

I never use horse running style designations, I dont see how that changes an evaluation of their turn time performance, though I recognize this thread was started about Pressers.
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Old 02-19-2018, 06:15 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
Using BRIS, I have a "Presser Rating" I use - a combination of 2nd call and second fraction.

The logic is that is that it takes into account the turn time move associate with a presser and penalizes the turn time back up of cheap speed.

E1 = 85
E2 = 91

TT = +6, so Presser rating is 97

E1 = 92
E2 = 97

TT = -5, so PR = 92

When I use time, I just average the TT and 2nc Call ( ie, TFUS adjusted times, HTR velocity screen)

This rating came from Sartin's old program Contender Scan as Factor S. I found it to be one of the best ideas he ever had. I thing Mitchell used it also, as maybe ability time?

I agree somewhat with GUS, though - sometimes you see horse that defy being classified P, or EP or WTH? I just let the rating s decide for me.
Tom, help me to understand your figs. in the first example, E2-E1 = 91-85= +6 TT. and then it gets added to E2 , or 91+6TT for a 97 rating.

Then in 2nd example, E1-E2= 92-97 = -5 TT? then E2 + (-5) TT or 92 presser rating. I'm missing something. Why isn't the 2nd example a +5 TT like the first example?
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Old 02-19-2018, 06:20 PM   #11
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Tom, help me to understand your figs. in the first example, E2-E1 = 91-85= +6 TT. and then it gets added to E2 , or 91+6TT for a 97 rating.

Then in 2nd example, E1-E2= 92-97 = -5 TT? then E2 + (-5) TT or 92 presser rating. I'm missing something. Why isn't the 2nd example a +5 TT like the first example?
I think he reversed the numbers in example 2, forgot to mention that earlier when I saw the post.
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Old 02-19-2018, 06:23 PM   #12
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I think he reversed the numbers in example 2, forgot to mention that earlier when I saw the post.
Yes - they were two different examples.
Sorry if I made that confusing.
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Old 02-19-2018, 06:59 PM   #13
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The big thing is getting to the point where you think about the relationships of these numbers. It has led to some of my greatest handicapping discoveries.
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Old 02-19-2018, 08:26 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
Using BRIS, I have a "Presser Rating" I use - a combination of 2nd call and second fraction.

The logic is that is that it takes into account the turn time move associate with a presser and penalizes the turn time back up of cheap speed.

E1 = 85
E2 = 91

TT = +6, so Presser rating is 97

E1 = 92
E2 = 97

TT = -5, so PR = 92

When I use time, I just average the TT and 2nc Call ( ie, TFUS adjusted times, HTR velocity screen)

This rating came from Sartin's old program Contender Scan as Factor S. I found it to be one of the best ideas he ever had. I thing Mitchell used it also, as maybe ability time?

I agree somewhat with GUS, though - sometimes you see horse that defy being classified P, or EP or WTH? I just let the rating s decide for me.
Not sure I followed your example right. Why doesnt the 2nd example have a PR of 97+5=102?

EDIT-Nevermind, I replied before reading an answer before this post.

Last edited by cutchemist42; 02-19-2018 at 08:28 PM.
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Old 02-19-2018, 08:28 PM   #15
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Not sure I followed your example right. Why doesnt the 2nd example have a PR of 97+5=102?
You are right - I reversed the E1 and E2 - should be 97-92 for a -5 TT

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