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Old 02-14-2018, 12:04 AM   #1
JJMartin
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Post Position Bias

Horse preference for post position?
Do individual horses do better in certain posts or is it just illusion?
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Old 02-14-2018, 11:16 AM   #2
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They probably do, just like jockeys.

However, the data will be so sparse, it will be about impossible to verify it without real physical observation.
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Old 02-14-2018, 12:34 PM   #3
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Had a horse here in Nebraska that was named Doug. The horse need two things, the lead and had to run on the rail. I think he ended up winning 6 races, 4 of those wins came from the 1 hole. There was another filly that did not need the lead, but hated having dirt sprayed in her face. All of her wins came from the 4 hole out.
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Old 02-14-2018, 02:18 PM   #4
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One of Nick Mordin's books mentions this, and they are all well worth a read. If memory serves light horses, for example, tended to prefer to be drawn outside and run in the clear. Of course they aren't all alike, but watching races closely can give some clues.

That said, I think there is real value in knowing the post position tendencies for each track, surface, and distance combination. You just have to know how to measure it.

Last edited by cj; 02-14-2018 at 02:19 PM.
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Old 02-14-2018, 03:55 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JJMartin View Post
Horse preference for post position?
Do individual horses do better in certain posts or is it just illusion?

It is not an illusion. But I don't think that an exact post position is as much the key as it is the setup of the race.
Many ( not all) speed horses hate their right eye covered up by another horse. You will notice riders that are on that type will move accordingly to keep that eye clean of another horse, even if the move is premature. They know they are dead if that happens.
Others, as mentioned, do not like the spray of dirt. Those types will always try and get out of the spray to make a run.
Those are the two most common problems with being inside.
Horses that have these tendencies can make a jockey look bad to the public as they assume the rider either moved too early or lost too much ground getting out of behind the wall of dirt.
Often times, what looked like a bad ride in customers eyes was simply trying to accommodate that horses needs.
Not always of course as sometimes the customer is right and it was a poor ride. But not quite as often in these two instances and it might seem.

CJ is right about knowing post positions at certain distances at certain tracks. Key info to have IMO.
Hope that helps.
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Old 02-14-2018, 04:06 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Ruffian1 View Post
It is not an illusion. But I don't think that an exact post position is as much the key as it is the setup of the race.
Many ( not all) speed horses hate their right eye covered up by another horse. You will notice riders that are on that type will move accordingly to keep that eye clean of another horse, even if the move is premature. They know they are dead if that happens.
Others, as mentioned, do not like the spray of dirt. Those types will always try and get out of the spray to make a run.
Those are the two most common problems with being inside.
Horses that have these tendencies can make a jockey look bad to the public as they assume the rider either moved too early or lost too much ground getting out of behind the wall of dirt.
Often times, what looked like a bad ride in customers eyes was simply trying to accommodate that horses needs.
Not always of course as sometimes the customer is right and it was a poor ride. But not quite as often in these two instances and it might seem.

CJ is right about knowing post positions at certain distances at certain tracks. Key info to have IMO.
Hope that helps.
Interesting. I never thought about the reasoning but I've always hated when a horse I bet is battling inside and the horse outside is a little in front. I'd go so far as to say most horses don't like it based on results.
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Old 02-14-2018, 04:18 PM   #7
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Interesting. I never thought about the reasoning but I've always hated when a horse I bet is battling inside and the horse outside is a little in front. I'd go so far as to say most horses don't like it based on results.
Some speeds can be OK with that but the majority of speeds need a clean right eye or they will give up prematurely.

I always found it weird that those speed types would quit down the backside or into the turn if pinned but once they turn for home, plenty of speeds, but not all, will dig in and continue to try.

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Old 02-14-2018, 05:27 PM   #8
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Good to know. That is always a trip i mark down as hidden bad trip that most bettors overlook.
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Old 02-14-2018, 06:19 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Ruffian1 View Post
Some speeds can be OK with that but the majority of speeds need a clean right eye or they will give up prematurely.

I always found it weird that those speed types would quit down the backside or into the turn if pinned but once they turn for home, plenty of speeds, but not all, will dig in and continue to try.

Good information in this thread.

You know I never realized about the right eye, but one of my handicapping partners always likes it if when a speed horse begins to be collared, the rider lets them out another notch to stay clear.


Also below is something he has taught me about speed horses ( which is actually the number 1 issue with my game in the past finding and using speed horses, knowing which to play, and something he has helped me tremendously, along with my other partner Picsix )......

There are certain riders who are great at riding the final turn, and putting separation on the field entering the stretch, and there are some who will constantly let a speed horse get swallowed up. This is something you should try to learn at whatever circuits you are playing.

Jason
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Old 02-14-2018, 08:51 PM   #10
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[QUOTE=Si2see;2276527]Good information in this thread.


"there are certain riders who are great at riding the final turn, and putting separation on the field entering the stretch,"


" Jason a great example of this currently is Saez down at Gulfstream. He has been outstanding on the recent speed favoring main track.

Last edited by jahura2; 02-14-2018 at 08:56 PM.
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Old 02-14-2018, 08:55 PM   #11
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One of Nick Mordin's books mentions this, and they are all well worth a read. If memory serves light horses, for example, tended to prefer to be drawn outside and run in the clear. Of course they aren't all alike, but watching races closely can give some clues.

That said, I think there is real value in knowing the post position tendencies for each track, surface, and distance combination. You just have to know how to measure it.
any clues?
personally i think who is riding it is important as far as gate goes.
some from wide just drop back regardless of likely pace, even so called good riders.
other think it out better.
but i reckon it is very hard to add to your bottom line significantly with barrier factors
it is obviously important but so hard to enumerate, for me anyway.
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Old 02-14-2018, 09:03 PM   #12
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I completely believe in post position bias but individual horse position bias, thats a tough one to chart unless you just have a lot of time to keep records.

I do always scan the pp's to see how horses like to run, I believe some horses hate being inside and others are fine with it.
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Old 02-14-2018, 09:55 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by jahura2
Jason a great example of this currently is Saez down at Gulfstream. He has been outstanding on the recent speed favoring main track.
Right he has been hot this meet on speed. I admittedly donít pay enough attention to riders. Donít get me wrong I have several that I prefer, and even more that I donít care for, but I lean more towards handicapping the animals and am more of a situational bettor than anything.

And because this thread was started about post position I will offer my two cents on Gulfstream. Maybe itís just the way I handicap races or the races I tend to play are benefitted by these situations, but I STRONGLY prefer horses that get an inside post and I think the 2 hole is probably my favorite post on any distance and any surface at Gulfstream. I have hit several horses over the past two Chanpions meets, and two horses were HUGE numbers
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Old 02-14-2018, 10:57 PM   #14
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CJ is right about knowing post positions at certain distances at certain tracks. Key info to have IMO.
A prime example of this is that in a short sprint that starts relatively close to the turn, slow breakers in inside post positions can get shuffled to the back of the pack real fast.
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Old 02-15-2018, 10:18 AM   #15
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Extended sprint races where a chute is used are races that the head-on replays will help you decipher some of the PP stats. I would suggest watching how the good jocks ride in relation to where the gap in the rail is and how they move towards the rail.
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