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Old 02-26-2018, 10:05 AM   #46
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Since I just started doing this, going to keep things as they are for now. It's possible to add some longer term stuff, and I'll definitely consider it...but not right now.

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Old 02-26-2018, 03:09 PM   #47
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With one pick left (a 2/5 M/L shot no less), here is how today turned out...hardly any plays, but a profit nonetheless:

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Old 02-26-2018, 07:02 PM   #48
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Last pick won...these chalks are getting way out of hand...

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Old 02-27-2018, 05:53 PM   #49
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Here's how today panned out...small profit...but a profit nonetheless



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Old 02-27-2018, 09:06 PM   #50
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Here's how today panned out...small profit...but a profit nonetheless



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Rebate players kill for days like this.
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Old 03-02-2018, 04:02 PM   #51
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Been wondering how I've been doing lately? Having another great day so far...here's my current record with picks posted in the VIP section.

Have hit 6 of 11 on top so far today.

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Old 03-02-2018, 04:51 PM   #52
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Hit two out of the next three while we were gone...so I have now hit 8 out of 14 top pick winners today...damn...I'm good



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Old 03-02-2018, 09:23 PM   #53
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Here are the results of today and my current totals. Petered out a bit at the end, but all in all, a pretty solid day.

Hit 13 of 28 top choice winners. Not too shabby...



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Old 03-02-2018, 09:46 PM   #54
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Whats your software of choice here?

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Old 03-02-2018, 10:35 PM   #55
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I think PA has said that he uses TimeForm numbers. I also think that he uses the pace projector and then does some weighting using a Monte Carlo simulation. He may not do this any more, but I believe that is what he has done in the past.

PA, you definitely have got it GOING ON. Handicapping and playing like a BOSS.
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Old 03-02-2018, 10:36 PM   #56
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I exclusively use TimeformUS pace & speed figures...and use Excel to generate an odds line using the figures.

So I guess Excel is my software of choice?

I use a web scraping tool to generate a .csv file of the figures I need from the Timeform website for each race, so the process of inputting the figs is semi-automated...but not quite. But I can handicap a race in under a minute using my method.

I don't do trips. I don't look at jockeys, trainers or owners.

Pure figs. And my 158 race sample doesn't even consider overlays. It's just the performance of the top pick bet in each and every race.

The new 9/5 or higher sample is based on betting each pick at 9/5 or higher at 0mtp. As you can see, some of the winners got cut down drastically from 0mtp until the race went off, as is the plague of betting on horses these days.

But yet, I have overcome this handicap...to date...which shows you that you can WIN and WIN NICELY despite late odds drops, while using NOTHING BUT PACE AND SPEED FIGURES.

And they say it can't be done.

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Old 03-02-2018, 10:57 PM   #57
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Nice going PA...

using your years of experiences and putting down to use in Excel is a rewarding experience....



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Old 03-02-2018, 11:29 PM   #58
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Well done, sir. Congrats.
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Old 03-02-2018, 11:51 PM   #59
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Outstanding !!!

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Old 03-02-2018, 11:53 PM   #60
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Outstanding !!!
Good stuff Zaf! Love the graphical accompaniment!

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