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Old 02-03-2018, 12:37 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
Never heard this kind of logic before.

Do you bet to win on the lowest WPS take of any major jurisdiction? Do you do it more than three times per day? Do you do it in non consecutive races?

Then the parlay is a great option.
I personally think it is bad for the vast majority of horseplayers. They'll just lose more money and do it faster.
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Old 02-03-2018, 01:08 AM   #32
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PS In case anyone is confused, a manual parlay is edgeless, whereas a p-something suffers only one takeout , and will on average pay much more than a parlay.

In addition, when you're talking p5 or p6, and longshots, a manual parlay would be crushing the payoff by the time you got to the final leg(s). No such problem in the pick bet.
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Old 02-03-2018, 12:54 PM   #33
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Now I want to look at a day where a seaoned player has 4 key bets. 2 in the early pick 4 and 2 in the late pick 4. Instead of parlaying and playing a round robin with his key bets he chooses to do a single, single, all, all on both pick 4's. So let's assumed our seasoned player is about break even on key bets(which is reasonable-some are +5% others -5 to 10%).
So he elects to play the first pick 4 where his exprected return is
1.0 after the first key bet
1.0 after the 2nd key bet
.80 after the 1st all race
.64 after the 2nd all race

So after the 4 all races his return is .64.. Add about 50% to that because of one takeout instead of 4 takeouts and we are back to 96% of even.

Now let's say the player just parlays and round robins his 4 key bets. Since they are all about break even long term (because our seasoned player has evolved to the point that he breaks about even on prime bets). His return on each and every parlay is about 100%(break even).


So if you look at the 2 independently there is not a huge advantage to one over to the other. In a perfect world we would be able to have a pick 4 in races 1-2-8-9. But we certainly do not live in that perfect world today. Also I would venture a guess that very few players out there are (myself included) disciplined enough to focus their multi pick wagers to "key bet singles etc" or even positive expectation singles. For most of us it is I need a single to make this play, looks like this is the best one.

I believe parlay/round robin betting can be a a tool for all horseplayers to focus their betting on their strongest plays and possibly improve their long term roi. The parlay/round robin feature gives them the chance of a score, without having to rely so much on luck (8 deep in the last leg of the pick 4 and hoping the 8/5 favorite doesn't waltz home or worse yet only being live to the 8/5 favorite and watching your 2nd choice win).

Parlays just compound expectation. Have 2 horse with a 50% chance of winning and paying 3/2. Expected return on each is 25%. Parlay the 2 and you have a 25% chance of hitting but your return on a $2 parlay is $12.50, so your expected return is 25%*12.50 or $3.125 on a $2 bet or a 56.25% expectation. Of course the bad news is that you have to bet less since you went from a 50% winning expectation to a 25% winning expectation. You are also increasing your losing streaks significantly which can work against some players.

By the same token compounding expectation of parlays can work against the player who may think he has positive expectation but in reality he doesn't (eg the 2 horse he rates as having a 50% chance of winning only have a 35% chance of winning).

You have no argument from me that pick 4 and pick 5 betting is the best bet in this game, but even with 50 cent minimums they do not cater to the
undercapitalized or inexperienced bettor. Especially when you are dealing with really competitive racing.

Parlays/round robins is a good way to get inexperienced or even some very experienced bettors to focus on their stronger plays and likely fills enough of their action quota so they aren't making as many questionable plays. CJ sees negative, I see positive(for horseplayers in general not myself (seems like I alwasy have to clarify that). Since the ability to parlay is already there, you may as well make it convenient for those who would like to use this feature. For the rest of you what is the difference if they offer it or not.
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Old 02-03-2018, 01:16 PM   #34
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Great post P
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Old 02-03-2018, 01:21 PM   #35
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None of that changes the fact you are paying over 40% takeout in the example I gave on the parlay. If bettors want to bet against that, go for it, but there is nothing wrong with shedding a little light on the reality of the bet. It isn't all party balloons and confetti.
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Old 02-03-2018, 01:22 PM   #36
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None of that changes the fact you are paying over 40% takeout in the example I gave on the parlay. If bettors want to bet against that, go for it, but there is nothing wrong with shedding a little light on the reality of the bet. It isn't all party balloons and confetti.
It's two win bets not an exotic wager. If you ever bet to win on two or three horses per day it's the same thing.

I've been pushing to bring them back since they got rid of them in 2007. What I consider the best bet I ever made (not the most money won) was a two horse WP parlay.

Last edited by Andy Asaro; 02-03-2018 at 01:30 PM.
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Old 02-03-2018, 01:39 PM   #37
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Charts attached for parlay I spoke about in previous post. The were both first time geldings.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf February 2 2007 race 2.pdf (42.3 KB, 18 views)
File Type: pdf February 2 2007 race 5.pdf (16.0 KB, 8 views)
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Old 02-03-2018, 01:58 PM   #38
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What are the details on how takeout and breakage are applied?
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Old 02-03-2018, 02:05 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
It's two win bets not an exotic wager. If you ever bet to win on two or three horses per day it's the same thing.

I've been pushing to bring them back since they got rid of them in 2007. What I consider the best bet I ever made (not the most money won) was a two horse WP parlay.
It isn't two or thee win bets because in a parlay if you get one wrong you get nothing.
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Old 02-03-2018, 02:25 PM   #40
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None of that changes the fact you are paying over 40% takeout in the example I gave on the parlay. If bettors want to bet against that, go for it, but there is nothing wrong with shedding a little light on the reality of the bet. It isn't all party balloons and confetti.

Cj, I am going to jump out on a limb and assume you a winning player. That means to me that over time, when CJ has a prime bet, it will have a positive expectation. So the takeout this is a non issue, because you have the skill set to overcome the take. I am also going to guess that your prime bets come to the tune of one or 2 per track per day at most. So you rarely have the option of coupling them in a double or covering 2/3rds of a pick 3 with them.

I am going to go out on another limb and say that on the rest of the races (races you have no feel for or you see no value in) you are going to have an roi of over -10% maybe closer to -20%. You are good, but if the public has it right, there isn't much you can do to overcome the track takeout.

So you gave an example of a pick 3. Pick 3 takeout is 23.68%. The WPS takeout is 15.47%. So based off of your theory the pick 3 is superior because of the one takeout vs a takeout in each race. So if you parlayed $2.00 on negative 15.3% horse your expected return on a parlay is $120.96 for $2.00 while the return on a pick 3 $176.32(a 45% premium for connecting them in the pick 3) if you singled all 3 in a pick 3. That is all correct, but you can't look at it that way. However, you know over time that your prime bets are going to be at worst break even. Let's assume that by narrowing down the other 2 legs of the pick 3 you can get those 2 legs to -15% each (you are better than the crowd but if there is no value or you have a poor handle on the races your expertise will only get you so far). So you key one of your prime bets with spreads in 2 random races and your return will be 1*.85*.85*1.42 or 1.047 or about a 5% premium with he pick 3 over the breakeven prime bet parlay. Each player has to analyze his situation and see what would work better for him/her. So yes you do a little better with the pick 3 if you can reduce the track take some in the latter 2 legs but it is not a huge difference. That is the point I am trying to convey. Also I have not studied pick 3 payouts, but I would be highy shocked if pick 3 payouts with obvious horses offerred anywhere close to a 45% premium on a 3 horse parlay. I believe all the multi pick wager payouts are skewed much lower on the obvious. Just the way people play, singles, 2x3x4, 3x3x3 or 4x4x4 cold decking........

So in theory I get what you are saying, "why parlay 3 horses when there is a pick 3 that offers one takeout and 45% premium because of that" but in the reality of racing that decision is not nearly as obvious as you believe it is.

Last edited by Poindexter; 02-03-2018 at 02:26 PM.
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Old 02-03-2018, 02:35 PM   #41
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Cj, I am going to jump out on a limb and assume you a winning player. That means to me that over time, when CJ has a prime bet, it will have a positive expectation. So the takeout this is a non issue, because you have the skill set to overcome the take. I am also going to guess that your prime bets come to the tune of one or 2 per track per day at most. So you rarely have the option of coupling them in a double or covering 2/3rds of a pick 3 with them.

I am going to go out on another limb and say that on the rest of the races (races you have no feel for or you see no value in) you are going to have an roi of over -10% maybe closer to -20%. You are good, but if the public has it right, there isn't much you can do to overcome the track takeout.

So you gave an example of a pick 3. Pick 3 takeout is 23.68%. The WPS takeout is 15.47%. So based off of your theory the pick 3 is superior because of the one takeout vs a takeout in each race. So if you parlayed $2.00 on negative 15.3% horse your expected return on a parlay is $120.96 for $2.00 while the return on a pick 3 $176.32(a 45% premium for connecting them in the pick 3) if you singled all 3 in a pick 3. That is all correct, but you can't look at it that way. However, you know over time that your prime bets are going to be at worst break even. Let's assume that by narrowing down the other 2 legs of the pick 3 you can get those 2 legs to -15% each (you are better than the crowd but if there is no value or you have a poor handle on the races your expertise will only get you so far). So you key one of your prime bets with spreads in 2 random races and your return will be 1*.85*.85*1.42 or 1.047 or about a 5% premium with he pick 3 over the breakeven prime bet parlay. Each player has to analyze his situation and see what would work better for him/her. So yes you do a little better with the pick 3 if you can reduce the track take some in the latter 2 legs but it is not a huge difference. That is the point I am trying to convey. Also I have not studied pick 3 payouts, but I would be highy shocked if pick 3 payouts with obvious horses offerred anywhere close to a 45% premium on a 3 horse parlay. I believe all the multi pick wager payouts are skewed much lower on the obvious. Just the way people play, singles, 2x3x4, 3x3x3 or 4x4x4 cold decking........

So in theory I get what you are saying, "why parlay 3 horses when there is a pick 3 that offers one takeout and 45% premium because of that" but in the reality of racing that decision is not nearly as obvious as you believe it is.
I'm mostly a one race at a time guy. I play too many big prices to try to string them together. If I go 1 for 3, I want to get paid.

I do understand the appeal of a parlay. I though I mentioned that early on. I just also understand if that you are really cutting into your edge when you start linking bets together and letting the previous outcome ride. For example, lets say I love a 15-1 that wins and pays $32. To my mind, I'd be crazy to bet that all on the next 15-1 shot I love 5 races later.
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Old 02-03-2018, 02:38 PM   #42
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Parlays/round robins is a good way to get inexperienced or even some very experienced bettors to focus on their stronger plays and likely fills enough of their action quota so they aren't making as many questionable plays. CJ sees negative, I see positive(for horseplayers in general not myself (seems like I alwasy have to clarify that). Since the ability to parlay is already there, you may as well make it convenient for those who would like to use this feature. For the rest of you what is the difference if they offer it or not.
Excellent post Poindexter

At least SA is trying something, to get people to the windows and actually invest in the game.

If "someone" doesn't like the wager, then do not play it. Kudos to ANY track trying to create new fans.

So tired of hearing "takeout" regarding horse racing. If it's that bad, then stop playing, hop in the car and go play a slot machine! You'll be back at the track in no time.
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Old 02-03-2018, 02:47 PM   #43
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Excellent post Poindexter

At least SA is trying something, to get people to the windows and actually invest in the game.

If "someone" doesn't like the wager, then do not play it. Kudos to ANY track trying to create new fans.

So tired of hearing "takeout" regarding horse racing. If it's that bad, then stop playing, hop in the car and go play a slot machine! You'll be back at the track in no time.
The problem is tracks do all kinds of new bets that are worse and worse for bettors while failing to address the problem of the price of betting being too high. Putting lipstick on a pig still leaves you with a pig.
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Old 02-03-2018, 04:09 PM   #44
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Parlays/round robins is a good way to get inexperienced or even some very experienced bettors to focus on their stronger plays and likely fills enough of their action quota so they aren't making as many questionable plays.
OK, suppose a newbie bets a parlay and hit the first 2 legs, then loses.
Then he plays another and hits the first 2 legs and then loses.
He goes home 4 for 6 and has a pocket full of bumpkiss.


Think he'll come back?
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Old 02-03-2018, 04:58 PM   #45
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OK, suppose a newbie bets a parlay and hit the first 2 legs, then loses.
Then he plays another and hits the first 2 legs and then loses.
He goes home 4 for 6 and has a pocket full of bumpkiss.


Think he'll come back?
Not a good example, in a 6 horse round robin he will parlay
123, 124, 125, 126, 134, 135, 136, 145, 146, 156,234,235,236,245,246,256,345,346,356,456

I am acutally not a fan of the extra parlays as was pointed out that are done in GB until you are more seasoned in this game. With 20 $5 parlays, our newbie will hit 4 of them. Assuming all 6 horses are 2-1, each parlay pays $135, so for his $100 he gets back $540. I think our newbie will bring all his friends next time.

or he can do a series of 2 horse parlay 1-2, 1-3.....5-6 which is a total of 15 parlays at $5 each, outlay $75 hit 6(1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 2-3, 2-4, 3-4) of them for $45 each and make $195(270 back less the $75 investment).


The advantage of doing the 15 2 horse parlays is that if you win only 2 you invest $75 and get back $45(lose $30 on a $75 play) where as on the first play if you don't hit 3 winners you lose $100, so that is obviously a lot riskier.


All this information should be provided for patron in the program and on the web site etc, so people can play it intelligently and geared toward what appeals to them.
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