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Old 02-01-2018, 04:17 PM   #16
illinoisbred
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With the scratch of the #2 I'm now going to go with the #4-Green With Eddie. Will still worry about My Man Chuckles.
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Old 02-01-2018, 04:39 PM   #17
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As thread originator, I should do a solid recap of the race, but time has crunched down on me. So, here's my picks anyway.

Taima the Hawk. Weakest field of his life. Has ran some very nice races on this course. Love the way VanDyke handled him last time he rode him. Put him right on the engine his first stretch out against the softest field he'd faced to that time, and nearly pulled it off. Conditioning is always important on this course as the cutbacks win their fair share.

Ketos. SCRATCHED. Have to comment though. The turn of foot he showed as they straightened for home in his last at LosAl was very impressive, and the kind of move that wins downhill races all the time. He would have been my biggest fear.

Green With Eddie. Ran his last race like blinkers will be a big help, and with the scratch of the speed to his inside, may have, on the drop, control of proceedings well into the stretch.

Good Luck all. It was good seeing some thoughts.
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Old 02-01-2018, 05:46 PM   #18
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I like the Exotic Ghost.

Won on this course and distance three races back. Coming off a 6-month layoff but Puype is pretty good at that angle.

I'll key to the and in the exotics.
finished
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Old 02-01-2018, 06:58 PM   #19
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Illinoisbred seemed to have the best feel for the race.

It was a tough one. I was surprised how well the public really had it, other than the vulnerable favorite.
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Old 02-02-2018, 11:04 PM   #20
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A final post to this thread for me.

I watched the 8th today at SA, and noted how it was won. , not sure of the horse's name, and really not important to this post, won in what I would call, the perfect profile for down the hill. Pressured the pace until leveling off for the stretch, and then firing for home. This is why Ketos in the subject race concerned me so much. He had shown such an impressive turn of foot in the stretch in his previous race that I was concerned that he might skip away from the field at the 3/16ths pole and never be reeled back in. Being scratched made it mute, but up to that instance, he was a very dangerous horse in the race we used as an exercise.

Anytime I can identify a horse like that going down the hill, I demand 3/1, and if I get it, I put a "fair" bet on it, after all, 3/1 isn't going to make anybody's year at the window, no matter the size of the bet, and take what I can get and move on. If for some reason, 6/1 or higher is offered, I will get rather aggressive at the window. The way the won the 8th at SA today is the most predictive manner if there is a horse entered that fits the profile, and has displayed the relative distance of the race and competition of the field entered is within the horse's capabilities.

About 6 1/2 furlongs on the Santa Anita hillside turf. IMHO, one of the very best races run on a regular basis in US racing. It is a really cool race.
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