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Old 01-29-2018, 07:19 PM   #1
GMB@BP
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Derby Preps-TimeformUS figures

Timeform released their spreadsheet of the 18' Derby Preps. I wanted to track the Derby Preps and make commentary using their figures for all the prep races starting the first of the year. So some of this is rehash of previous races but will add each weekend. Feel free to rip my opinions, I dont take it personally.

Spreadsheet of all Derby Preps - https://timeformus.files.wordpress.c...8/01/derby.png

1/6/18 Sham Stakes, 8.5F, Santa Anita

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20180106&RN=5

Timeform Figures 1/4-108 1/2-108 3/4-113 Final Fig-122

Analysis - McKinzie: Its always tough to tell how good horses like McKinzie are off running lines like this. The pace was slow, almost crawling, he was kept wide both turns and inhaled the easy leaders whenever he wanted, drawing off to record a 122 (119 pace adjusted) final figure. I tend to view this in a more positive light, that an ultra talanted horse settled nicely and used his skill to run off and record a fine final time. Yes its not as impressive as stalking fast pace and running off like he did, but at least he did what he was supposed to. This is not the first fast race he has run, in fact all his races are fast. At this point this is just a serious horse for serious connections. He still has some growing up with the whole tail swishing, and if this is not a case of going sour and he figures it all out, look out.

All Out Blitz: with McKinzie taking back he became lone speed and set dawdling pace, held to run a very average second. I will be completely against this horse next out, and he likely brings value to any pool he is in off this dressed up running line.

My Boy Jack: was up close inside most of the trip, when they quickened he could not and just plugged away. I would consider him next in a return to turf.

Shivermetimbers: Very disappointing effort. Was his mdn fig a bit high? Does he want to stalk a bit more and try to finish? Either way there was no excuse to run this bad and the trouble was not relevant. He runs in the Lewis and if you think a different tactic will revert to his previous top figures he is playable but he had no excuse at all.

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Last edited by cj; 02-01-2018 at 11:47 AM.
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Old 01-29-2018, 07:21 PM   #2
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1/13/18 Jerome Stakes, 8.0F, Aqueduct

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20180113&RN=8

Timeform Figures 1/4-81 1/2-71 3/4-86 Final Fig-101 (Muddy)

Analysis - Firenze Fire: Any talk with this race has to be taken in context with the pace, that is about as slow as graded stake three year olds can go. Its very tough to use the figures from this race and make determinations about ability, at least in regards to the winner. His trip though, wide around the turn, chasing this crawlfest, yet rallied to win is exactly what you want to see if when looking at young horses. He had nothing his own way, and yes he was supposed to win, but a lose would have been understandable. Now we don't have a great feel of his real ability with fast paces and much better horses, but as a starting point this was a great debut for his 3yo year. Timeform adjusted figure is only 99 but with the pace that figure does not mean too much.

Seven Trumpets : What kind of trip can this horse get next out that one would want to bet him, because it will not be any easier than this. Have to be against this horse off this in just about any spot.

Coltandmississippi: was never too far off it but when the real running started he lost position and fell way behind before rallying. I am not sure there isn't still some improvement for this horse around two turns and maybe in a fall apart scenario is a bit usable next time. Does not seem like a real viable contender for the Derby but should be looked at closely next out as he may improve.



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Last edited by cj; 02-01-2018 at 11:49 AM.
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Old 01-29-2018, 07:40 PM   #3
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1/13/18 LeComte Stakes, 8.5F, Fairgrounds

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20180113&RN=9

Timeform Figures 1/4-133 1/2-129 3/4-115 Final Fig-119

Analysis - Instilled Regard: Colt has always been very highly thought of from the Hollendorfer barn and since stretching out to two turns has not been a dissappointment. Over a million dollar purchase with Phipps family breeding in his pedigree he is supposed to be good at what he is doing. He was very unlucky to lose the Los Al Futurity against two top class foes and showed how strong that race was (McKinzie also won out of it). This race sports a very solid pace of 129-115 for the middle portions of the race, and held together for a final of 119. Instilled Regard earned a pace adjusted 118. He was never too far off it but showed a nice stalking ability. Took over at the quearter pole and finished nicely. This was easily the best prep race to date and this is a top contender so far for the Derby. No real knocks on this effort.

Principe Guilherme: The favorite in this race had always made easy work of his foes, today he was challenged into the first turn, forced to take back, still finished well to be second best. I think this was a solid effort for solid connections and should he show up in a race where Instilled Regard is not in he should have a great shot to win. Lesser colts when asked to do new things often do not run, this horse did. I would continue to view this horse as a contender.

Snapper Sinclair: This horse is the value coming out of this race. He set legit fractions and held right to the end only beaten a few lengths. While the fractions are not coded red, the pace was fast, but so was the finish, with that in mind this horse ran a super race. I am not sure he can beat the top one but I think he offers value in the next race and would love to see him avoid the top one.

Zing Zang: I always view a horse like this suspect, the pace was fast and he closed strongly to look like he was just running out of ground. I suspect he will continue to show that with strong paces but will likely be overbet off this.

A horse I am going to look for coming out of this in say an Alw race is Zeke, he made a bit of a middle move, got shuffled and then tired. He is not Grade stakes level but I thought his trip was a bit hidden and against lesser foes may win at a price.

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Last edited by cj; 02-01-2018 at 11:53 AM.
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Old 01-29-2018, 08:25 PM   #4
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GMB,

Thank you for taking the time to post all of this information.
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Old 01-29-2018, 09:04 PM   #5
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1/15/18 Smarty Jones Stakes, 8.0F, Oaklawn

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20180115&RN=8

Timeform Figures 1/4-94 1/2-92 3/4-107 Final Fig-122

Analysis - Mourinho: A interesting contrast with McKinzie. The race had coded blue figures and a very solid final time with a 122. Pace adjusted the figure was only 116 due to the very soft front end trip. While I viewed McKinzie in a positive light I have to be negative about this son of Super Saver. This feels like a very brilliant middle distance sprinter who was well spotted by top connections. Its amazing to me how many times these socal speed horses who ship into the midwest tracks and enjoy front end wins. There is almost no scenario that I will bet this horse next out and he almost guarantees value if you are against him next race. Dynamite race, solid horse, just feel like he is limited moving forward.

Combatant: I am not sure what to think of him off this. He saved all the ground and then got outpaced on the turn, but it may be a case that with a little bit of help to set a legit pace that he has more finish. That being said I am skeptical, I fee his races have been so so and don't see any wow to him. He is likely to take good money off this effort and not sure there is any real reason to bet him in the next race in the series.

Tap Daddy: unless the distance really helps him this race exposed a lack of talent.

Just to note I dont have the pp's for this race and going off memory of these horses. I have less faith in my opinion of this race other than the winner.



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Last edited by cj; 02-01-2018 at 11:58 AM.
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Old 01-29-2018, 09:21 PM   #6
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I'll add my thanks as well.
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Old 01-30-2018, 09:53 AM   #7
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Great idea. Look forward to participating.
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Old 01-30-2018, 10:14 AM   #8
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"....Timeform released their spreadsheet of the 18' Derby Preps. I wanted to track the Derby Preps and make commentary using their figures for all the prep races starting the first of the year. So some of this is rehash of previous races but will add each weekend...."

I like this format. Thanks for your efforts.

Last edited by Exotic1; 01-30-2018 at 10:16 AM.
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Old 02-05-2018, 02:50 PM   #9
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2/03/18 Withers Stakes, 9.0F, Aqueduct

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20180203&RN=8

Timeform Figures 1/4-141 1/2-141 3/4-131 1m-117 Final Fig-109

Analysis – Avery Island: While much of the talk will be about Audition’s win this weekend Avery Island could make the case to have run the best prep. What looked like a loose on the lead trip quickly turned into anything but when Coltinmississippi decided to gun for the lead, acting as rabbit for his other stable mates. Quickly the two leaders found themselves going way too fast for the distance with code red figures of 141 for the first two splits. While Avery Island did back off a tad the damage was done, he started to tire but only marginally, and held off Firenze Fire and Marconi. The 109 speed figure is not nearly indicative of the effort, the TUS pace adjusted figure was 114 and in my opinion looking at the way the trip developed would bump him up even higher.

Firenze Fire: This race is a definite indictment about this horses ability to go this far. I will give him a bit of credit in that he moved into the pace on the backstretch and would have definitely been better off waiting till the turn, and that may be an indication of the distance issues…its tough to take a real positive view of him Derby wise, solid horse though.

Marconi: I mean this was the ideal trip right, but this one paced horse could not make up any ground on the winner despite a huge advantage in setups. He earned a 107 adjusted figure, on my ability figures it would be even lower. Maybe Pletcher takes him down to GP and he airs but there really only seems like marginal ability at this point.

Coltinmississippi – just going to keep him on my radar for when he is put in the right spot, that’s two races in a row he has a trip I like to bet off of.



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Last edited by cj; 02-05-2018 at 03:46 PM.
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Old 02-05-2018, 03:07 PM   #10
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2/03/18 Holy Bull Stakes, 8.5F, Gulfstream Park

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20180203&RN=12

Timeform Figures 1/4-120 1/2-120 3/4-115 1m-118 Final Fig-120

Analysis – Audible: In general I find the very even distribution of final time and pace the most reliable for judging a horses ability. In this case the race pace was solid every step of the way, with a final time that was equally solid. There was no reason that horses in this race had to not run their race from a pace standpoint, unless that is of course they needed a Pace Advantage to do so. Audible was a complete unknown off his NY form, it was a bit suspicious (NY breds, off the turf race) but he did have solid figures. He was bet pretty heavy though which should have been a good clue. And like most of the Pletcher horses at GP after a sustained drive he rebroke at the top of the stretch. At face value all I can do is say this was solid. He was close to real pace, he finished up fast, earned a solid 119 TUS figure and I have no reason to not take it for just that….but it should be noted on the barn is running out of their skin right now, and usually this regresses in April and May at Kee and NY. I know Always Dreaming did not, well not till after the first Sat in May, but I would not fault anyone who is skeptical of this horse. It cant be off this effort, it was great.

Free Drop Billy: I thought it interesting how this horse was bet, which was pretty heavy. He only had 4 published works and this certainly felt like a prep race but he made a menacing turn move before not keeping up with the winner. Now he was probably a bit short, lost to the Pletcher horse who aired but I am encouraged by this effort, TUS of 113 I can see moving up a few points based on what I stated and 2L next time, betable and continues to be a contender for the Derby.

Enticed/Into Mischief: I was against these two coming in as I rated the JC race at CD much lower in my mind. I saw nothing that makes me think either one of these horses are major players or want to go further.


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Old 02-05-2018, 03:31 PM   #11
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2/03/18 Bob Lewis Stakes, 8.5F, Santa Anita

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20180203&RN=5

Timeform Figures 1/4-133 1/2-133 3/4-122 1m-113 Final Fig-109

Analysis – Lombo: There was a lot of talk about this being a glorified NW1X, which it was, but so are many races like this at this time of year. It definitely featured the “B” 3yo stock of socal but I think we saw an “A” performance. The winner has been knocked a bit in comparison to the other winners this weekend but his pace and speed figures were absolutely legit. For transparency I did hit this horse pretty good but I think he does have ability, maybe not Derby ability but he can run. I believe he went head to head with the most talented 3yo sprinter in the Country in Ax Man (yes I know about Strike Power) and his loss tipped his hand at real ability. He was expected to control the pace in my view and did just that, but did it in real horse race fashion. This race gives great context though between Avery Islands race, which went in 141 pace figure, under duress, compared to 133 free and clear running. So while I would upgrade Avery Islands effort, while not knocking this effort, it should be considered that it was a undisputed lead. I am also not sure about distance but this was a real win, buy a very talented horse... he stands, somewhere around middling contender in my book.

Ayacara: Maybe the most interesting horse to evaluate coming out of the race. He was grinding away from the 3/8ths pole on the inside and finished well. Now here is where the judgement comes in, did he close well or was it due to the face this race went from 122 at the mile to 109 finish? Maybe a little of both. I think his odds dictate what to do next time, if he is undervalued I would view it more positive, but if he is 7/2 against say Lombo and McKinzie I would not be excited to bet him. People will view his trip, trying to catch a loose on the lead winner, more than they should in context of the race shape. He was simply just better then the rest of this NW1X field. I do think he wants to route long on dirt, from a patient barn, so at this point I would keep him in the Derby mix.

Dark Vader – Was chasing the loose on the lead horse saving ground, in legit fractions himself and held well for third. Don’t know if there is any more upside but this was a legit effort in terms of the horses talent.

Peace/Shivermetimbers/Regulate – three well regarded horses from great barns did no running. Not sure I see any reason to be positive about them.


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Last edited by cj; 02-05-2018 at 03:39 PM.
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Old 02-06-2018, 01:43 PM   #12
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Based on my rankings as of 2/6 this is the top 5 derby contenders by 2018 performance

1. Instilled Regard
2. McKinzie
3. Avery Island
4. Audition
5. Principe Guilherme
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Old 02-06-2018, 02:05 PM   #13
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This is a GREAT thread.

Thanks for starting and maintaining it GMB.
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Old 02-07-2018, 08:27 PM   #14
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Updated spreadsheet, cant edit my original post.

https://timeformus.files.wordpress.c...1/derby-12.png
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Old 02-08-2018, 08:06 PM   #15
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This is a GREAT thread.

Thanks for starting and maintaining it GMB.
Agree, thanks GMB
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