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Old 01-28-2018, 08:41 PM   #1
TheOracle
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When Good Chalks Go Bad @AQU!!!

Over the past three racing days at Aqueduct Iíve noticed that Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 were getting destroyed they were only winning at 18.1% prior to Sunday

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...24#post2268424

The actual Favorites were equally getting destroyed as well

It has been a while since Iíve seen such poor performances from Favorites and from what I could tell there were no weather issues.

This has been one of the warmest Januaryís at Aqueduct in years and the famous backstretch wind, to me, had not been a factor over the past three days

If you played long shots at Aqueduct since Thursday you were doing quite well as the average win price prior to Sunday was $14.10

However, for the rest of us, this was a complete carnage in trying to cash a ticket

If I see this type of destruction going into day a 3 and beyond Iím going to start looking at Trainers on the card comparatively to see who is giving the best return per $2 win place and show wager
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Old 01-29-2018, 08:03 AM   #2
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NYRA track bias thread-SEE

Pandy's well written thread on recent track bias might be a good place for you to start.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=143048
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Predicting the outcome of a horse race is an activity that exerts continuing appeal to the extraordinarily opulent. It is intellectually lucrative albeit fiscally ruinous.-Richard Epstein

Last edited by Whosonfirst; 01-29-2018 at 08:05 AM.
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Old 02-01-2018, 10:01 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
Over the past three racing days at Aqueduct Iíve noticed that Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 were getting destroyed they were only winning at 18.1% prior to Sunday

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...24#post2268424

The actual Favorites were equally getting destroyed as well

It has been a while since Iíve seen such poor performances from Favorites and from what I could tell there were no weather issues.

This has been one of the warmest Januaryís at Aqueduct in years and the famous backstretch wind, to me, had not been a factor over the past three days

If you played long shots at Aqueduct since Thursday you were doing quite well as the average win price prior to Sunday was $14.10

However, for the rest of us, this was a complete carnage in trying to cash a ticket

If I see this type of destruction going into day a 3 and beyond Iím going to start looking at Trainers on the card comparatively to see who is giving the best return per $2 win place and show wager

Today at Aqueduct there are 16 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1
which makes up 28% of the entire card before scratches

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:
1    02-01-2018    1st race    2    B Three (NY)    Claiming    One Mile    G DiPrima    7/5#    Dirt
2    02-01-2018    1st race    3    Queenofthechannel (KY)    Claiming    One Mile    R Metivier    9/5#    Dirt
3    02-01-2018    2nd race    2    Ekhtibaar (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    C C Brown    4/5#    Dirt
4    02-01-2018    2nd race    5    Dambrosio (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    T A Pletcher    8/5#    Dirt
5    02-01-2018    3rd race    1    The Chamo (FL)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    G C Contessa    9/5#    Dirt
6    02-01-2018    3rd race    1A    Triangulate (KY)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    L Rice    9/5#    Dirt
7    02-01-2018    3rd race    2    Im an Ocala Dude (FL)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    M Nevin    5/2#    Dirt
8    02-01-2018    4th race    2    Astounding (KY)    Allowance    One And One Eighth Miles    J Servis    9/5#    Dirt
9    02-01-2018    4th race    5    Storm Prophet (NY)    Allowance    One And One Eighth Miles    L Rice    2/1#    Dirt
10    02-01-2018    5th race    2    Split Verdict (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Seven Furlongs    R A Violette Jr.    9/5#    Dirt
11    02-01-2018    5th race    3    Racing Raven (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Seven Furlongs    T A Pletcher    2/1#    Dirt
12    02-01-2018    6th race    3    City of Dreams (NY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    W A Ward    5/2#    Dirt
13    02-01-2018    7th race    2    Tasteful (KY)    Allowance    One Mile    K P McLaughlin    2/1#    Dirt
14    02-01-2018    7th race    3    Full House (KY)    Allowance    One Mile    J A Jerkens    9/5#    Dirt
15    02-01-2018    8th race    2    Jurere (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    L Rice    6/5#    Dirt
16    02-01-2018    8th race    6    Northernstreetgal (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    G C Contessa    5/2#    Dirt
If they are still winning at a rate of only 18 to 20% then I will have to look at which Trainers have been benefiting from this situation!!!

Let's see what Nevin and Rice do today!!!
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Old 02-01-2018, 10:21 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
Today at Aqueduct there are 16 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1
which makes up 28% of the entire card before scratches

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:
1    02-01-2018    1st race    2    B Three (NY)    Claiming    One Mile    G DiPrima    7/5#    Dirt
2    02-01-2018    1st race    3    Queenofthechannel (KY)    Claiming    One Mile    R Metivier    9/5#    Dirt
3    02-01-2018    2nd race    2    Ekhtibaar (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    C C Brown    4/5#    Dirt
4    02-01-2018    2nd race    5    Dambrosio (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    One Mile    T A Pletcher    8/5#    Dirt
5    02-01-2018    3rd race    1    The Chamo (FL)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    G C Contessa    9/5#    Dirt
6    02-01-2018    3rd race    1A    Triangulate (KY)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    L Rice    9/5#    Dirt
7    02-01-2018    3rd race    2    Im an Ocala Dude (FL)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    M Nevin    5/2#    Dirt
8    02-01-2018    4th race    2    Astounding (KY)    Allowance    One And One Eighth Miles    J Servis    9/5#    Dirt
9    02-01-2018    4th race    5    Storm Prophet (NY)    Allowance    One And One Eighth Miles    L Rice    2/1#    Dirt
10    02-01-2018    5th race    2    Split Verdict (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Seven Furlongs    R A Violette Jr.    9/5#    Dirt
11    02-01-2018    5th race    3    Racing Raven (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Seven Furlongs    T A Pletcher    2/1#    Dirt
12    02-01-2018    6th race    3    City of Dreams (NY)    Claiming    Six Furlongs    W A Ward    5/2#    Dirt
13    02-01-2018    7th race    2    Tasteful (KY)    Allowance    One Mile    K P McLaughlin    2/1#    Dirt
14    02-01-2018    7th race    3    Full House (KY)    Allowance    One Mile    J A Jerkens    9/5#    Dirt
15    02-01-2018    8th race    2    Jurere (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    L Rice    6/5#    Dirt
16    02-01-2018    8th race    6    Northernstreetgal (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    G C Contessa    5/2#    Dirt
If they are still winning at a rate of only 18 to 20% then I will have to look at which Trainers have been benefiting from this situation!!!

Let's see what Nevin and Rice do today!!!
Here are the Trainers on today's card that had positive returns per $2 win place and show wager from last Thursday up until Sunday when things fell apart for the Morning Line Favorites



I will also be paying particular attention to G C Contessa's horses should things start go south today his horses didn't win much but they hit the board for some nice prices!!!

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:
1    02-01-2018    3rd race    1    The Chamo (FL)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    G C Contessa    9/5#    Dirt
                                              
2    02-01-2018    5th race    7    Power Boss (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Seven Furlongs    G C Contessa    8/1#    Dirt
                                              
3    02-01-2018    8th race    6    Northernstreetgal (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    G C Contessa    5/2#    Dirt
He has these today let's see how he does especially in the 5th race today at Aqueduct!!!
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Old 02-02-2018, 07:14 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
Here are the Trainers on today's card that had positive returns per $2 win place and show wager from last Thursday up until Sunday when things fell apart for the Morning Line Favorites



I will also be paying particular attention to G C Contessa's horses should things start go south today his horses didn't win much but they hit the board for some nice prices!!!

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:
1    02-01-2018    3rd race    1    The Chamo (FL)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    G C Contessa    9/5#    Dirt
                                              
2    02-01-2018    5th race    7    Power Boss (KY)    Maiden Special Weight    Seven Furlongs    G C Contessa    8/1#    Dirt
                                              
3    02-01-2018    8th race    6    Northernstreetgal (NY)    Maiden Claiming    One Mile    G C Contessa    5/2#    Dirt
He has these today let's see how he does especially in the 5th race today at Aqueduct!!!
Only Nevin, Martin and Ward had positive returns across the board yesterday from the list

Contessa came through with #6 Northernstreetgal one of the few Morning Line Favorites to win yesterday at Aqueduct!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!
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Old 02-02-2018, 10:12 AM   #6
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Here are the Trainers on today's card with positive returns per $2 win place and show wager from Thursday up until yesterday at Aqueduct!!!



Since things are going strange with the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 let's pivot and concentrate on J C Englehart and D S Lalman today!!!
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Old 02-02-2018, 10:50 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
Here are the Trainers on today's card with positive returns per $2 win place and show wager from Thursday up until yesterday at Aqueduct!!!



Since things are going strange with the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 let's pivot and concentrate on J C Englehart and D S Lalman today!!!
Lalman has been a very good investment across the board at Aqueduct since November!!!



Lalman is bringing back #4 Alaapatique in the 6th race today at Aqueduct

6th race
#4 Alaapatique

Let's see if Lalman can get this one to hit the board at a price today!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 02-02-2018 at 10:52 AM.
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Old 02-02-2018, 11:22 AM   #8
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J C Englehart has these today at Aqueduct!!!

2nd race
#4 Spiral Bound

4th race
#5 Karens Gem

Letís see if he can get these to hit the board today at a price!!!
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Old 02-02-2018, 11:27 AM   #9
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For the Morning Lines less than 3-1 on todayís card at Aqueduct

Code:
RowNum:	Date:	Race:	PgmNum:	Horse:	RaceCond:	Distance:	Trainer:	Odds:	Surface:
1	02-02-2018	2nd race	1	Gypsy Jo (NY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	R A Violette Jr.	5/2#	Dirt
2	02-02-2018	4th race	3	Cocktail Countess (KY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	L Rice	5/2#	Dirt
Letís see how these do today!!!
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Old 02-03-2018, 10:14 AM   #10
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Lalman has been a very good investment across the board at Aqueduct since November!!!



Lalman is bringing back #4 Alaapatique in the 6th race today at Aqueduct

6th race
#4 Alaapatique

Let's see if Lalman can get this one to hit the board at a price today!!!
Well #4 Alaapatique disappointed and ran off the board yesterday

I focused on Lalman trying to be greedy and forgot about Contessa whose horses have been giving good returns across the board
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Old 02-03-2018, 10:24 AM   #11
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For the Morning Lines less than 3-1 on todayís card at Aqueduct

Code:
RowNum:	Date:	Race:	PgmNum:	Horse:	RaceCond:	Distance:	Trainer:	Odds:	Surface:
1	02-02-2018	2nd race	1	Gypsy Jo (NY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	R A Violette Jr.	5/2#	Dirt
2	02-02-2018	4th race	3	Cocktail Countess (KY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	L Rice	5/2#	Dirt
Letís see how these do today!!!
#1 Gypsy Jo and #3 Cocktail Countess finished 2nd and 3rd respectively as Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 continue to struggle at Aqueduct!!!

It seems you can beat the Morning Line Favorites anytime you want for now
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Old 02-03-2018, 10:35 AM   #12
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J C Englehart has these today at Aqueduct!!!

2nd race
#4 Spiral Bound

4th race
#5 Karens Gem

Letís see if he can get these to hit the board today at a price!!!
#4 Spiral Bound and #5 Karens Gem disappointed and were both off the board for Englehart yesterday!!!
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Old 02-03-2018, 10:43 AM   #13
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Well #4 Alaapatique disappointed and ran off the board yesterday

I focused on Lalman trying to be greedy and forgot about Contessa whose horses have been giving good returns across the board
Contessa has these at Aqueduct today

Code:
RowNum:	Date:	Race:	PgmNum:	Horse:	RaceCond:	Distance:	Trainer:	Odds:	Surface:
1	02-03-2018	1st race	3	American Road (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	G C Contessa	4/1#	Dirt
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
2	02-03-2018	2nd race	6	Theresas Boy (NY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	G C Contessa	3/1#	Dirt
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
3	02-03-2018	5th race	3	Starlite Mission (NY)	Maiden Special Weight	Six Furlongs	G C Contessa	9/2#	Dirt
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
4	02-03-2018	6th race	7	Heat Check (NY)	Claiming	One Mile	G C Contessa	20/1#	Dirt
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
5	02-03-2018	7th race	5	Mighty Zealous (NY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	Six And One Half Furlongs	G C Contessa	5/1#	Dirt
Letís see how these do today at the Big A!!!
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Old 02-03-2018, 12:06 PM   #14
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Contessa has these at Aqueduct today

Code:
RowNum:    Date:    Race:    PgmNum:    Horse:    RaceCond:    Distance:    Trainer:    Odds:    Surface:
1    02-03-2018    1st race    3    American Road (KY)    Claiming    One Mile    G C Contessa    4/1#    Dirt
                                              
2    02-03-2018    2nd race    6    Theresas Boy (NY)    Maiden Claiming    Six Furlongs    G C Contessa    3/1#    Dirt
                                              
3    02-03-2018    5th race    3    Starlite Mission (NY)    Maiden Special Weight    Six Furlongs    G C Contessa    9/2#    Dirt
                                              
4    02-03-2018    6th race    7    Heat Check (NY)    Claiming    One Mile    G C Contessa    20/1#    Dirt
                                              
5    02-03-2018    7th race    5    Mighty Zealous (NY)    Allowance Optional Claiming    Six And One Half Furlongs    G C Contessa    5/1#    Dirt
Letís see how these do today at the Big A!!!

Contessa's record since January 25th



He is giving you a 38% return per $2 win place and show wager he might be able to get one to pop for a nice price today at Aqueduct especially the way the Favorites have been running!!!
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Old 02-03-2018, 07:43 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
Contessa has these at Aqueduct today

Code:
RowNum:	Date:	Race:	PgmNum:	Horse:	RaceCond:	Distance:	Trainer:	Odds:	Surface:
1	02-03-2018	1st race	3	American Road (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	G C Contessa	4/1#	Dirt
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
2	02-03-2018	2nd race	6	Theresas Boy (NY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	G C Contessa	3/1#	Dirt
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
3	02-03-2018	5th race	3	Starlite Mission (NY)	Maiden Special Weight	Six Furlongs	G C Contessa	9/2#	Dirt
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
4	02-03-2018	6th race	7	Heat Check (NY)	Claiming	One Mile	G C Contessa	20/1#	Dirt
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
5	02-03-2018	7th race	5	Mighty Zealous (NY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	Six And One Half Furlongs	G C Contessa	5/1#	Dirt
Letís see how these do today at the Big A!!!

Contessaís horses did absolutely nothing today

Code:
RowNum:	Date:	Race:	PgmNum:	Horse:	RaceCond:	Distance:	Trainer:	Odds:	TrackCond:	WinAmt:	PlaceAmt:	ShowAmt:
1	02-03-2018	1st race	3	American Road (KY)	Claiming	One Mile	G C Contessa	4/1#	Dirt Good	0.0	0.0	0.0
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
2	02-03-2018	2nd race	6	Theresas Boy (NY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	G C Contessa	3/1#	Dirt Good	0.0	0.0	2.2
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
3	02-03-2018	5th race	3	Starlite Mission (NY)	Maiden Special Weight	Six Furlongs	G C Contessa	9/2#	Dirt Fast	0.0	0.0	0.0
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
4	02-03-2018	6th race	7	Heat Check (NY)	Claiming	One Mile	G C Contessa	20/1#	Dirt Fast	0.0	0.0	0.0
 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
5	02-03-2018	7th race	5	Mighty Zealous (NY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	Six And One Half Furlongs	G C Contessa	5/1#	Dirt Fast	0.0	0.0	0.0
I was hoping one of these would pop for a price!!!
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