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Old 01-29-2018, 10:11 AM   #31
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It gets better, the tracks pay them to do it in the form of rebates.
This is what I did not know until reading Betting with an Edge.

That Kee, SA, I assume NYRA does as well, rebate to certain players. I thought it was ADW's who used their margins to afford to rebate but I know now the tracks themselves actually have two different effective takeout rates on the races they offer depending on who you are.
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Old 01-29-2018, 10:48 AM   #32
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Love this thread. You guys don't miss a beat.

I saw the action on #3 in the last at SA Sunday, too. I had this horse as my value play in that race and was shocked to see it higher than #9, who it had beaten head to head. In fact, if memory is correct, very close to post, #3 was 13-1 and #9 was 9-2.

The guy who posted the Daily Double will-pays is on to something. Every single will-pay to the 3 was paying out higher than it was to the 9, except with the winner of the 8th race. Think about that for a minute. Everything is in line perfectly except the winning payoff. No way this is coincidental.

Regarding the CPW situation, you're stuck with this forever. What track is going to "take a stand" against a bunch of money coming into their pools? This is the problem with parimutuel wagering. The track gets a cut of ALL money in their pools, not just legitimate, or fair, money. The track benefits from these computer programs. The track does not care about who wins the race, only that the pools are large and their cut is extracted. However, if the betting were fixed odds and the track was on the hook, so to speak, you'd be damn sure they would correct all of these CPW, late bets, past posting and other shaking things happening.

The bottom line for me is this, I don't believe in coincidence as it relates to wagering in large pools. I think money generally flows parallel in all pools. While there is an occasional anomaly, I think most of these situations are likely either outright nefarious (i.e. toteboard/pool manipulation, past posting) or borderline nefarious (i.e. inside information, CPW). The fact that the track neither sees this betting pattern as an issue nor would take any action to investigate it if they did see an issue is all the reason we should retire from the game.

I'm dead serious. Lack of integrity and oversight in the wagering pools would be the one thing that would bring this game to its knees.
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Old 01-29-2018, 12:10 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
This is what I did not know until reading Betting with an Edge.

That Kee, SA, I assume NYRA does as well, rebate to certain players. I thought it was ADW's who used their margins to afford to rebate but I know now the tracks themselves actually have two different effective takeout rates on the races they offer depending on who you are.
some of the computer players pay $40,000 for a consul to be hooked up directly into the tracks pools. those are the guys that are doing the game no good, the other computer groups are fine with me and there are plenty of them that aren't as big.

as far as i know, Oaklawn does not accept any batch players. Tampa does but they do not give any tote information that the regular public does not have as far as i know.
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Old 01-29-2018, 12:53 PM   #34
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The technology to post bets during the running of the race is already a reality at the exchange like BetFair has...all it would take is to apply those tools to non- exchange parimutuel pools...do the ADW-s send their batches in after the gates opens...?
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Old 01-29-2018, 09:01 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Track Phantom View Post
Love this thread. You guys don't miss a beat.

I saw the action on #3 in the last at SA Sunday, too. I had this horse as my value play in that race and was shocked to see it higher than #9, who it had beaten head to head. In fact, if memory is correct, very close to post, #3 was 13-1 and #9 was 9-2.

The guy who posted the Daily Double will-pays is on to something. Every single will-pay to the 3 was paying out higher than it was to the 9, except with the winner of the 8th race. Think about that for a minute. Everything is in line perfectly except the winning payoff. No way this is coincidental.

Regarding the CPW situation, you're stuck with this forever. What track is going to "take a stand" against a bunch of money coming into their pools? This is the problem with parimutuel wagering. The track gets a cut of ALL money in their pools, not just legitimate, or fair, money. The track benefits from these computer programs. The track does not care about who wins the race, only that the pools are large and their cut is extracted. However, if the betting were fixed odds and the track was on the hook, so to speak, you'd be damn sure they would correct all of these CPW, late bets, past posting and other shaking things happening.

The bottom line for me is this, I don't believe in coincidence as it relates to wagering in large pools. I think money generally flows parallel in all pools. While there is an occasional anomaly, I think most of these situations are likely either outright nefarious (i.e. toteboard/pool manipulation, past posting) or borderline nefarious (i.e. inside information, CPW). The fact that the track neither sees this betting pattern as an issue nor would take any action to investigate it if they did see an issue is all the reason we should retire from the game.

I'm dead serious. Lack of integrity and oversight in the wagering pools would be the one thing that would bring this game to its knees.
Maybe, maybe not. The inside horse went off at 8/1, and was shorter to 2 or 3 horses than the subject horse, at 5/1. If the winning combo would have been half what the 9/3 would have paid, then I'd be really wondering also, but the difference between the 2 is only about $30-$50 of DD bets.

Your last paragraph is dead on. I've been dedicated to this game for 30+ years, but the BS in this game just leaves me sick.
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Old 01-29-2018, 10:33 PM   #36
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Manipulation


1. to manage or influence skillfully, especially in an unfair manner:

2. to adapt or change (accounts, figures, etc.) to suit one's purpose or advantage.

Most times as a horse player, when you here the words "pool manipulation", you think of a large bet being place and the canceled. Or you think of bets being placed on other horses to drive the odds on the betting target upwards.

Robotic wagering is nothing more than pool manipulation that is condoned by the ADW's, tracks and their management. Robots look for "value" in a pool or pools. Then wager amounts of money according to the values that have been pre-programmed into that computer. These wagers are for profit, and it does not matter if the profit comes from winning wagers or rebates.

What matters is the effect that these wagers have on the pool. If a Robot thinks that a horse should be 5-1 instead of 13-1 it will wager a amount that is going to bring the odds into line of what it is programmed to think. In the same situation if the computer thinks that a horse that is 5-1 and should be 13-1, it places bets on other horses that will drive the odds on that horse towards the 13-1. The computer is in effect, controlling the odds of the pool or pool's, and is doing this for profit. It does not matter which way the odds go because, by doing this, it is doing the exact definition of manipulation, changing figures to suit one's purpose or advantage.

ADW's and the tracks that accept these wagers are, in fact, also part of the pool manipulation. By allowing these computers access to the pools in any other way that is different than the general public, they are condoning pool manipulation, and are doing it to suit their purpose, profit from the handle.

This can be accomplished very simply, continue to show the odds, probables, and will pays as it is done right now, but eliminate the pool totals until the race
is off. By eliminating pool totals you have eliminated the robots one advantage, and that is its ability to manipulate the pool.
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Old 01-30-2018, 05:57 AM   #37
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Yes it shouldn't be too hard to find the accounts of these whales at Twinspires, Xpressbet or wherever they wager and to close them.
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Old 02-02-2018, 01:49 PM   #38
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Really...this IS true isn't it...? Has racing really come to this...?

Automated betting programs that use arbitrage programs to find and "recover" the net value in a race no matter who wins...No wonder wagering is going down the tubes for the little guys...SUCKS BIG TIME. BAN THEM.
Adapt or die.

Why curse someone who has found a way to use today's technology to possibly profit on racing? Isn't that what MOST OF US try and do?

I will never understand the vitriol that gets thrown at these computer players.

You could do what they're doing...but you either need to write your own software to do it, or hire someone...good luck.
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Old 02-02-2018, 01:51 PM   #39
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This stinks to high heaven...! These sharpies are linked into will-pay tables using programs that look for patterns and overlays and execute thousands of wagers in nano-seconds..

....obviously that is an edge that is being exploited using high-technology that the rest of us just don't have...

...if this means that the majority of winnings are returned to a small subset of high-tech CRW operators at the expense of higher take-out rates for all of us, then that is just plain NASTY...

...even if you think it is just an intelligent way to make money....it just doesn't seem right...just feels like a pool skimming operation, in essence...IMHO.
You don't have access to will-pays? Sure you do.

You're just incapable of writing the software capable of reading and analyzing these things. And because of this, you want to take away their edge?

It would be like complaining against someone who had a better set of speed figures than you do...demanding they either release their figures to the public or be banned from using them...
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Old 02-02-2018, 01:52 PM   #40
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Adapt or die.

Why curse someone who has found a way to use today's technology to possibly profit on racing? Isn't that what MOST OF US try and do?

I will never understand the vitriol that gets thrown at these computer players.

You could do what they're doing...but you either need to write your own software to do it, or hire someone...good luck.
Racing has been doing really well with the adapting...I predict big things for its future.
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Old 02-02-2018, 01:54 PM   #41
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Racing has been doing really well with the adapting...I predict big things for its future.
I was talking about the player adapting.
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Old 02-02-2018, 02:02 PM   #42
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I was talking about the player adapting.
They player does not adapt when they see the system as unfair or broken, they leave.
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Old 02-02-2018, 02:08 PM   #43
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They player does not adapt when they see the system as unfair or broken, they leave.
What's unfair about someone having an edge? That's the whole purpose of the game...to get an edge other people do not have.

They aren't doing anything illegal...they have computer programs that analyze pool data and bet accordingly.

I wrote software about 10 years ago that would do the same (although on a much more rudimentary level). It scraped pool data off the web and made bets automatically.

Should I be in jail?

Jeez...
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Old 02-02-2018, 02:24 PM   #44
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What's unfair about someone having an edge? That's the whole purpose of the game...to get an edge other people do not have.

They aren't doing anything illegal...they have computer programs that analyze pool data and bet accordingly.

I wrote software about 10 years ago that would do the same (although on a much more rudimentary level). It scraped pool data off the web and made bets automatically.

Should I be in jail?

Jeez...
So if I walk into the OTB down the street, how exactly do I complete with these players. Not everyone has access to this computer batch betting, yet were betting into the same pools, thus an unfair advantage is created.
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Old 02-02-2018, 02:31 PM   #45
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So if I walk into the OTB down the street, how exactly do I complete with these players. Not everyone has access to this computer batch betting, yet were betting into the same pools, thus an unfair advantage is created.
Not everyone has access to private pace and speed numbers that are superior to the publicly available ones...how do you compete with that?

I don't understand the reasoning here, and I never have, as this debate has been going on for quite a while.
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