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Old 01-28-2018, 10:42 PM   #16
chenoa
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Look at doubles with andgoing into the 9th, the is higher with every horse except the winner which was the .

This smells!!!

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Old 01-28-2018, 10:44 PM   #17
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This stinks to high heaven...! These sharpies are linked into will-pay tables using programs that look for patterns and overlays and execute thousands of wagers in nano-seconds..

....obviously that is an edge that is being exploited using high-technology that the rest of us just don't have...

...if this means that the majority of winnings are returned to a small subset of high-tech CRW operators at the expense of higher take-out rates for all of us, then that is just plain NASTY...

...even if you think it is just an intelligent way to make money....it just doesn't seem right...just feels like a pool skimming operation, in essence...IMHO.
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Old 01-28-2018, 10:55 PM   #18
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It gets better, the tracks pay them to do it in the form of rebates.
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Old 01-28-2018, 10:55 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by chenoa View Post
Look at doubles with andgoing into the 9th, the is higher with every horse except the winner which was the .

This smells!!!
So what does that tell you...? The fact that 3/5 is lower than 9/5...? That SOMEBODY has made a group of 3/5 double wagers at a higher rate than the 3/9 wagers...that after looking at this the bots THEN BET the 3/5 even more...
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Old 01-28-2018, 10:58 PM   #20
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It gets better, the tracks pay them to do it in the form of rebates.
They prole WRITE-OFF the rebates as some form of gimmick advertising expense/ cost of doing business...huh...?
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Old 01-28-2018, 11:27 PM   #21
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Maybe AndyC can answer that. IRS minutia is not my forte.
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Old 01-28-2018, 11:36 PM   #22
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Why would the bot make the horse short in the exotics? That would imply handicapping. Sure, the bot could scan the will pays for race 8 while betting is going on for race 6, but how would it know there is an overlay in the P3 pool, how would it know where the subject horse should stand in the hierarchy of odds, unless it has given some type of handicapped value to the subject horse in advance? By scanning values during the betting of race 8, the bot just sees the pools are out of whack, and fixes them. No handicapping involved.

Your scenario would fit my example 2 more than bot involvement.

It depends on your definition of Bot. I took it to be an automated computer based wagering process. Not the idea of a single program looking at pricing mismatches.
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Old 01-28-2018, 11:47 PM   #23
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It depends on your definition of Bot. I took it to be an automated computer based wagering process. Not the idea of a single program looking at pricing mismatches.
You could be right. If so, if the bot is handicapping, it has as much chance of creating overlays as it does taking advantage of them.

As often as we see winning favorites get seriously hammered, we have to admit, there are those that don't win also. Can't remember the horse's name, but it was the 5th on Thursday at SA, . Entered the gate at 9/2, crossed the line at 2/1. Problem was, 2 horses crossed it before he did. It was serious late money at those prices. A nice 6/1 TBaze directed mount got there best as could be.
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Old 01-29-2018, 12:00 AM   #24
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But if a horse is getting hammered, shouldn't the bot in effect get OFF the under priced favorite and on to something else...?
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Old 01-29-2018, 12:08 AM   #25
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I would think, when everything is taken into account, a bot could see a 7/5 horse and determine it should be Even. As far as it's concerned, it's 40% overlayed. Maybe some handicapping is going into that. I hope so. If there is a computer program that can make sense out of the chaos that is a horse race, it is buried deep in some hillside at the 60th parallel. These guys make their money off rebates, not winners. Sucking value gets them to the 95% winnings/$bet, and the rebate takes care of the profit. If they could mechanically pick winners with any regularity, these guys that bet 100s of millions a year would be winning even more hundreds of millions a year.
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Old 01-29-2018, 12:26 AM   #26
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It depends on your definition of Bot. I took it to be an automated computer based wagering process. Not the idea of a single program looking at pricing mismatches.
I guess, if anything, they're taking statistics into account as a "handicapping" process. Usually these kinds of operations come down to probabilities. I guess they could get into the exotics early, now that I think it through a little more.

Good god, they would be spreading all over. The race we are discussing had 90 possible DD combos going into the previous race. The P3 was probably in excess of 700 different probables going into the race 2 back. I would think you'd want to keep the human element out as much as possible.

Effin' mind blowing.
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Old 01-29-2018, 01:30 AM   #27
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Old 01-29-2018, 02:23 AM   #28
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There are only 3 possible scenarios here.

1) The crowd makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, notices the discrepancy at post time, and corrects it. Likely hood........ damn near 0%

2) A bettor in the know or a handicapper that has "found a jewel" makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, and then capitalizes additionally on the overlay in the win pool with a $10K to $15K win bet, the amount necessary at SA to move a horse from 13-1 to 5-1 on a high handle Sunday afternoon.
Likely hood.............maybe, maybe, not impossible.

3) Combo of crowd and committed bettors throw this horse into their DDs and P3 combos as a "most likely alternative" to the main contenders, horse gets neglected in the win pool, bot picks up on it. Likely hood............better bet than the other two.
There is two other implications here:

1) These programs have access to information not available to the general public.

2) They have access to all pools and are betting or canceling after the race has started.

The horse we are talking about was ML 10-1 and ranked 7th in the morning line. But also had a good trainer and jockey combo, a bad ML for sure but not not off by much.

The other race to consider on this is the last race at Gulfstream on Sunday. The two favorites 8, and 9 both went up in odds after the gate opened. They were both the low Double, pick 3-5 favorites. The 9 reared and lost the rider and the 8 stayed close enough to watch the 9. Both have bad breaks and happen to go up in odds.

The late odds swings are common, but are too accurate, and often reflect the break. Meaning, of course, that a horse that breaks bad goes up, and horses that break in order, go down. Don't confuse a good break to mean that a horse gets the lead, it just means that there is not a noticeable problem with the break.
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Old 01-29-2018, 03:07 AM   #29
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i have been watching the gate punching now for the past 10 years, the funny thing is that these privileged guys today are not the greatest gate callers that i have ever seen. i have seen plenty of outside horses go from 8-1 to 12-1 out of the gate with a 3 length lead! sometimes these guys are calling the wrong horse!. when i use to call the break i never got it wrong because i memorized color of the caps on the outside horses. it also depends upon what angle the television feed is. most of the time it is a sideways feed, but in Maryland you get both the pan shot and the head on. the head on is great for canceling tickets.
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Old 01-29-2018, 03:17 AM   #30
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i have been watching the gate punching now for the past 10 years, the funny thing is that these privileged guys today are not the greatest gate callers that i have ever seen. i have seen plenty of outside horses go from 8-1 to 12-1 out of the gate with a 3 length lead! sometimes these guys are calling the wrong horse!. when i use to call the break i never got it wrong because i memorized color of the caps on the outside horses. it also depends upon what angle the television feed is. most of the time it is a sideways feed, but in Maryland you get both the pan shot and the head on. the head on is great for canceling tickets.
Agree, try calling the break at 1 1/16 mile at Delta, or I think it is 7f at Tampa. But a mile or 6f at Gulfstream is pretty easy. Just depends on the track and camera view.
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