Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 01-28-2018, 08:24 PM   #1
outofthebox
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 618
Rep Power: 8 outofthebox will become famous soon enough
Yuvetsi 8th Santa Anita

Yuvetsi heading to gate at SA at 13-1. Entering gate she is 10-1. She hits the wire in front at 5-1. That is some serious late action to move a horse without any late scratches. Holy crap...
outofthebox is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2018, 08:51 PM   #2
thaskalos
The Sleeper Must Awaken
 
thaskalos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 21,617
Rep Power: 43 thaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to behold
Can you imagine what the closing odds on Yuvetsi would have been if the race was a ROUTE instead of a sprint?
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2018, 09:23 PM   #3
VigorsTheGrey
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,260
Rep Power: 8 VigorsTheGrey has a spectacular aura aboutVigorsTheGrey has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by outofthebox View Post
Yuvetsi heading to gate at SA at 13-1. Entering gate she is 10-1. She hits the wire in front at 5-1. That is some serious late action to move a horse without any late scratches. Holy crap...
Glad you picked up on that...thought I was going crazy...I saw the horse load at 13-1...didn't know what to think when it paid 5-1...
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2018, 09:41 PM   #4
Frost king
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 191
Rep Power: 5 Frost king is on a distinguished road
Horse was 3rd choice in the Doubles, and the Pick 3 going into the race.
Frost king is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2018, 10:01 PM   #5
ultracapper
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,906
Rep Power: 8 ultracapper is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frost king View Post
Horse was 3rd choice in the Doubles, and the Pick 3 going into the race.
The "bots" detect the pool discrepancy and suck the value right out of it.
ultracapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2018, 10:07 PM   #6
VigorsTheGrey
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,260
Rep Power: 8 VigorsTheGrey has a spectacular aura aboutVigorsTheGrey has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper View Post
The "bots" detect the pool discrepancy and suck the value right out of it.
Really...this IS true isn't it...? Has racing really come to this...?

Automated betting programs that use arbitrage programs to find and "recover" the net value in a race no matter who wins...No wonder wagering is going down the tubes for the little guys...SUCKS BIG TIME. BAN THEM.
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2018, 10:41 PM   #7
ultracapper
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,906
Rep Power: 8 ultracapper is on a distinguished road
There are only 3 possible scenarios here.

1) The crowd makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, notices the discrepancy at post time, and corrects it. Likely hood........ damn near 0%

2) A bettor in the know or a handicapper that has "found a jewel" makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, and then capitalizes additionally on the overlay in the win pool with a $10K to $15K win bet, the amount necessary at SA to move a horse from 13-1 to 5-1 on a high handle Sunday afternoon.
Likely hood.............maybe, maybe, not impossible.

3) Combo of crowd and committed bettors throw this horse into their DDs and P3 combos as a "most likely alternative" to the main contenders, horse gets neglected in the win pool, bot picks up on it. Likely hood............better bet than the other two.
ultracapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2018, 11:05 PM   #8
VigorsTheGrey
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,260
Rep Power: 8 VigorsTheGrey has a spectacular aura aboutVigorsTheGrey has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper View Post
There are only 3 possible scenarios here.

1) The crowd makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, notices the discrepancy at post time, and corrects it. Likely hood........ damn near 0%

2) A bettor in the know or a handicapper that has "found a jewel" makes the subject horse 3rd in the DDs and P3s, and then capitalizes additionally on the overlay in the win pool with a $10K to $15K win bet, the amount necessary at SA to move a horse from 13-1 to 5-1 on a high handle Sunday afternoon.
Likely hood.............maybe, maybe, not impossible.

3) Combo of crowd and committed bettors throw this horse into their DDs and P3 combos as a "most likely alternative" to the main contenders, horse gets neglected in the win pool, bot picks up on it. Likely hood............better bet than the other two.
Either the bots are in use or they are not, generally...would like someone who knows for sure to step up and say so...if that is the case, and the bots are in play then we must assume that they are in play for a large percentage of racing, draining value out of the parimutuel pools...though I don't know if this is legal, it certainly is not fair to the rank and file bettors (But hey, who cares about fairness, right...? (stinking liberals)...)

Does anyone really know for sure, and how pervasive robo-wagers are....?
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2018, 11:09 PM   #9
ultracapper
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,906
Rep Power: 8 ultracapper is on a distinguished road
The fact there were 2 bets made, first, from 13/1 to 10/1, and then seeing after that bet that the adjustment isn't maximized, from 10/1 to 5/1, indicates that there is just some mathematics driven program directing that adjustment. IMHO.

Neither bet, at that time in the betting process, are insignificant moves. It took $1000s each time to make those moves.

Last edited by ultracapper; 01-28-2018 at 11:11 PM.
ultracapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2018, 11:12 PM   #10
iamt
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 101
Rep Power: 5 iamt will become famous soon enough
Why is the assumption that the bot is only coming in late.

It is more likely that the bot was responsible for the runner being short in the double and pick 3s to start with. The public has then continued to neglect the horse in the win pools up until post time where the bot comes in and bets the runner down closer to their line.
iamt is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2018, 11:12 PM   #11
VigorsTheGrey
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,260
Rep Power: 8 VigorsTheGrey has a spectacular aura aboutVigorsTheGrey has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper View Post
The fact there were 2 bets made, first, from 13/1 to 10/1, and then seeing after that bet that the adjustment isn't maximized, from 10/1 to 5/1, indicates that there is just some mathematics driven program directing that adjustment. IMHO.

Neither bet, at that time in the betting process, are insignificant moves. It took $1000s each time to make those moves.
So robo-wagering programs are a reality and are in use, right...?
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2018, 11:15 PM   #12
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 41,753
Rep Power: 66 cj is a splendid one to beholdcj is a splendid one to beholdcj is a splendid one to beholdcj is a splendid one to beholdcj is a splendid one to beholdcj is a splendid one to beholdcj is a splendid one to behold
Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey View Post
Either the bots are in use or they are not, generally...would like someone who knows for sure to step up and say so...if that is the case, and the bots are in play then we must assume that they are in play for a large percentage of racing, draining value out of the parimutuel pools...though I don't know if this is legal, it certainly is not fair to the rank and file bettors (But hey, who cares about fairness, right...? (stinking liberals)...)

Does anyone really know for sure, and how pervasive robo-wagers are....?
Of course they are in play, this has been going on for a while, CRW = Computer Robotic Wagering.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/...ank-angst.aspx
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2018, 11:25 PM   #13
VigorsTheGrey
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,260
Rep Power: 8 VigorsTheGrey has a spectacular aura aboutVigorsTheGrey has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Of course they are in play, this has been going on for a while, CRW = Computer Robotic Wagering.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/...ank-angst.aspx
My main concern is, if indeed CRW utilizes arbitrage methods that clearly make profits by shifting amounts in such a fashion that makes it automatically profitable given the current set-up with rebates and all...?

I've read that, for entities wagers many millions of dollars per year, the rebates could be as high as 8% or more...
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2018, 11:31 PM   #14
chenoa
Registered User
 
chenoa's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 359
Rep Power: 4 chenoa is on a distinguished road
What about chunks of cancelled win money on another horse affecting the odds, have seen that before!!
__________________
Keepin' the game alive!!!
chenoa is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2018, 11:32 PM   #15
ultracapper
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,906
Rep Power: 8 ultracapper is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamt View Post
Why is the assumption that the bot is only coming in late.

It is more likely that the bot was responsible for the runner being short in the double and pick 3s to start with. The public has then continued to neglect the horse in the win pools up until post time where the bot comes in and bets the runner down closer to their line.
Why would the bot make the horse short in the exotics? That would imply handicapping. Sure, the bot could scan the will pays for race 8 while betting is going on for race 6, but how would it know there is an overlay in the P3 pool, how would it know where the subject horse should stand in the hierarchy of odds, unless it has given some type of handicapped value to the subject horse in advance? By scanning values during the betting of race 8, the bot just sees the pools are out of whack, and fixes them. No handicapping involved.

Your scenario would fit my example 2 more than bot involvement.

Last edited by ultracapper; 01-28-2018 at 11:37 PM.
ultracapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Reason for drop off...
More computer programs are 'playing' - 18.00%
9 Votes
An unknown or undetectable drug is in use. - 8.00%
4 Votes
Loss of fresh money in pools (only seasoned players left) - 62.00%
31 Votes
Other - 12.00%
6 Votes
Total Votes: 50
This poll is closed.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:35 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.