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Old 01-29-2018, 12:06 AM   #61
linrom1
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No will pays were posted before the race went off,was that intentional to hide the relatively low payoffs;many players who put in tickets with lots of permutations would've been disappointed in their return after all the hype/buildup leading up to the mandatory payout day.
Exactly! Stronach Group had a decision to make: pay off about 42,000 ticket holders, or make their large bettors whole. Guess which decision they made.

The race was a farce with the 8 and 9 taken out of the race.
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Old 01-29-2018, 12:35 AM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quesmark View Post
No will pays were posted before the race went off,was that intentional to hide the relatively low payoffs;many players who put in tickets with lots of permutations would've been disappointed in their return after all the hype/buildup leading up to the mandatory payout day.
I have not seen will-pays since that screw-up a couple years back when an early bet from Chicago was placed before early scratches known. Will-pays were shown, but late betting made a new favorite that won. The early scratch bet was switched to the favorite, making 2 tickets on the winner and no jackpot.

The 5 drifted out in the stretch, changing both 3 and 11's path. I have seen DQs sometimes from similar action.
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Old 01-29-2018, 07:12 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by sammy the sage View Post
Well Lemon Drop Husker...I hope you HAVE that secret 10 million dollar ++ horse that NOBODY else handicapped....really...

Personally...think this will pay between $15 & $30 K...although last big one paid $85K...plenty to go around...

the one horse I wouldn't leave off is the 6 in the 8th...Ward's...has the most upside of any....and might actually go off favored...yet have seen thousands of dollars tix already constructed without this horse...don't let that be you!

All that said...if ya'll cut another horse that wins to get this one in...not taking any responsibility...this is like all internet or OTB touts...most are wrong...
Good call on the payoff...and more importantly the #6 in the 8th. Took your advice but got knocked out in the 4th leg.
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Old 01-29-2018, 11:23 AM   #64
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Lady behind me had the last race covered plus several singles and hit it with small ticket. Skill or luck? Dunno. Have seen her around some.

Last edited by vegasone; 01-29-2018 at 11:24 AM.
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Old 01-29-2018, 11:52 AM   #65
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Sounds like everyone hit this bet between message boards and twitter....who knew it was that easy
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Old 01-29-2018, 12:47 PM   #66
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Sounds like everyone hit this bet between message boards and twitter....who knew it was that easy


It just shows how hard the game is, and how gullible the average player/customer is considered to be.

I think that fellow PA member 'Teach' was the only guy I saw specify the 5 before the race. Teach wisely went five deep in a leg that required depth, and was very sharp to pick the winner (I went six deep, and did not have him!). Teach posted a winning ticket for about $1,600 or possibly less with an ABC system. Not sure, but I may(or may not) have seen some 'All' for the last leg with Facebook friends, although I don't believe anyone happened to post a winning ticket in that small sample.
I gave Teach some congrats, and he deserves a lot more congrats for those picks. He is a regular poster in the selections section. Selections board can get quiet at times.



After the race, I was amazed that some touted the as their Top Selection!!
Glad they recouped some $ for what must be miserable other 364d/yr with a system that picks that horse on top...

I can't knock anyone who earns income as a tout. At least not as a man. More power to anyone who can earn a living or additional income in this game.

In serious handicapping/horseplaying discussion, there is really no place for redboarding.

A Vic Stauffer gets a pass in a situation like this. He's paid his dues, and we know he's simply proud of a score on a clever ticket. Maybe he's been waiting to go all-in on Madame Uno since he handicapped the Paco Lopez race @ Belmont? Or maybe this was one of some 25 tickets? It was a sharp play.

For 'ordinary' players, or someone who wants to sell me something, you have to post before the race for any credit.
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Old 01-29-2018, 01:38 PM   #67
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For 'ordinary' players, or someone who wants to sell me something, you have to post before the race for any credit.
Fair enough...but the 11000 I have in my pocket from Saturdays score feels the same whether you give me credit or not...who would make something like that up?? and btw, I enjoy your posts and do recognize you as a fairly sharp player..
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Old 01-29-2018, 01:41 PM   #68
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Regarding it being hard or easy, it is simply numbers. 4 million was bet. That was 20 million combos played. Of the 20 million combos played, around 450 connected(I don't know the exact numbers or takeout). As mentioned beore it even started, the 2 in leg 4 was likely the horse singled the most, so he made it a lot easier.

The payoff was okay. The pick 5 paid $4000 and parlayed to the winner of the 7th made for the equivalent of a $24,000 payoff for 50 cents(of course they payout for 4 as well, so maybe a $26,000-$28,000 payoff for 50 cents which is about $11,000 for a 20 cent pick 6. Due to the reduced takeout on the pick 6 (carryover offset most of the take out) you had a little premium.

As just mentioned with a carryover and so much being bet the takeout washes out the carryover so the value is not in the carryover, it is in the reduced takeout and the nature of how players are playing. In the days leading up to the mandatory payout, a couple of the pick payoffs were very good(despite a ridiculous takeout), because so much money was being bet chasing the impossible longshots and trying to pull down a jackpot. On the mandatory payout day, the playing field shifted to a normal pick 6, but with so many people playing, you are going to see tilt on the heavy favorites(I got a kick out of Kurt Hoover asking Matt on TVG the strategy for playing the rainbow 6 as he doesn't play it-Hello Kurt-this was a regular pick 6 with carryover-the same kind you play 50 time a year at Santa Anita-you don't have to bet 20 cent tickets) The heavy chalks on the card were leg 3, who won, leg 4 who won and leg 5 that lost. With 2 of these 3 horses winning that killed any chance of getting a really good payout, because the key to pick sixes is singles. Most players single someone, somewhere, if not 2 or 3 horses and if they don't they likely are not going to find the longshot winners like we saw in the final leg. In a pick 6 it is typically inevitable that at least one price horse(oddball) pop up. If they dont, it pays squat and eveyone and their grandmother brings down the pick 6(as would have happened had the 8 had a clean break in the final leg).

There was a lot of discussion on whether the winner of the last warranted play. When you are spreading a race, doesn't matter. You use any horse that has any real chance of winning. If I line a race, I typically will take horses up to 30-1 my line. I didn't line the race, but not a chance I would have made him over 30-1 in the race.

The bottom line is, hitting pick 6's is not about finding all the winners typically, it is about managing to get them all on 1 ticket. You basically have to do everything right and after that a little lady luck doesn't hurt. The larger the budget the easier it is, the smaller the budget the tougher it is. Had I played my preferred approach which would have cost about $1200 bucks or so, I would have hit, but did not feel this card warranted that kind of play. So I played for a fraction of that and of course ended up with 5. That is sort of the nature of the beast.

Completely off topic but just to give an example of how crazy this game can be. Last night saw there was a carryover at Hawthorne. So I print out the pp's
handicap the card as fast as I can and with about 5 minutes to post, come up with a caveman ticket of $192(I don't even bet Hawthorne Harness). I don't want to put $192 into it. So I start reviewing, find a couple of horses I need to add, now I defintiely cannot play a caveman ticket because I am now at
2-4/3-5-6-8/1-2-3/3-4-5-6/1-3-4-6-7-8 which would have brought my caveman ticket up to $288. So I get cute and play needing my top choice in either the 2nd or 3rd (I have cost myself some nice scores doing this before, but that is the limitations of a budget-there are also plenty of times that you save yourself $144 and nothing becomes of either ticket or you hit anyways). Brought my cost down to $144 (not much different than the $192 ticket I started with). So you can guess most of the story, of course both of the top choices who were heavy chalks in the 2nd and 3rd lost so going into the 5th, my original ticket of $192 that I did not play is live for like $4000 to $15000 some might have been even more and I am live to 7 horses, while of course in acutality I am dead. This is where the brutailty this game becomes obvious. Had I stuck with my original $192 play, guess what, one of the 2 horses I did not use wins the final leg at 17-1(nothing wrong with the horse per se, I just drew the line at 7 horses when I needed 8-you make these types of choices in race after race but in the pick 5's and pick 6's, when you make the wrong choice in the wrong race it can cost you 1000's or even tens of thousands of dollars). So at the end my decision ended up costing me zilch, but prior to the the last race I was one upset individual. The winning pick 5 I believe paid about $17000, but the problem is that whe you hit these things you knock the price down substantially. I assume that 2 hit it at $17,000 so a 3rd person hitting knocks the price down to $11,300. That is the good thing about 4 million dollar pools, you can hit for $17,000 and only knock down your ticket price a tiny amount, not $5700.

Last edited by Poindexter; 01-29-2018 at 01:47 PM.
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Old 01-29-2018, 01:50 PM   #69
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Fair enough...but the 11000 I have in my pocket from Saturdays score feels the same whether you give me credit or not...who would make something like that up?? and btw, I enjoy your posts and do recognize you as a fairly sharp player..
its all good man, my comment was just for fun stating that so many people hit it that I must be dense. Usually dont see that many people hitting the pick 6 at the same time.
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Old 01-29-2018, 02:21 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by RunDustyRun View Post
Fair enough...but the 11000 I have in my pocket from Saturdays score feels the same whether you give me credit or not...who would make something like that up?? and btw, I enjoy your posts and do recognize you as a fairly sharp player..
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Old 01-29-2018, 03:32 PM   #71
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Poindexter, you said above:

"Regarding it being hard or easy, it is simply numbers. 4 million was bet. That was 20 million combos played."

Your numbers are a little off.

Almost $20M was bet. That's 100M combos.

Last edited by Denny; 01-29-2018 at 03:40 PM.
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Old 01-29-2018, 03:34 PM   #72
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Yes...saturday's score..check the last post on page one for reference...but thanks for the beligerence...i enjoy others doing well...too bad some on this mb cant stand it...
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Old 01-29-2018, 03:37 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
Regarding it being hard or easy, it is simply numbers. 4 million was bet. That was 20 million combos played. Of the 20 million combos played, around 450 connected(I don't know the exact numbers or takeout). As mentioned beore it even started, the 2 in leg 4 was likely the horse singled the most, so he made it a lot easier.

The payoff was okay. The pick 5 paid $4000 and parlayed to the winner of the 7th made for the equivalent of a $24,000 payoff for 50 cents(of course they payout for 4 as well, so maybe a $26,000-$28,000 payoff for 50 cents which is about $11,000 for a 20 cent pick 6. Due to the reduced takeout on the pick 6 (carryover offset most of the take out) you had a little premium.

As just mentioned with a carryover and so much being bet the takeout washes out the carryover so the value is not in the carryover, it is in the reduced takeout and the nature of how players are playing. In the days leading up to the mandatory payout, a couple of the pick payoffs were very good(despite a ridiculous takeout), because so much money was being bet chasing the impossible longshots and trying to pull down a jackpot. On the mandatory payout day, the playing field shifted to a normal pick 6, but with so many people playing, you are going to see tilt on the heavy favorites(I got a kick out of Kurt Hoover asking Matt on TVG the strategy for playing the rainbow 6 as he doesn't play it-Hello Kurt-this was a regular pick 6 with carryover-the same kind you play 50 time a year at Santa Anita-you don't have to bet 20 cent tickets) The heavy chalks on the card were leg 3, who won, leg 4 who won and leg 5 that lost. With 2 of these 3 horses winning that killed any chance of getting a really good payout, because the key to pick sixes is singles. Most players single someone, somewhere, if not 2 or 3 horses and if they don't they likely are not going to find the longshot winners like we saw in the final leg. In a pick 6 it is typically inevitable that at least one price horse(oddball) pop up. If they dont, it pays squat and eveyone and their grandmother brings down the pick 6(as would have happened had the 8 had a clean break in the final leg).

There was a lot of discussion on whether the winner of the last warranted play. When you are spreading a race, doesn't matter. You use any horse that has any real chance of winning. If I line a race, I typically will take horses up to 30-1 my line. I didn't line the race, but not a chance I would have made him over 30-1 in the race.

The bottom line is, hitting pick 6's is not about finding all the winners typically, it is about managing to get them all on 1 ticket. You basically have to do everything right and after that a little lady luck doesn't hurt. The larger the budget the easier it is, the smaller the budget the tougher it is. Had I played my preferred approach which would have cost about $1200 bucks or so, I would have hit, but did not feel this card warranted that kind of play. So I played for a fraction of that and of course ended up with 5. That is sort of the nature of the beast.

Completely off topic but just to give an example of how crazy this game can be. Last night saw there was a carryover at Hawthorne. So I print out the pp's
handicap the card as fast as I can and with about 5 minutes to post, come up with a caveman ticket of $192(I don't even bet Hawthorne Harness). I don't want to put $192 into it. So I start reviewing, find a couple of horses I need to add, now I defintiely cannot play a caveman ticket because I am now at
2-4/3-5-6-8/1-2-3/3-4-5-6/1-3-4-6-7-8 which would have brought my caveman ticket up to $288. So I get cute and play needing my top choice in either the 2nd or 3rd (I have cost myself some nice scores doing this before, but that is the limitations of a budget-there are also plenty of times that you save yourself $144 and nothing becomes of either ticket or you hit anyways). Brought my cost down to $144 (not much different than the $192 ticket I started with). So you can guess most of the story, of course both of the top choices who were heavy chalks in the 2nd and 3rd lost so going into the 5th, my original ticket of $192 that I did not play is live for like $4000 to $15000 some might have been even more and I am live to 7 horses, while of course in acutality I am dead. This is where the brutailty this game becomes obvious. Had I stuck with my original $192 play, guess what, one of the 2 horses I did not use wins the final leg at 17-1(nothing wrong with the horse per se, I just drew the line at 7 horses when I needed 8-you make these types of choices in race after race but in the pick 5's and pick 6's, when you make the wrong choice in the wrong race it can cost you 1000's or even tens of thousands of dollars). So at the end my decision ended up costing me zilch, but prior to the the last race I was one upset individual. The winning pick 5 I believe paid about $17000, but the problem is that whe you hit these things you knock the price down substantially. I assume that 2 hit it at $17,000 so a 3rd person hitting knocks the price down to $11,300. That is the good thing about 4 million dollar pools, you can hit for $17,000 and only knock down your ticket price a tiny amount, not $5700.
looks like you know your way around a Pick 6
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Old 01-29-2018, 04:18 PM   #74
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Poindexter, you said above:

"Regarding it being hard or easy, it is simply numbers. 4 million was bet. That was 20 million combos played."

Your numbers are a little off.

Almost $20M was bet. That's 100M combos.

There were 1.6 million combos "alive" after the 1st race was over. Gulfstream put the number on display after each leg. At least that's what i wrote down.

You need to rework your example.
Sorry about that. Betting too many horses. Just not quite the right ones. I willl try doing this right

Strangely enough the chart is saying that 15,788,225 bet so I will go with number. I heard repeatedly that 20 million was bet so I guess they were including the carryover in that statement. 15.8 million bet 3.16 million retained for takeout(hana lists the takeout as 20%) 4.14 million carryover more than offset the take out for a net positive of roughly 1 million dollars on 15.8 million dollar bet. So about a 6.3% positive expectation on the bet. So basically 16.8 million was paid out in $15,566 increments to roughly 1080 winning tickets. So roughly 1080 out of close to 79 million combos wagered on hit.

Given the positive expectation pool and amount of public money, I would say the payoff was disappointing. But that leads back to 2 of the 3 heaviest chalks winning(the 2 that won also made the most sense the other that lost I have no idea why hes was odds on). Had one more of them lost you would have seen a lot more value in the payoff.
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Old 01-29-2018, 10:23 PM   #75
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Exactly! Stronach Group had a decision to make: pay off about 42,000 ticket holders, or make their large bettors whole. Guess which decision they made.

The race was a farce with the 8 and 9 taken out of the race.

ROFL - that is an insane interpretation.


For obviously there was no chance that 10,000 could hit it no matter the outcome of the finale.


Another conspiracy theorist bites the dust.
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