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Old 01-28-2018, 06:35 PM   #46
TMQ
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You are correct. Regardless if you throw out the turf races he shouldn't have been 35-1. But this is why I hate betting the cheapest of cheap horses, they aren't very reliable.
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Old 01-28-2018, 06:36 PM   #47
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Vic is the man!




The 8 would have likely won, had he broke from the gate.

9 was a closer who needed the pace to fall apart, but you never know...


5 had the 3rd highest TimeformUS early pace number. Last race he quit after a hot pace (a collapsing pace where the 12 Apollo made a premature move, and 15 Francois lumped up to win).
However, the 5 wasn't fast enough on paper to win this or survive the expected pace. His only positive was working through his conditions, but that comes with tougher competition.
using 2 singles and 'ALL' in the last race could be accomplished for around $150 or so. Even with hindsight, not sure if that was a smart ticket to add to your plays.

Had the 8 won, I'm pretty sure my ticket would not have returned the 1,200 that it cost.
It's a little bit of a mental barrier to get over, but you do still have to 'emphasize' the public's singles and re-punch a ticket or 3 with your selections and their singles. It's already an expensive ticket, so you get some cognitive dissonance there. I have a better feel for it now. Hopefully don't forget before the next 4M carryover.
I don't think it would have even paid over $1,000.
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Old 01-28-2018, 06:38 PM   #48
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Vic is the man!




The 8 would have likely won, had he broke from the gate.

9 was a closer who needed the pace to fall apart, but you never know...


5 had the 3rd highest TimeformUS early pace number. Last race he quit after a hot pace (a collapsing pace where the 12 Apollo made a premature move, and 15 Francois lumped up to win).
However, the 5 wasn't fast enough on paper to win this or survive the expected pace. His only positive was working through his conditions, but that comes with tougher competition.
using 2 singles and 'ALL' in the last race could be accomplished for around $150 or so. Even with hindsight, not sure if that was a smart ticket to add to your plays.

Had the 8 won, I'm pretty sure my ticket would not have returned the 1,200 that it cost.
It's a little bit of a mental barrier to get over, but you do still have to 'emphasize' the public's singles and re-punch a ticket or 3 with your selections and their singles. It's already an expensive ticket, so you get some cognitive dissonance there. I have a better feel for it now. Hopefully don't forget before the next 4M carryover.
The P5 was paying $340 for 50 cents with the 8. The winner of the 7th paid 11 so probably would have paid somewhere between $800 and $1600. I would have gladly taken.
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Old 01-28-2018, 06:39 PM   #49
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I disagree, the had won the same condition of race 2 out 3 times. Make that 3 of 4 now.
He hardly won the same condition, he won a non winners of 2 lifetime and 3 lifetime restricted claimer, this was an open claimer, huge difference.

It would like saying the Zia Park oaks and the Santa Anita Oaks are the same condition since the purse was the same and its for 3yo fillies.

He did have speed, and aired so yea, guess he wasnt impossible.
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Old 01-28-2018, 06:40 PM   #50
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There was 42,000 tickets going into the last race.
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Old 01-28-2018, 06:40 PM   #51
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I don't think it would have even paid over $1,000.
agree
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Old 01-28-2018, 06:47 PM   #52
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I don't think it would have even paid over $1,000.
We are on the same page here.

I was guessing maybe $250-$300. I respect RunForTheRoses estimate as well.


Was tough to attempt to build a ticket in the mindset of a pro. Have to do things like emphasize the singles and take some shots in potential chaos races. Can't really worry about the dollar amount before you've gone through different strategies. I know as a guy who feels $200 is a nice sized PICK 3 or 4, that going over $1k across 22 separate tickets was new territory. Hopefully I have a better feel for that now. Was fun to play along.
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Old 01-28-2018, 06:50 PM   #53
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4 of us went in on a $128 ticket chasing the huge carrover for a $.20 hit. We had the 1st 5, and alive to the #9 in the last, who threw the jock. So it goes - we went ALL in the wrong race. Aby Medina is good on the front end.
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Old 01-28-2018, 06:52 PM   #54
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I was alive with the with a ///// for $102.40
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Old 01-28-2018, 08:55 PM   #55
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Singled the #9 in the first leg???

Wonder how many more tickets he put in that we don't know about with different 'singles' in other races?

He could have 5 or more other tickets that lost.

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Old 01-28-2018, 09:08 PM   #56
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No will pays were posted before the race went off,was that intentional to hide the relatively low payoffs;many players who put in tickets with lots of permutations would've been disappointed in their return after all the hype/buildup leading up to the mandatory payout day.
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Old 01-28-2018, 09:09 PM   #57
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Singled the #9 in the first leg???

Wonder how many more tickets he put in that we don't know about with different 'singles' in other races?

He could have 5 or more other tickets that lost.
I am sure he did, I bet he put in between 1k to 2k if I was guessing.
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Old 01-28-2018, 09:10 PM   #58
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Singled the #9 in the first leg???

Wonder how many more tickets he put in that we don't know about with different 'singles' in other races?

He could have 5 or more other tickets that lost.
This is almost surely the case...maybe Vic can chime in here once again...
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Old 01-28-2018, 09:32 PM   #59
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It's easy to spend a lot more with multiple tickets.

Could even be more "all" tickets in other races.

That's how Borislow hit that big one a few years back. Spent 15k.

Not that anything's wrong with that. God bless him.

Just curious, that's all.
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Old 01-28-2018, 09:38 PM   #60
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Not to toot my own horn here but picking the in the last race wasn't out of the question and those crying foul need to suck it up. Nothing in that race was rigged. I myself had him on my ticket (the only one I played) that cost me $19.20! I'm proud to say I hit 5/6 and even played the 5 to win (so what if it was only for $2) haha.

It reminds me of the guy in another thread who so proudly proclaimed how he would swindle everyone that plays GP out of their money on mandatory payoff days withs $250 tickets filled with chalk. As a new horse bettor playing his first rainbow P6 I'm glad it wasn't a complete chalk fest as that would have turned me off from ever playing it again.

Again not to step on anyone's toes. My dad whom I was with had over $200 in his ticket and lost on the first leg. Just be glad you were alive to the last race and move forward
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