The Favorite Won?

[jay68802]

I have been tracking if the favorite won a race where I have chosen a longer priced horse. In races where I have wagered on my pick, the favorite has won .29% of those races. Does this mean I need to pay more attention to the favorite? Or since the favorite is winning about .34% of all races, am I doing a decent job of selecting vulnerable favorites?

[cj]

Originally Posted by jay68802

I have been tracking if the favorite won a race where I have chosen a longer priced horse. In races where I have wagered on my pick, the favorite has won .29% of those races. Does this mean I need to pay more attention to the favorite? Or since the favorite is winning about .34% of all races, am I doing a decent job of selecting vulnerable favorites?

That sounds pretty good to me, though it kind of depends on the odds of the favorites.

[davew]

Originally Posted by jay68802

I have been tracking if the favorite won a race where I have chosen a longer priced horse. In races where I have wagered on my pick, the favorite has won .29% of those races. Does this mean I need to pay more attention to the favorite? Or since the favorite is winning about .34% of all races, am I doing a decent job of selecting vulnerable favorites?

Are you betting every race? If not, what selection occurs before a bet?

[jay68802]

I might have 8-10 "selections" a day, but no, I will not end up not playing all of them.


Playing the selection is always a race time decision. I'm looking at track conditions, and post time odds for the most part. If my selection is the need the lead type and speed is dying on that day, why play it. there is another race coming up soon. If I am playing a horse that had a 12-1 morning line and the post time odds are 5-2, I will pass. What is a good bet at 12-1 is probably not a good bet at 5-2.

Another time I will not play a horse is if two horses in the race are bet down and have a combined odds of 5-2 or less. This might seem odd, but a lot of the time I did not see this happening when I first handicapped a race. And it means that I have overlooked something important.

[jay68802]

A example is the 8th at Aqueduct tomorrow. I like the at 12-1, but only if the conditions are right. A muddy or sloppy track is a must, and the odds have to be there also.