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Old 01-17-2018, 12:23 PM   #46
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I liked the Jags last week. This week? It is a terrible setup for them.

The Jaguar defense was on the field for 74 plays vs Buffalo, and 78 vs the Steelers, and they looked fatigued in the second half at Pittsburgh. Jax also has played games every weekend (11 weeks) since the start of November. The Patriots have had TWO byes in that time period. The Patriot defense, one of the league's worst in September, has showed very strong improvement since then. The Jags D has had a great year, but we started to see cracks in the loss at San Francisco and again last week. Then we have the issue of a Florida based team going into brutal cold not once, but twice in January.

I can't imagine a worse set up.
The pats will most likely go to the hurry up early and often .All things considered the jags may be gassed by the 4th quarter
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Old 01-17-2018, 08:00 PM   #47
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I liked the Jags last week. This week? It is a terrible setup for them.

The Jaguar defense was on the field for 74 plays vs Buffalo, and 78 vs the Steelers, and they looked fatigued in the second half at Pittsburgh. Jax also has played games every weekend (11 weeks) since the start of November. The Patriots have had TWO byes in that time period. The Patriot defense, one of the league's worst in September, has showed very strong improvement since then. The Jags D has had a great year, but we started to see cracks in the loss at San Francisco and again last week. Then we have the issue of a Florida based team going into brutal cold not once, but twice in January.

I can't imagine a worse set up.
Good info...Jax D exhausted

Any feel for the other game after Saints choke
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Old 01-18-2018, 12:02 PM   #48
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Good info...Jax D exhausted

Any feel for the other game after Saints choke
I think the Vikings are probably the better team, but it isn't a good spot. Huge emotional win last week and only a Nick Foles led Eagles team stands between them and a home game in the Super Bowl. A dome team having to play a cold weather game outside. I don't think its as bad for the Vikings because they LIVE in hellacious winters, but still quite different from the climate controlled noisy environment of their new stadium (TCF Bank I believe is the name?). Keenum certainly has the capability of imploding every bit as bad as Foles. At 3, I lean Eagles. At 3 1/2, definitely on them. At 2 1/2, I'd pass.

Just heard some interesting analysis this morning on VSIN. Evan Silva was on, and he claims the key to beating the Jags defense is avoid the 3 WR sets. Jax just destroys teams in 3 WR sets. But in all other situations, the QB rating allowed goes all the way up to 99. And New England loves to utilize multiple tight ends and throw to the RBs.

Last edited by Valuist; 01-18-2018 at 12:03 PM.
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Old 01-18-2018, 12:45 PM   #49
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Vikings - Eagles should really be a great game!

Both teams seem to believe they have something to prove and aren't 'respected'.

It's one of the few times I'm really and truly looking forward to watching a football game.
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Old 01-18-2018, 03:57 PM   #50
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I think the Vikings are probably the better team, but it isn't a good spot. Huge emotional win last week and only a Nick Foles led Eagles team stands between them and a home game in the Super Bowl. A dome team having to play a cold weather game outside. I don't think its as bad for the Vikings because they LIVE in hellacious winters, but still quite different from the climate controlled noisy environment of their new stadium (TCF Bank I believe is the name?). Keenum certainly has the capability of imploding every bit as bad as Foles. At 3, I lean Eagles. At 3 1/2, definitely on them. At 2 1/2, I'd pass.

Just heard some interesting analysis this morning on VSIN. Evan Silva was on, and he claims the key to beating the Jags defense is avoid the 3 WR sets. Jax just destroys teams in 3 WR sets. But in all other situations, the QB rating allowed goes all the way up to 99. And New England loves to utilize multiple tight ends and throw to the RBs.
Game time temps will be 51 degrees....
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Old 01-18-2018, 04:18 PM   #51
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They will try to stuff Fournette and force Bortles to beat them. The problem is their defense this year and their offensive line. They have had some good games but the better teams have torched them. If Fournette beats the edge a few times and can sustain first downs running the ball up the middle, they have a chance. Bortles is all over the map, very inconsistent. He has good games and awful ones, there is nothing in the middle. If this game rests on his arm making all the plays, its probably a rout. But if its played low scoring, dirty and ugly like the first round versus the Bills, they can win.

The other important aspect is the Jags defense. They must be flying on the line, you can't best Brady unless you press him. They gotta push the line early, that was gold vs Pittsburg, netting a fumble return for a TD. Trying to "sit back" in coverage vs. Brady is suicide, some teams never learn. Jacksonville started out good last week, but then they were awful on the later downs (3rd and 4th) as the game went on Big Ben got his legs under him and ripped them apart. That will be a recipe for disaster even if they have a lead this week.

Won't be betting this game. But I'm actually hoping New England wins. Because they most likely will be favored in the Super Bowl. Just watching how the teams played this year ( I re watch games) and the match ups. I don't think either of these teams can beat Philly or Minny. I don't see New England's offensive line holding off either of these defenses. They were in real trouble this year vs. the pass rushing teams. Carolina, KC and Miami had a field day playing that way and Brady was under fire. Cam Newton had a 137.5 QBR at New England and they were gone after the first round in the NFC. If Jacksonville somehow makes it, they will get points but they could be lucky to score 10 points against those teams. Jacksonville scored a total of 10 points against the Bills and their defense is no where near as good as these teams. I like Minnesota this week with the warm weather in Philly. If they win it will be interesting to see what the spread will be for the SB. Barring injuries I'll be betting who ever the NFC puts in there. I just think there was a real gap in quality this year, mostly of the defensive side. These teams are all copying Seattle and now its paying off in spades.
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Old 01-18-2018, 05:29 PM   #52
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Sharps just hit Jags at +8

Line down another notch to 7.5
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Old 01-18-2018, 05:32 PM   #53
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Sharps just hit Jags at +8

Line down another notch to 7.5
i just saw 7 1/2!
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Old 01-18-2018, 05:53 PM   #54
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Sharps just hit Jags at +8

Line down another notch to 7.5
The sharps bet Jax every week. Not only this year, but most of last year as well. They also rarely are on New England. Usually they are on who has the best net yard/play for vs yards/play against.
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Old 01-18-2018, 06:21 PM   #55
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i just saw 7 1/2!
You don't think Brady's hand had anything to do with that?
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Old 01-18-2018, 06:24 PM   #56
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You don't think Brady's hand had anything to do with that?
It probably does, but since 8 isn't a key number, I don't think a move from 8 to 7 1/2 is that big. A move from 7 1/2 to 7 WOULD be significant.
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Old 01-18-2018, 08:40 PM   #57
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For what it's worth .Brady didn't do any throwing again today.
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Old 01-18-2018, 09:00 PM   #58
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No worries. The Patriots have Brian Hoyer waiting in the wings.
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Old 01-18-2018, 11:03 PM   #59
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You don't think Brady's hand had anything to do with that?
probably, i was just watching the line. i have no idea about the backup quarterback either.
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Old 01-19-2018, 12:21 PM   #60
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probably, i was just watching the line. i have no idea about the backup quarterback either.
Hoyer's not a complete stiff, he's been in the league 8 years and started about 30 games, he has a 48-30 TD/INT ratio and an 86.8 qb rating.He'se another Gus Ferrotte/Jon Kitna/Matt Hasselbeck type, a backup who can be an adequate fill-in for short bursts and will be probably be holding the clipboard and wearing the baseball cap on the sidelines until he's 40.
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