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Old 01-15-2018, 12:33 PM   #31
Boris
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So I spent $300 on futures a few weeks ago, and I'm still alive to the Jags to win the AFC at 8-1 for $80. I thought it would give me a "free roll" to play a money line bet on the Pats in the AFC game. However, I didn't see this money line at Pats -400 to -500.

I don't see an effective way to use this as a hedge with the Pats in the AFC game. Thoughts? I'm tempted to put $100 on the Jags to win the Superbowl at 8-1 and just root for them.
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Old 01-15-2018, 01:45 PM   #32
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So I spent $300 on futures a few weeks ago, and I'm still alive to the Jags to win the AFC at 8-1 for $80. I thought it would give me a "free roll" to play a money line bet on the Pats in the AFC game. However, I didn't see this money line at Pats -400 to -500.

I don't see an effective way to use this as a hedge with the Pats in the AFC game. Thoughts? I'm tempted to put $100 on the Jags to win the Superbowl at 8-1 and just root for them.
I agree, probably not worth it to hedge in this situation. I don't think it's impossible for Jax. Coughlin has had the template to beat the Patriots in big games: rattle Brady with a fierce pass rush. Having said that, the list of QBs that the Jags have faced this year isn't the strongest. After Russell Wilson and Big Ben twice, the best QBs they've faced have been Jimmy G and Rivers. After that you have the Kizers, Stantons, TJ Yates and Tom Savages of the world.
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Old 01-16-2018, 01:12 PM   #33
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IMO...Jax+9 might be the best NFL bet of the year.
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Old 01-16-2018, 01:54 PM   #34
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IMO...Jax+9 might be the best NFL bet of the year.
Feeling the same way about the over 23 at halftime JAX vs NE. Either defense could kick in a score.
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Old 01-16-2018, 02:05 PM   #35
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IMO...Jax+9 might be the best NFL bet of the year.
i have it as one of the worst. but that is what makes a market
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Old 01-16-2018, 03:55 PM   #36
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IMO...Jax+9 might be the best NFL bet of the year.
I liked the Jags last week. This week? It is a terrible setup for them.

The Jaguar defense was on the field for 74 plays vs Buffalo, and 78 vs the Steelers, and they looked fatigued in the second half at Pittsburgh. Jax also has played games every weekend (11 weeks) since the start of November. The Patriots have had TWO byes in that time period. The Patriot defense, one of the league's worst in September, has showed very strong improvement since then. The Jags D has had a great year, but we started to see cracks in the loss at San Francisco and again last week. Then we have the issue of a Florida based team going into brutal cold not once, but twice in January.

I can't imagine a worse set up.
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Old 01-16-2018, 04:52 PM   #37
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I liked the Jags last week. This week? It is a terrible setup for them.

The Jaguar defense was on the field for 74 plays vs Buffalo, and 78 vs the Steelers, and they looked fatigued in the second half at Pittsburgh. Jax also has played games every weekend (11 weeks) since the start of November. The Patriots have had TWO byes in that time period. The Patriot defense, one of the league's worst in September, has showed very strong improvement since then. The Jags D has had a great year, but we started to see cracks in the loss at San Francisco and again last week. Then we have the issue of a Florida based team going into brutal cold not once, but twice in January.

I can't imagine a worse set up.
Yes, we saw cracks in the Jags D down the stretch...but the New England cracks that were exposed by Miami, where the final score was a lot closer than the game indicated, cannot be ignored...IMO. This isn't the intimidating Patriots team that we have gotten used to in recent years...and 9 points is WAY too much to give to this Jacksonville team.

I am even putting down a moderate bet on the Jags winning OUTRIGHT.
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Old 01-16-2018, 05:35 PM   #38
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Yes, we saw cracks in the Jags D down the stretch...but the New England cracks that were exposed by Miami, where the final score was a lot closer than the game indicated, cannot be ignored...IMO. This isn't the intimidating Patriots team that we have gotten used to in recent years...and 9 points is WAY too much to give to this Jacksonville team.

I am even putting down a moderate bet on the Jags winning OUTRIGHT.
you must hate money!
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Old 01-16-2018, 05:39 PM   #39
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Yes, we saw cracks in the Jags D down the stretch...but the New England cracks that were exposed by Miami, where the final score was a lot closer than the game indicated, cannot be ignored...IMO. This isn't the intimidating Patriots team that we have gotten used to in recent years...and 9 points is WAY too much to give to this Jacksonville team.

I am even putting down a moderate bet on the Jags winning OUTRIGHT.
The year to date defensive numbers for New England are deceptive. Just for points allowed: 128 points allowed in weeks 1-4. From weeks 5-17? Just 168 allowed. A dramatic turnaround. And as I mentioned earlier, a team with fresh legs while Jacksonville will be fighting fatigue.
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Old 01-16-2018, 06:07 PM   #40
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you must hate money!
With New England at -440 for this game...my decision is a foregone conclusion. And, at +9, the Jags are the bet of the year...IMO.
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Old 01-16-2018, 06:09 PM   #41
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The year to date defensive numbers for New England are deceptive. Just for points allowed: 128 points allowed in weeks 1-4. From weeks 5-17? Just 168 allowed. A dramatic turnaround. And as I mentioned earlier, a team with fresh legs while Jacksonville will be fighting fatigue.
If these points-allowed breakdowns were worth their salt...then I would have been a multi-millionaire two decades ago.
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Old 01-16-2018, 07:56 PM   #42
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Jaguars bullied the Steelers. Lots of aggressiveness. Full speed ahead, power blocking, occasionally power-misdirection offense, and gang tackling.

Patriots will use passing-misdirection on offense. Brady has the play-action(occasionally a fake reverse) and the look-away. They also have shown they are willing to go to a guy like TE Chris Hogan who seems like a 4th or 5th option.
If the Jags can maintain their discipline, and maintain their aggressiveness (and not be back on their heels), and aren't torched by a mismatch (like Gronk), they can slug it out with the Patriots offense. Maybe they can knock Brady out of the game?


I'm guessing the Patriots will play a 'disciplined' long game on defense, trying to force the Jaguars to string together consistent sustained drives. 'Disciplined', meaning that the backside of the play will be covered if the Jags try to do a naked bootleg off play-action, or if they try a block-and-release leak out with a back or TE or tackle eligible. If Bortles can somehow extend plays and make big throws, he'll torch the setup. The Patriots figure to bet against his ability to consistently convert 3rd downs, and/or light them up with big throws.
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Old 01-16-2018, 08:32 PM   #43
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Feeling the same way about the over 23 at halftime JAX vs NE. Either defense could kick in a score.
I agree with the over 23. The weather will be in the mid 40's and I am expecting some scoring.
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Old 01-17-2018, 10:01 AM   #44
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Bill Bellichek, and the prepared Patriots' defense will stymie the Jaguars and throttle Blake Bortles to win rather easily.

Rotten, ugly weather will be the 12th man on the field too for the Patriots.

The trash-talking Steelers and their very overrated head coach proved to be easy fodder for the Jags to defeat, regardless of those silly 'experts' on TV and the media that called for the unprepared Steelers to win and be a likely Super Bowl winner, of all things.
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Old 01-17-2018, 10:21 AM   #45
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the Pats don't have that great a team this year compared to the other years that they won the championship. they do have a great offensive line and quarterback, the defense doesn't exactly look like the fearsome foursome or purple people eaters. but the teams that remain in contention don't have quarterbacks at the helm like Joe Montana or John Elway either and the good parts of their teams have obvious holes in them that a great coaching staff won't overlook. i really can't see anyone running to the window's to throw their money away on Jacksonville because they are getting points. i wouldn't be going to the window on them either if i was getting 19!
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