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Old 01-23-2018, 12:33 AM   #31
reckless
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No point in trying to be the hero and call the top. It does look very bubbly, but as long as the charts are strong, can't fade it.
I know of someone on here that believes the market is actually undervalued.

We're entering into a strong and accelerated growth stage with very large and important companies leading the way. It just so happens that for many of them their stock price vs. their intrinsic value is so totally out of sync. Their businesses is way ahead of their stock price, for sure.

Wall Street estimates for earnings, sales, cash flow, and dividends are simply too low at this time, leading to much higher share prices in the future, starting right now.
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Old 01-23-2018, 02:03 AM   #32
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I know of someone on here that believes the market is actually undervalued.

We're entering into a strong and accelerated growth stage with very large and important companies leading the way. It just so happens that for many of them their stock price vs. their intrinsic value is so totally out of sync. Their businesses is way ahead of their stock price, for sure.

Wall Street estimates for earnings, sales, cash flow, and dividends are simply too low at this time, leading to much higher share prices in the future, starting right now.
I will let the charts make the determination whether or not stocks are overpriced. As of this point, they aren't.
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Old 01-23-2018, 04:09 AM   #33
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15 years ago 5% of the population of China was part of the middle class, today its 35%. the same type of changes is happening worldwide. throw in the fact that right now the world's population is growing by 20 million per quarter.

companies worldwide have been able to penetrate the population of the world with their goods and services in very efficient ways. the companies seem to be getting better at this as time goes by.


fundamentally and technically there is nothing to suggest that growth is near a top. so right now the only thing that will put an abrupt stop in this market are world disasters and wars.
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Old 01-23-2018, 08:44 AM   #34
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I will let the charts make the determination whether or not stocks are overpriced. As of this point, they aren't.
I understand that we all use different ways to determine our investments. Same with handicapping the horses -- there is no single road to riches. I am not knocking the chartists at all and I wasn't knocking you, especially since you said stocks are not overpriced.

But my question is why would one put their very own money on the line based on other people's opinions and investments?
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Old 01-23-2018, 01:11 PM   #35
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I understand that we all use different ways to determine our investments. Same with handicapping the horses -- there is no single road to riches. I am not knocking the chartists at all and I wasn't knocking you, especially since you said stocks are not overpriced.

But my question is why would one put their very own money on the line based on other people's opinions and investments?
No offense taken.

Are you referring to analysts? I would agree; I never put any stock (pun intended) in their opinions. They are always late to the party. Or are you referring to the charts? In the LONG run, price will be determined by fundamentals, but the charts lead the fundamentals. By the time earnings are released, its old news. We often see stocks sell off after strong earnings, without any negative guidance. The postives are already factored into the price. Word gets out. Insiders exploit. They try to get cute by hiding it in the options markets but those moves are seen as well.

I wasn't a believer in technical analysis until I got buried in 2002. I missed a decent amount of wreckage in the previous 2 years, and thought I was being clever by getting back in. Wrong move. I was a good year too early. The market hadn't fully consolidated in 2002. But like most things in life, we learn from our past mistakes.
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Old 01-23-2018, 02:51 PM   #36
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Sorry to say, while insiders can and do trade ahead, earnings OFTEN move the price in the direction of any surprise.

Too simplistic to say its all in the price. It isn't
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Old 01-24-2018, 12:56 PM   #37
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Sorry to say, while insiders can and do trade ahead, earnings OFTEN move the price in the direction of any surprise.

Too simplistic to say its all in the price. It isn't
I would say guidance is every bit as important, if not more, than earnings. We see countless companies exceed earnings, only to sell off as the post earnings call isn't 100% rosy.
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Old 01-24-2018, 03:09 PM   #38
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I would say guidance is every bit as important, if not more, than earnings. We see countless companies exceed earnings, only to sell off as the post earnings call isn't 100% rosy.
The market does seem to react more so to guidance than to actual operating results at times.

And because the market movers are not really investors but speculators, their action (reaction) to guidance often creates great buying opportunities.

Today is a case in point with two companies taking huge hits to their stock price primarily based on guidance, while the underlying business is still intact and growing.
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Old 02-13-2018, 12:55 PM   #39
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I am long Twitter and an educational software company called Instructure.
Sold my Twitter near its high last week - did ok. My INST got a big earnings beat pop today, so I'm happy.

I did rebuy some NVAX after taking profits on it - waiting for trial results soon.
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Old 02-13-2018, 02:01 PM   #40
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Nice trade. I use twitter heavily, but have always despised the way management ran the co.

Goes to prove you can't f&&& up a good thing forever
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Old 03-05-2018, 03:14 PM   #41
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On 7-17-17 I posted this in this Financial Markets room in a thread titled, Netflix:

Quote:
In fiscal year ending 2016 Netflix earned $20 in free cash flow.

As a point of comparison Netflix earned $10 in 2012, $12 in 2013, $14 in 2014 and $14.50 in 2015. It's been a money machine from jump street, and continues more so today.

If you buy Netflix now at $160, you are paying 8 times free cash flow (FCF). A great bargain for a great growing company. It's been a long term hold of mine for many years.

I have as my own estimate Netflix generating $23 FCF in 2018, and $25 in 2019.


At 8 times FCF, Netflix is worth about $185 in '18, and $200 in 2019.

At 10 times FCF, we're looking at $230 and $250, respectively.

I am told 15 times FCF is considered a 'fair' valuation for a public company. I have never in my adult life paid 15 times or more FCF for a company, btw.

So, at 15 times FCF, the 'fair' intrinsic value of Netflix is $300 right now; $345 next year and $375 in 2019.

One of the great bargains in today's market.
In less than eight months -- eight months!! -- here's the most recent Netflix price:

Netflix (NFLX)
$315.92
14.87 (4.94%)
Netflix, Inc. | NASDAQ
3:08 PM 3/5/18Bats BZX Real-Time Price

I expect PA-Mike to slap me down a bit or two, but it is quite possible that I have made more money for PA posters with my financial and stock market talk than all the handicapping software and information out there in history.

Last edited by reckless; 03-05-2018 at 03:15 PM.
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Old 03-06-2018, 07:30 AM   #42
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I'll say that you've JUST successfully CALLED the top for the market for awhile!....today 3/6/18...

Thinking the so called "Tariff" wars will put the brakes on for a bit...

Could be wrong...have been wrong before...will be wrong again...like ALL keyboard cowboys


Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless View Post
On 7-17-17 I posted this in this Financial Markets room in a thread titled, Netflix:



In less than eight months -- eight months!! -- here's the most recent Netflix price:

Netflix (NFLX)
$315.92
14.87 (4.94%)
Netflix, Inc. | NASDAQ
3:08 PM 3/5/18Bats BZX Real-Time Price

I expect PA-Mike to slap me down a bit or two, but it is quite possible that I have made more money for PA posters with my financial and stock market talk than all the handicapping software and information out there in history.
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just my 2 cents worth...1943 copper that is!
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Old 03-06-2018, 07:44 AM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless View Post
On 7-17-17 I posted this in this Financial Markets room in a thread titled, Netflix:



In less than eight months -- eight months!! -- here's the most recent Netflix price:

Netflix (NFLX)
$315.92
14.87 (4.94%)
Netflix, Inc. | NASDAQ
3:08 PM 3/5/18Bats BZX Real-Time Price

I expect PA-Mike to slap me down a bit or two, but it is quite possible that I have made more money for PA posters with my financial and stock market talk than all the handicapping software and information out there in history.
AND you've been here since 2002!

Why would I slap you down? I like cocky....until something like what happened to me the last three days...happens...
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Old 04-04-2018, 12:36 PM   #44
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Well, the result was declared official in Jan by me, so by inference a new race had begun.

Bulls took the lead, but folded like a cheap camera at the 3/8 pole.

Bears rejoiced.


PS The best stock in the world is threatening to lose that major support level of 1 cent again. So far the WSJ hasn't noticed.
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Old 05-21-2018, 10:38 AM   #45
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Well, the result was declared official in Jan by me, so by inference a new race had begun.

Bulls took the lead, but folded like a cheap camera at the 3/8 pole.

Bears rejoiced.


PS The best stock in the world is threatening to lose that major support level of 1 cent again. So far the WSJ hasn't noticed.
What stock was that Alton?? I somehow forgot to ask when you made that post.
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