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Old 12-28-2017, 12:03 PM   #91
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Seems to me that it wouldn't matter if you capped betting one minute to post, perception perhaps but you still wouldn't know what the final odds were when you bet, they would just change before the race went off. You would still complain that you didn't get the odds you thought you were getting etc. Maybe would just make you feel better that "probably" someone wasn't cheating but maybe not. That last second betting is still going to throw you off.


People betting the market pay a fortune to be nearer the market so their betting signal gets there faster. it is a never ending battle and not likely the racing people will spend tons of money to fix something that will probably not change things much.
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Old 12-28-2017, 01:22 PM   #92
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I would pay good money to be able to just cancel a bet 15 seconds into the race. That is one mighty powerful option that seems to be available in some form or another.
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Old 12-28-2017, 02:03 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
I was rushing at the end of my last post. Here is how the last 2 paragraphs should have read. Sorry about that.

To those who think that double probables and exacta probables are going to shed light on what a horse will go off at, perhaps you are right. If they do than it certainly isn't very hard for racing to provide that information to its fan base.

Horse, odds as 2nd leg in double, odds as first leg in double, odds on top in exacta, odds as 2nd horse in exacta........It would be a very easy for racing to provide that info for everyone and then we can see if it helps us gauge the likely price of a horse prior to the race going off. The whales have this info, why shouldn't the masses? Why do we have to set up our own spreadsheets to do this? Racing should want us spending time formulating bets not wasting our time pasting the probables onto a spreadsheet so we can get this information if we want it. It is just a feature that would help the fan make a more educated wager. If you bet a horse at 3-1 who shows as 8/5 in the 2nd leg of the double and 9/5 in the first leg of the double and 2-1 on top of the exacta, it would be sort of stupid to assume you will get 3-1 on him. But it is up to racing to provide this info to the horse player.
I don't think the exacta probables are any better of a gauge than the win pool is... what's to prevent those payouts from being slashed at the bell as well?

Regarding the double will pays, isn't this info widely available? If a player can't take a look at the will pays and get a reasonable read on the closing odds for a given horse then maybe they have no business in the pools in the first place...

To assume we can't deduce approximate win pool odds from the will pays is to admit there are consistent market ineffencincies, which I don't believe to be the case.
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Old 12-28-2017, 03:18 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by vegasone View Post
Seems to me that it wouldn't matter if you capped betting one minute to post, perception perhaps but you still wouldn't know what the final odds were when you bet, they would just change before the race went off. You would still complain that you didn't get the odds you thought you were getting etc. Maybe would just make you feel better that "probably" someone wasn't cheating but maybe not. That last second betting is still going to throw you off.


People betting the market pay a fortune to be nearer the market so their betting signal gets there faster. it is a never ending battle and not likely the racing people will spend tons of money to fix something that will probably not change things much.
One thing you could do is stop it at a random time between 0 and 2 minutes before post. Then the whales could never time it.
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Old 12-28-2017, 03:36 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
I don't think the exacta probables are any better of a gauge than the win pool is... what's to prevent those payouts from being slashed at the bell as well?

Yes, but that doesn't mean the extra information can't help you better gauge the projected odds of a horse.


Regarding the double will pays, isn't this info widely available? If a player can't take a look at the will pays and get a reasonable read on the closing odds for a given horse then maybe they have no business in the pools in the first place...

Yes if you take your stance that the only thing that matters is the incoming double pool. I think that the exacta probables and outgoing doubles play a part in the equation as well. Since they are ever changing, we hardly have time to recalculate them every minute and get in our bets in all of the pools. If this information was provided for us, it would take only a glance. Also newbies need to be educated. Most aren't going to realize that they can peek at the double pools to have an indication of what their horse might pay. Moreover they likely would not have a clue how to interpret the information. Racing has to build a business by educating it's patrons not snubbing them.

Right now I think the education they are getting is if there how wins they get paid 7/5 when they bet them at 2-1 or they lose. Hardly entices people to want to come back again.



To assume we can't deduce approximate win pool odds from the will pays is to admit there are consistent market ineffencincies, which I don't believe to be the case.

See above.

Last edited by Poindexter; 12-28-2017 at 03:37 PM.
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Old 12-28-2017, 04:03 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
It's not a case of updating the odds...it's a case of having all these simulcast sites sending in their wagers to the host track instantly...something that doesn't happen currently.

The host track can't update the odds if it doesn't have accurate pool info. And it can't have accurate pool info until all the money is in.

Therein lies the problem.
This is the problem exactly!
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Old 12-29-2017, 03:58 PM   #97
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
One thing you could do is stop it at a random time between 0 and 2 minutes before post. Then the whales could never time it.

Ok. Then the whales would be forced to bet at the 2 minute mark, but any time after that you don't know if you could get the bet in or not.

Maybe a better solution would be to prohibit computerized batch betting in the last 60 seconds. Don't know how you would enforce it though, since it happens at the ADW side.
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Old 12-29-2017, 04:15 PM   #98
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Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
....Regarding the double will pays, isn't this info widely available? If a player can't take a look at the will pays and get a reasonable read on the closing odds for a given horse then maybe they have no business in the pools in the first place...

To assume we can't deduce approximate win pool odds from the will pays is to admit there are consistent market inefficiencies, which I don't believe to be the case.
Wouldn't you expect market inefficiencies when the DD pools are typically (at SA) about 10% of the W-P-S pools? And a DD has 100 will-pays given fields of 10 in each race. Seems there would be many instances where DD payoffs would be skewed versus the win odds. But I agree that it is better than not knowing.
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Old 12-29-2017, 05:40 PM   #99
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Originally Posted by AltonKelsey View Post
Ok. Then the whales would be forced to bet at the 2 minute mark, but any time after that you don't know if you could get the bet in or not.

Maybe a better solution would be to prohibit computerized batch betting in the last 60 seconds. Don't know how you would enforce it though, since it happens at the ADW side.
You just need different cut offs for different sources. Technologically, it is easy. The problem is that that it would probably cost some handle and tracks wouldn't want to give that up.
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Old 12-30-2017, 12:05 AM   #100
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aw stoppit

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I believe it was CD that made a valiant attempt to close betting at post time. Not only did customers complain about being shut out, but the handle was noticeably impacted. Hard to ask a business to take steps that will reduce revenues.
Tony you said Churchill made a valiant effort to stop wagering at post time but went back to their old ways when betters compained? This strongly implies that they allow betting after the gates have opened. Barring any malfuntion, this does not happen. While on the subject which is complex, consider some things we at home could do to make ourselves sharply aware of how things work...and here's my suggestion!
1. If you are using an ADW, get the betting totals just as the gates are being loaded...keep it simple for now, just the win, place and show totals. A little searching on the ADW site and you can easily find these. Next, after the race is over, retake these same w-p-s totals. The difference,(roughly accurate depending on when the first totals are taken) should open your eyes. It should be a real eye-opener since up to now a lot of us think the last total won't be that much more that the first one.

ALL THE LATE MONEY, OR A HUGE PORTION OF IT, AT LEAST, IS FLUSHED INTO THE POOLS TOO LATE FOR US TO DO A THING ABOUT IT. Somewhere at a bush track, MOST OF THE MONEY BET, BY FAR, COMES FROM OFF-TRACK. Making that 'juicy' 3-1 shot you've worked so hard on, 6/5 or less.
Or not....perhaps your handicapping has failed you and the horse swings in the other direction. THAT HAS HAPPENED TO ME, IN NEARLY THE SAME RATIO. Also suprisingly, I win a few of these 'failures'

So, learn to trust yourself and things will come out in the wash, in the end. Except, please, and now I'm talking to you, Gulfstream Park, lets get my ponies to the gate on time. Every time. Its gotten so bad that if I am playing two tracks and one has a 5:30 post and GS Park has a 5:28 post I usually bet the 5:30 post before going to Gulfstream and betting there.
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Old 12-30-2017, 01:21 AM   #101
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
You just need different cut offs for different sources. Technologically, it is easy. The problem is that that it would probably cost some handle and tracks wouldn't want to give that up.
I wasn't thinking of shutting off the entire ADW, just the batch aspect. No way to prevent a big win bet, just the mass betting of exacta's and other exotics at the bell.

90% of the time , these bet downs were never going to go off at the 'teaser' price anyhow. These people that think they divined a 2-1 shot that goes to 1-1, have no clue.
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Old 12-31-2017, 06:02 PM   #102
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That doesn't surprise me. There are plenty of "regular horseplayers" who bet a decent amount but are not whales. Some post on this board.

If it was all whales, online bet shops like tvg and xpressbet wouldn't be successful, because whales go to rebate shops.
"If it was all whales, online bet shops like tvg and xpressbet wouldn't be successful, because whales go to rebate shops."
That is precisely my point..
Now let us suppose for a moment that all of the host tracks decided to add a fee that would make the rebates a wash. Did not NYRA do this? Add some kind of fee that made the rebates a lot less lucrative?
Just what would happen to handle? The whales and other larger volume bettors would eventually find other wagering opportunities. Handle would do what?
Increase? Decrease? Stay flat?
I believe overall handle would decrease at an alarmingly high percentage.
If the opposite were true, then why would the ADW's offer rebates in the first place? If the whales are not driving the bulk of the handle, why offer them a perk?
Notwithstanding the learned OP's input, no matter what he claims oto know, Unless someone can prove it, I think he's wrong.
Look, as a business owner, why would I offer a perk to anyone that contributes no more or no less to my bottom line?
I wouldn't.
Lets just say I sell turf irrigation equipment.
I have one large customer. That business is say a golf course. They are 25% of my revenue. The other 75% are small regular customers.
One day the golf course general manager shows up in my office. He asks me for a 5% discount off everything he buys.
Now, Do I say "no", negotiate the asking price downward, or do I cave and give him what he wants?
In my world, I tell him, let me sit on it.
After looking at the marketplace, I am one of two irrigation supply houses in the area. Otherwise, he must buy on line. The other company, 50 miles away, isn't going to drop his prices to anyone.
Can I do without the golf course? It would be tough, but i could have my accountant take care of it and I can market my company. Would the GM of that golf club take his business elsewhere? Maybe. Not probable..
I tell him there will be no discount on your first dollar. Spend X dollars and I will consider doing something.

Last edited by thespaah; 12-31-2017 at 06:03 PM.
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Old 12-31-2017, 06:32 PM   #103
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I would pay good money to be able to just cancel a bet 15 seconds into the race. That is one mighty powerful option that seems to be available in some form or another.
No way..That would be patently unjust.
When do we get to the point where we ultimately have to accept responsibility for our actions?
In what number of places do we draw the line in the sand until we get to the line in the sand?.....
Why 15 seconds? Why not make it at the top pf the stretch?
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Old 12-31-2017, 07:08 PM   #104
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thespaah:

To understand why rebates are the way they are, take a look at airlines. Airlines do a great job of selling the same flight to a leisure traveler for $150 and a business traveler for $650. You make maximum profits this way, and airlines, like racetracks, are a low margin business.

Rebates allow racetracks the ability to charge bettors who care about takeout less without doing general takeout reductions.

By the way, all businesses do a certain amount of this. For instance, supermarket coupons are a form of this- if you care about saving money, you clip the coupons. There is nothing disreputable about it.
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Old 12-31-2017, 07:27 PM   #105
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Originally Posted by vegasone View Post
Seems to me that it wouldn't matter if you capped betting one minute to post, perception perhaps but you still wouldn't know what the final odds were when you bet, they would just change before the race went off. You would still complain that you didn't get the odds you thought you were getting etc. Maybe would just make you feel better that "probably" someone wasn't cheating but maybe not. That last second betting is still going to throw you off.


People betting the market pay a fortune to be nearer the market so their betting signal gets there faster. it is a never ending battle and not likely the racing people will spend tons of money to fix something that will probably not change things much.
Changing odds are in integral part of pair-mutuel wagering.
No matter when the betting is closed, the odds may change before or shortly after the race begins.
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