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Old 12-27-2017, 02:07 PM   #76
alydar
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I think that Ian is spot on regarding the whole past post issue. I am convinced that there are very few instances where betting has taken place after the gates have opened. It does happen, but it is very unusual due to some malfunction, and not some common conspiracy.

I have believed for a long time that betting should be halted at a specific time. There could be a countdown clock that clearly told everyone when betting stops. This would help, but not cure the problem of large odd changes. At least bettors would know what the odds were prior to the start. I know how frustrating it is to see what you thought was a 5/2 bet come down to 3/5. That would still happen, but at least it would be before the race has started, which would at least make it appear more legitimate.

As far as whale betting goes, I think that the real percentage is somewhere between 25 and 30%. That percentage varies by track too.
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Old 12-27-2017, 02:40 PM   #77
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I don't think there are people betting after the bell, but I'm not convinced people aren't being allowed to cancel after the bell.
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Old 12-27-2017, 03:05 PM   #78
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there is AFTER THE BELL betting going on for sure in many harness tracks right now in 2017 and probably in 2018. The Red Mile has about 25 customers that only play the bell.`The Red Mile has live video feeds. Dover and Harrington have after the bell betting but only on their own product.

does it happen in Thoroughbreds? probably but i have no idea where it takes place so i am not so sure about it. it does not happen in any large onshore ADW at all. i don't have any idea about the offshore ones.

the only thing i know is that whenever money is on the line, there is always someone there trying to get it. if you know how to call the break, you can't lose.
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Old 12-27-2017, 03:22 PM   #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ian Meyers View Post
I won't say publicly what I think it is.

I am a consultant to both ADWs and large teams so I have a pretty good idea what's a realistic guess (because no one can say with 100% certainty) but there's no benefit to me discussing it publicly, other than to say 75% is much too high. It's significantly less than 50%.

That's all I'm going to say about it.
It's about 15%, and from a shockingly low number of whales.
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Old 12-27-2017, 07:03 PM   #80
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Pretty difficult to beat the computer syndicates when my system says i have value at 5/1 0 mtp and he loads at 4/1, enters the stretch at 3/1, and crosses the finish line at 2/1. Getting real difficult unless you only play large pools.
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Old 12-27-2017, 07:24 PM   #81
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Originally Posted by Fager Fan View Post
It's about 15%, and from a shockingly low number of whales.
If it is only 15% of mutual handle and the decision makers are letting this sport become practically unbettable to many to cater to a small group of bettors contiributing only 15% of the pools, then words cannot describe how empty headed the decision makers of this sport are and have been.

If the figure is indeed only 15%, they could eliminate rebates today and have a more successful sport in 2 years without even lowering takeout.

The figure has to be at least 30% and likely closer to 40%.
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Old 12-27-2017, 07:41 PM   #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
If it is only 15% of mutual handle and the decision makers are letting this sport become practically unbettable to many to cater to a small group of bettors contiributing only 15% of the pools, then words cannot describe how empty headed the decision makers of this sport are and have been.

If the figure is indeed only 15%, they could eliminate rebates today and have a more successful sport in 2 years without even lowering takeout.

The figure has to be at least 30% and likely closer to 40%.

I doubt it's only 15% . If that were the case, you wouldn't have the big influx of late money in all the pools. The average Joe is not waiting till the last flash to bet.

Not sure its as high as 40% though. My guess, 20-25 at the majors, maybe a bit higher, as they aren't just betting one horse, but spreading it around.
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Old 12-27-2017, 07:58 PM   #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
If it is only 15% of mutual handle and the decision makers are letting this sport become practically unbettable to many to cater to a small group of bettors contiributing only 15% of the pools, then words cannot describe how empty headed the decision makers of this sport are and have been.

If the figure is indeed only 15%, they could eliminate rebates today and have a more successful sport in 2 years without even lowering takeout.

The figure has to be at least 30% and likely closer to 40%.
I'm googling for the article I'd read that said 15-18%, but not found yet. I've found this one that says 20%+.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com...olume-players/
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Old 12-27-2017, 09:07 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by Fager Fan View Post
I'm googling for the article I'd read that said 15-18%, but not found yet. I've found this one that says 20%+.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com...olume-players/
Very good article you quoted. Especially like this excerpt

The numbers speak for themselves. In 2003, $15.1 billion was wagered on U.S. racing. Twelve years later in 2015, with the major high-volume teams pumping their millions into the pools, handle had fallen to $10.6 billion. And that is despite an infusion into the U.S. betting pools by the computer players that is estimated to be in the area of $2.5 billion annually. It is also important to consider that a track retains a lower commission from a bet from a huge player because of the rebate and other discounts involved than it does off of you and me.


So basically racing decision makers, because of stupidity, have tried catering to a tiny group of whales, who only contribute 20% of the current volume or thereabouts and managed to lose 30% of their handle over 12 years in the process. It has evolved to this at a time when anybody anywhere has a at the palm of their hand a tool to make a bet at any track, any time and anywhere. Should we even factor in the value of the dollar between 2003 and 2015?

Meanwhile, they twiddle their thumbs, horseplayers get more and more frustrated (the point of this thread) and continue dropping out. Those of us iwho continue playing the game have a hard time making any straight bet with any confidence because we just assume that the horse will drop in odds late whether he does or not(I have gotten to the point where if a horse is less than 6-1, I assume that the value that he appear to be as they are loading the gate likely will not remain after off with very few exceptions). IF he wins at an inflated price I pretty much have to deal with it.

You know there actually was a time that you could make a bet on a horse at 5/2 as they were loading the gate and 9/5 was about the lowest you would see in most circumstances(unless the 5/2 was ridiculously inflated). Now horses can go from 5/2 to 6/5 or 6-1 to 3-1 or 2-1 to 7/5 of 6/5 to 3/5 in just about every race. We can't take advantage of the fact that a horse should be 15-1 jumps form 15-1 to 30-1 because the race has already gone off when that odds change occurs. I personally am so close to just reverting to only pick 4's and pick 5's, I cannot tell you. The game is extremely fun when you have some idea of what your odds are going to be. But that just is not the reality in todays betting world. This sport has no chance of building itself up if people betting have no idea what odds they are going to get. The people that don't care are not likely going to provide any significant amount of long term handle.

To those show think that double probable and exacta probables are going to shed light on what a horse will go off at. If they do thanit certainly isn't very hard for racing to provide that information to its fan base.

Horse, odds as 2nd leg in double, odds as first leg in double, oddds on top in exacta, odds as 2nd horse in exacta........It would be a very easy for them to provide that info for everyone and then we can see if it helps. Why do we have to set up our own spreadsheets to do this. They should want us spending time formulating bets not wasting our time pasting the probable onto a spreadsheet.




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Old 12-27-2017, 09:07 PM   #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey View Post
I doubt it's only 15% . If that were the case, you wouldn't have the big influx of late money in all the pools. The average Joe is not waiting till the last flash to bet.

Not sure its as high as 40% though. My guess, 20-25 at the majors, maybe a bit higher, as they aren't just betting one horse, but spreading it around.
Not sll the late money is whales. Some of it is satellite betting sites with slow uplink, and even a bit of money bet at the last second on track.
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Old 12-27-2017, 09:57 PM   #86
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thanks for the clarification
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Old 12-27-2017, 10:32 PM   #87
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I was rushing at the end of my last post. Here is how the last 2 paragraphs should have read. Sorry about that.

To those who think that double probables and exacta probables are going to shed light on what a horse will go off at, perhaps you are right. If they do than it certainly isn't very hard for racing to provide that information to its fan base.

Horse, odds as 2nd leg in double, odds as first leg in double, odds on top in exacta, odds as 2nd horse in exacta........It would be a very easy for racing to provide that info for everyone and then we can see if it helps us gauge the likely price of a horse prior to the race going off. The whales have this info, why shouldn't the masses? Why do we have to set up our own spreadsheets to do this? Racing should want us spending time formulating bets not wasting our time pasting the probables onto a spreadsheet so we can get this information if we want it. It is just a feature that would help the fan make a more educated wager. If you bet a horse at 3-1 who shows as 8/5 in the 2nd leg of the double and 9/5 in the first leg of the double and 2-1 on top of the exacta, it would be sort of stupid to assume you will get 3-1 on him. But it is up to racing to provide this info to the horse player.
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Old 12-28-2017, 12:56 AM   #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
I was rushing at the end of my last post. Here is how the last 2 paragraphs should have read. Sorry about that.

To those who think that double probables and exacta probables are going to shed light on what a horse will go off at, perhaps you are right. If they do than it certainly isn't very hard for racing to provide that information to its fan base.

Horse, odds as 2nd leg in double, odds as first leg in double, odds on top in exacta, odds as 2nd horse in exacta........It would be a very easy for racing to provide that info for everyone and then we can see if it helps us gauge the likely price of a horse prior to the race going off. The whales have this info, why shouldn't the masses? Why do we have to set up our own spreadsheets to do this? Racing should want us spending time formulating bets not wasting our time pasting the probables onto a spreadsheet so we can get this information if we want it. It is just a feature that would help the fan make a more educated wager. If you bet a horse at 3-1 who shows as 8/5 in the 2nd leg of the double and 9/5 in the first leg of the double and 2-1 on top of the exacta, it would be sort of stupid to assume you will get 3-1 on him. But it is up to racing to provide this info to the horse player.
I think we established in an earlier thread that the whales do not get any exotic pool information other than what is available to everyone.
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Old 12-28-2017, 02:59 AM   #89
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I think we established in an earlier thread that the whales do not get any exotic pool information other than what is available to everyone.
You are misunderstanding my post.This isn't about info that has not hit the toteboard yet, this is about different ways of estimating how what a horse will go off at. Lets take the 6/5 number 6 horse. In the daily doubles the probables
are for $2
1-6 $12
2-6 $25
3-6 $13
4-6 $21
5-6 $45
6-6 $51
7-6 $99

To estimate how much the 6 is in leg 2 of the double you basically have to calculate how much it would have cost you to get back $100. So(i am just rounding in my head)
1-6 8.33333 x
2-6 4x
3-6 7.7x
4-6 4.8x
5-6 2.2 x
6-6 2 x
7-6 1 x

so to get back $100 we would have to play about 30 combos or $60. So essentially the horse was about a 2/3 shot in the doubles.

You can do the same with the double pools starting in this race, but of course the odds are constantly changing.

At the end of the day we have something like this at 1 minute to post.

#6 6/5, 2/3ddleg2, 4/5 ddleg1, 1-1 exacta on top.

Based off of this information the public now has a fairly good idea that they likely will not see 6/5 on this horse as a closing price.

The daily double leg 2 pool is closed so this never changes, but the other 3 pools are constantly updating. It would take very little for the racetracks to give patrons this extra information so they have a lot better idea what the horse likely will pay, assuming a couple of the posters above are correct.

We can do it ourselves, but to do so we have to design a spreadsheet and constantly paste the updated probables or know how to program the spreadsheet to update itself. But it is too much work for 99 out of 100 people amd it takes them away from doing what they should be doing-strategizing their betting.

All I am saying is that I assume whales take all this into account when projecting the final odds to make their betting decisions with the aid of their computers, so why not provide a helpful tool to help the public make more informed betting decisions since they are the victims of all these late odds changes.
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Old 12-28-2017, 08:15 AM   #90
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1. Others have paid me for those type of insights. It would be unfair to give away that research for free.

2. I never said it is the $2 bettor that is driving handle. It's no secret that it's not. Many causal fans have been driven out of the game. That's a problem now and will be a bigger problem going forward. I do believe that the change related to W2Gs is or should be a big positive influence to the casual player.

3. I'm not disputing a large % of CAW handle is made very late in the wagering cycle. It's not all of it though, despite what you may have heard. I also believe it's very important to differentiate wagers made late but before the gates open and those wagers that are past-posted. There are more than a few on this board (and others) that do not make that distinction and claim that there is a great deal of handle being past-posted. That is simply not the case.

4. As far as lines at the windows, 90% of handle now comes in from off-site. That's across all tracks. When you factor in higher on-track handle at SAR, KEE, DMR,etc it's probably like 91-92% for other tracks. Hence, no long lines at the windows. That time has come and gone.

5. I rarely post these days. Typically when I do it's to correct egregious misinformation. This game has enough problems. There's no reason for people to distort the truth to make it seem worse than it is. Again that's nothing personal. I'm sure you believe CAW handle is 3/4 of the total. Maybe you've read that here or elsewhere in cyberspace. I just didn't want anyone else seeing that figure and believing it too, or worse yet spreading that. CAW teams are not betting $7 billion a year. If there were a dozen large teams they'd each be betting on average $600 million a year. Is that what people really think? I can tell you there are zero teams betting $600mm a year into our pools let alone a dozen of them.
This right here
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