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Old 05-13-2018, 03:13 PM   #1
papillon
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GOAT creep

Since 2015, we have had 3 "the GOATs:"

American Pharoah

Arrogate

now Justify

I do not mean runners up on the GOAT list, I mean horses heradled as THE GOAT.

It is verboten to disagree with their GOAT status. Even after Arrogate began running decidedly unGOATishly, his GOATness was not challengeable.

I can't remeber such a period, even back in the 70s. Secretariat's being the GOAT has never been able to be challenged, but even at the time Slew's and Affirmed's statuses were challenged. There is still a sizeable "Alydar" was better crowd. Fager was never really granted GOAT status, some still insist Damascus was better. Sunday Silence was never labeled GOAT, and even here just recently the "Easy Goer was better argument" was advanced. Sunday was so dismissed he had to go to Japan. The Bid was never the GOAT. Kelso and John Henry were never the GOAT.

It has never been suggested that Gun Runner was the GOAT, and for the most part saying he was a better horse than the GOAT Arrogate will get you castigated. Chrome certainly has never been offered GOAT status. Nyquist who tied 5 historical precendents, which likely will never be do e again, was mocked and still is.

Most of those who insist tmost fervently that American Pharoah was the GOAT, insist with no irony that Arrogate was also the GOAT, and now do the same with Justify. Perhaps their hostility stems from cognitive dissonance?

Anywho, the GOAT is starting to become whatever horse that Santa Anita Baffert fan boy clocker, who keeps getting breeding kickbacks says they are. They also all have gaudy figs and either slow times or in Arrogate's case to have gone from a good horse to a great horse to a horse that couldn't beat Gunnevera in 13 months.

GOAT creep just struck me as funny...
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Old 05-13-2018, 03:20 PM   #2
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I've never heard any of these horses claimed to be anywhere close to GOAT type status. Anywhere.

Arrogate ran some top end races that will be remembered for years, but AP will never likely breach anybodies Top 10 list of any credibility, and Justify has only ran 4 races in his brief career.

Where are you hearing such talk?
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Old 05-13-2018, 03:32 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker View Post
I've never heard any of these horses claimed to be anywhere close to GOAT type status. Anywhere.

Arrogate ran some top end races that will be remembered for years, but AP will never likely breach anybodies Top 10 list of any credibility, and Justify has only ran 4 races in his brief career.

Where are you hearing such talk?
I know

Notice its never prefaced by any articles?

Arrogate though, his 4 race streak is as impressive a set of 4 races as I have seen, and after that Dubai race he was at the top of my list the last couple decades. Dubai seems to get him, but man he was really good. Dusted a horse like Gun Runner multiple times.

If Arrogate can lose the San Diego then Justify can lose the preakness, which would be a heck of a lot less shocking (foot bruise, quick turn around, etc).
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Old 05-14-2018, 01:48 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post

If Arrogate can lose the San Diego then Justify can lose the preakness, which would be a heck of a lot less shocking (foot bruise, quick turn around, etc).

Correct, Justify could just become another FuPeg, or even Barbaro.

Nobody knows just yet, as he sure didn't beat much in those early races.
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Old 05-17-2018, 03:32 PM   #5
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Coincidentally

Bloodhorse posted this article today, it is a 40yr old reprint:

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...s-triple-crown

I think one reason that horses were so rarely even mentioned in GOAT company was because it was based on the opinions of trainers and owners to a large extent, they'd compliment Slew, but they were pretty stingy after that. And the public debate was muted by the slow speed of communication.

I think what is happening now is largely a function of irrational exuberance and the Star of Bethelhem effect, and I don't think it is a coincidence that it all begins with the same trainer and the same clocker. I'm a transactions lawyer, there are no coincidences when money is involved.

Star of Bethlehem effect:

"Do you hear what I hear?" says the night wind trainer says to the baby lamb clocker. "Do you see what I see?" says the baby lamb clocker to the fig maker shepard boys. "Do you know what I know?" say the shepard boy fig makers to the mighty king internet echo chamber. "Listen to what I say" says the mighty king internet echo chamber to itself.

People had heard of American Pharoah, Arrogate, and Justify before they broke their maidens. They were heradled as phenoms after their MSWs, and GOATS after their first major races. People weren't even willing to say Slew was equal to Secretariat after he swept the TC undefeated.

We know Slew was a great horse because he raced against another TC winner. We know Affirmed was a great horse because he raced against another TC winner and Spectacular Bid. American Pharoah raced against Dortman, Frosted, and Keen Ice--there is not a hall of famer among them. I doubt you can string together 10 graded stakes wins from all combinec. Arrogate raced against 2 hall of famers, but a career of 4 great races and 3 meh-to-bad races does not great make. It is too soon for Justify, but he fits the Star of Bethlehem pattern, so much so that the lead story at Bloodhorse right now is how the skies parted and the sun came out to bless him while he trained today.

That is not organic. And it is why some people, a miniority apparently, are pretty cynical about it all.

GOAT: Greatest of All Time
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Old 05-17-2018, 04:01 PM   #6
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You don't even have to type the whole statement into Goolge

Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
I know

Notice its never prefaced by any articles?

Arrogate though, his 4 race streak is as impressive a set of 4 races as I have seen, and after that Dubai race he was at the top of my list the last couple decades. Dubai seems to get him, but man he was really good. Dusted a horse like Gun Runner multiple times.

If Arrogate can lose the San Diego then Justify can lose the preakness, which would be a heck of a lot less shocking (foot bruise, quick turn around, etc).
You want to play that game? I do nothing but research for a living, I can post article after article until PaceAdvantage and CJ ban me right along with LoneF.

The following searchs took me two and a half seconds.

In fact on Google, the second autofill choice for American Pharoah is "American Pharoah Greatest of All Time"


https://www.google.com/search?q=amer...obile&ie=UTF-8

Additionally, you can listen to the race calls of Justify's SA derby, American Pharoah's BCC, and Arrogate's DBW.

Caveat: Ok, you're right Arrogate has to share GOAT status with Man O'War. I am almost cetain I remember posts and threads here saying Arrogate was Man O'War right, right along with the DWC announcer, but it may have been Thorograph. You can find umpteen Justify may be the best, is going to be the best etc. throughout the TC forum here. Umpteen "Best I've ever seen and I'm olds" for all three. PaceAdvantage and/CJ over in the TC forum just jumped on someone who said American Pharoah wasn't all that.

Here's another:

https://www.google.com/search?q=arro...obile&ie=UTF-8

Bob Baffert himself said Arrogate was the best horse since Secretariat and that Justify is the equal of Arrogate, thus the co-best horse since Secretariat--before his KY Derby.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/h...507-story.html


http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/...210638054.html

Wanna know the difference between Bafferts 3 greatest horses ever, and Point Given, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, War Emblem...they aren't still at stud.

Do you guys not read what each other writes? Its not even allowed to say Justify is slow, or at least not fast. That's some pretty powerful dogma.
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Old 05-17-2018, 11:16 PM   #7
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You want to play that game? I do nothing but research for a living, I can post article after article until PaceAdvantage and CJ ban me right along with LoneF...

...PaceAdvantage and/CJ over in the TC forum just jumped on someone who said American Pharoah wasn't all that...

...Do you guys not read what each other writes? Its not even allowed to say Justify is slow, or at least not fast. That's some pretty powerful dogma.
Just a few things. First, I can't ban anyone here. I don't have that power. Never have and don't want it.

Second, who did I jump on about American Pharoah? I'm trying to figure out what that means. I honestly don't recall. I want to see what you consider jumping on someone

Third, you can pretty much say what you want around here within reason. But that doesn't mean when people make statements others can't give their opinions too.

What I find funny is the "Justify is slow" camp is still up and running apparently despite him dusting the field in the Derby after pressuring a very, very fast pace. But hey, everyone is entitled to an opinion and I hope they back them up at the windows. I know I do mine virtually every single day.
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Old 05-18-2018, 01:50 AM   #8
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Anywho, the GOAT is starting to become whatever horse that Santa Anita Baffert fan boy clocker
Yup, no bias here.

Maybe Justify runs very poorly, gets pulled, etc, on Saturday you can toast yourself with a drink, cmon here and have a good laugh at all the supposed fanboys.

Last edited by GMB@BP; 05-18-2018 at 01:54 AM.
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Old 05-18-2018, 06:36 AM   #9
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What's the big deal? The Europeans do this every year.

Regardless, Arrogate's Travers was one of the greatest performances of all time. He followed that up with there consecutive devastating wins.

For four races, there weren't very many horses who ever walked the earth that could beat him.

There were only three horses on dirt since the turn of the century that could compete with the legends of yesteryear: Arrogate, Rachel Alexandra and Ghostzapper.

All three were greats.
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Old 05-18-2018, 07:01 AM   #10
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What's the big deal? The Europeans do this every year.

Regardless, Arrogate's Travers was one of the greatest performances of all time. He followed that up with there consecutive devastating wins.

For four races, there weren't very many horses who ever walked the earth that could beat him.

There were only three horses on dirt since the turn of the century that could compete with the legends of yesteryear: Arrogate, Rachel Alexandra and Ghostzapper.

All three were greats.
Rachel only at 3, and the other 2 for only a few month span.

Compared to the greats of yesteryear who showed greatness over a far longer period of time.

At least Rachel and GZ were explicable why their terms were short or limited to a specific year's campaign. I put an asterisk beside every Baffert "great."
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Old 05-18-2018, 08:11 AM   #11
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The Greatest American racehorse of all time.

In this year of 2018.

There are still only 2 (and those two are interchangeable)

1. Man O war
1A. Secretariat


Justify??

LOL.

Allan
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Old 05-18-2018, 08:44 AM   #12
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The Greatest American racehorse of all time.

In this year of 2018.

There are still only 2 (and those two are interchangeable)

1. Man O war
1A. Secretariat


Justify??

LOL.

Allan
No one except the original poster said Justify was one of the greatest horses of all time. You're arguing against the breeze.
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Old 05-18-2018, 11:36 AM   #13
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No one except the original poster said Justify was one of the greatest horses of all time. You're arguing against the breeze.
Its a much better narrative though for the "see I told ya so" crowd.

No one is saying that about Justify, at least the professionals that I follow.

I have to say this so someone doesnt link a article from Mike Battaglia.
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Old 05-18-2018, 11:40 AM   #14
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All the GOAT's had long careers.
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Old 05-18-2018, 12:25 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by papillon View Post
You want to play that game? I do nothing but research for a living, I can post article after article until PaceAdvantage and CJ ban me right along with LoneF.

The following searchs took me two and a half seconds.

In fact on Google, the second autofill choice for American Pharoah is "American Pharoah Greatest of All Time"


https://www.google.com/search?q=amer...obile&ie=UTF-8

Additionally, you can listen to the race calls of Justify's SA derby, American Pharoah's BCC, and Arrogate's DBW.

Caveat: Ok, you're right Arrogate has to share GOAT status with Man O'War. I am almost cetain I remember posts and threads here saying Arrogate was Man O'War right, right along with the DWC announcer, but it may have been Thorograph. You can find umpteen Justify may be the best, is going to be the best etc. throughout the TC forum here. Umpteen "Best I've ever seen and I'm olds" for all three. PaceAdvantage and/CJ over in the TC forum just jumped on someone who said American Pharoah wasn't all that.

Here's another:

https://www.google.com/search?q=arro...obile&ie=UTF-8

Bob Baffert himself said Arrogate was the best horse since Secretariat and that Justify is the equal of Arrogate, thus the co-best horse since Secretariat--before his KY Derby.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/h...507-story.html


http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/...210638054.html

Wanna know the difference between Bafferts 3 greatest horses ever, and Point Given, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, War Emblem...they aren't still at stud.

Do you guys not read what each other writes? Its not even allowed to say Justify is slow, or at least not fast. That's some pretty powerful dogma.

I wouldn't worry about it. The people that actually win, need "fans" like this. I read a lot of it and realize why 90% of the people lose. How does any of that crap help a person handicap? People go on and on about this horse or that horse. I mean, WTF does GOAT really mean? Its fan boy talk.........there's one every year! According to some of the fanatics.

If one can't pick up the form and figure out who the chalk is in these races and if one doesn't know who these horses are what chance do they have at being a handicapper? Yet, people go on about them like they are giving valuable information. I mean, I admire these horses but i understand you are not going to make much hay with them....unless they lose. But somehow the media, the public touts and the fans think its a secret. Its like that in other sports too. I love betting the NFL, like I don't know Tom Brady is good.....everyone does.....but only the sophisticated gambler realizes you make your ROI when he loses. Some people never can get past the obvious and they are stuck on it. This week, its wow, they (the Cavs) have LeBron James. Why are they getting an ass beating??/lol..yeah, and their defense has stunk for 2 years but they play in a weak ass conference. The "GOAT" will get it done! Should I hold my breath on that?...

If one cant figure out who the chalk is and then see past that........one has no shot at betting. There was a paid "expert moron" on ESPN just now saying everyone defected from the Preakness because Justify is in..........Really? Like this has not been the norm for years now. Its the reason the drunk that owned California Chrome cried on TV after he lost the Belmont. They rest and come back now if they lose the derby. That's what people do now....they lose and skip. But this year its out of "fear".??????? Its a riot! Arrogate was good, Pharoah was good but it makes you squat at the windows.....and furthermore, its hard to compare these 4 and 5 race wonders to horses that won 20 to 30 starts.

I wouldn't get all worked up about it, its meaningless, hilarious and never gets it done at the windows.

Excuse me now, I have to read why Bolt D' Oro is the best thing since Real Quiet because he ran a 103.....whatever the hell that means.......he actually won nothing!
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