Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 12-11-2017, 12:39 PM   #16
thaskalos
"Awake!"
 
thaskalos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 20,258
Rep Power: 40 thaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to behold
A New York-based handicapper whom I had never heard of before published a handicapping book in 2002. He titled the book "BLINKERS OFF"...and I quickly bought it because I thought it would be about the favorite handicapping angle of a close friend of mine. Alas...the book proved to be just an expensive "advertisement" for the author's newly-formed website "Equiform"...which sold a set of speed and pace figures called "The XTRAS". Since the book seemed utterly worthless to anyone who wasn't an Equiform customer...I tossed it aside and never touched it again for another 15 years.

In April of this year...I became a subscriber to the speed and pace figures of Jim Cramer, of HDW fame. The more I read about Jim Cramer's figures...the more they seemed to resemble those figures called "The XTRAS", in that long-forgotten book of 15 years ago. I quickly retrieved that book from the "forgotten pile"...and read it again, with Jim Cramer's HDW figures as an accompaniment. It was an eye-opening experience that will forever influence my handicapping from now on...and I mention this in this thread because horses such as the one featured here will never again be ignored by the handicapper who remembers the wise words of Cary Fotias...the author of the aforementioned book "Blinkers Off". And NO...one needn't be a HDW customer in order to utilize Fotias's handicapping ideas. Cj's speed and pace figures will do just as well, I am sure.

Sadly...Cary Fotias passed away at the young age of 60, in 2013. I owe him a debt of gratitude...and you will too, if you read his handicapping book and heed his advice...as an accompaniment to your speed/pace handicapping.

https://www.amazon.com/Blinkers-off-...s=blinkers+off
__________________
"It frustrates me to be wrong when I know I'm right."
-- Moliere
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2017, 03:34 PM   #17
AskinHaskin
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 197
Rep Power: 0 AskinHaskin is infamous around these parts
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover View Post
It is this kind of results that are chasing people out of the game.


This donkey ran against the same horses only 14 days ago finished 20+ lengths behind the at 33-1 and 15+ lengths from the . Two weeks later and with no public workout and no other kind of excuse, the situation was turned upside down costing thousand dollars to the majority of the naive bettors who keep on risking their money in a game that is so fraud friendly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover View Post
Nothing personal of course but this kind of transformation, especially within such a limited timespan is certainly suspicious as it generates the loss of huge amounts of betting dollars with the unpredicted outcome. It would had been different if there was some legitimate excuse for the recent bad race or a lengthy enough layoff that would have made it possible for the trainer to reverse the form of the horse; without any of these though, this racing behavior is really bad for the reputation of the sport which for its survival relies on the betting dollar.


That is clueless thinking.

Forgetting about the fact that every race costs "thousands of dollars to the majority of the naive bettors", the horse in question was a lightly-raced horse with early speed who was trying a different course for the first time after dueling head to head from the inside of a heavy favorite last out.


What is really baffling is your lack of understanding of parimutuel wagering where "the loss of huge amounts of betting dollars with... unpredicted outcome" is a constant, on every race you see.

But in this particular arena, I guess it should come as little surprise that some readers cannot grasp the unique realities of parimutuel wagering.
AskinHaskin is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2017, 03:49 PM   #18
Tom
Registered User
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 84,201
Rep Power: 109 Tom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to behold
The reality of racing is that horses like this one do win, and ore placen and more show, and a lot of them fill out supers.

If your model is not picking them, then maybe your model needs to be upgraded.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2017, 03:52 PM   #19
DeltaLover
Registered user
 
DeltaLover's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,386
Rep Power: 15 DeltaLover will become famous soon enoughDeltaLover will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by AskinHaskin View Post
That is clueless thinking.

Forgetting about the fact that every race costs "thousands of dollars to the majority of the naive bettors", the horse in question was a lightly-raced horse with early speed who was trying a different course for the first time after dueling head to head from the inside of a heavy favorite last out.


What is really baffling is your lack of understanding of parimutuel wagering where "the loss of huge amounts of betting dollars with... unpredicted outcome" is a constant, on every race you see.

But in this particular arena, I guess it should come as little surprise that some readers cannot grasp the unique realities of parimutuel wagering.
I am sure you understand it better
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
DeltaLover is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2017, 03:54 PM   #20
DeltaLover
Registered user
 
DeltaLover's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,386
Rep Power: 15 DeltaLover will become famous soon enoughDeltaLover will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
The reality of racing is that horses like this one do win, and ore placen and more show, and a lot of them fill out supers.

If your model is not picking them, then maybe your model needs to be upgraded.
You mean that yours (or anybody else's) "upgraded model" can pick this type of horses? Do you have any concrete evidence or we simply have to believe so?
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
DeltaLover is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2017, 04:08 PM   #21
AltonKelsey
Registered User
 
AltonKelsey's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,111
Rep Power: 4 AltonKelsey will become famous soon enough
A horse that would go off at 30-1 in NY can go off 100-1 in Fla. Just the way it is.

Looked at the pp's.

Angles older than Ray Taulbots mother.

Last edited by AltonKelsey; 12-11-2017 at 04:10 PM.
AltonKelsey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2017, 04:41 PM   #22
Exotic1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,080
Rep Power: 14 Exotic1 is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
A New York-based handicapper whom I had never heard of before published a handicapping book in 2002. He titled the book "BLINKERS OFF"...and I quickly bought it because I thought it would be about the favorite handicapping angle of a close friend of mine. Alas...the book proved to be just an expensive "advertisement" for the author's newly-formed website "Equiform"...which sold a set of speed and pace figures called "The XTRAS". Since the book seemed utterly worthless to anyone who wasn't an Equiform customer...I tossed it aside and never touched it again for another 15 years.

In April of this year...I became a subscriber to the speed and pace figures of Jim Cramer, of HDW fame. The more I read about Jim Cramer's figures...the more they seemed to resemble those figures called "The XTRAS", in that long-forgotten book of 15 years ago. I quickly retrieved that book from the "forgotten pile"...and read it again, with Jim Cramer's HDW figures as an accompaniment. It was an eye-opening experience that will forever influence my handicapping from now on...and I mention this in this thread because horses such as the one featured here will never again be ignored by the handicapper who remembers the wise words of Cary Fotias...the author of the aforementioned book "Blinkers Off". And NO...one needn't be a HDW customer in order to utilize Fotias's handicapping ideas. Cj's speed and pace figures will do just as well, I am sure.

Sadly...Cary Fotias passed away at the young age of 60, in 2013. I owe him a debt of gratitude...and you will too, if you read his handicapping book and heed his advice...as an accompaniment to your speed/pace handicapping.

https://www.amazon.com/Blinkers-off-...s=blinkers+off
It's coming into focus now. And yours (above) is an excellent post.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...6&postcount=33


http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...7&postcount=49
Exotic1 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2017, 05:06 PM   #23
Exotic1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,080
Rep Power: 14 Exotic1 is on a distinguished road
I knew there was more..

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...&postcount=101

GameTheory had it right all along....

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...&postcount=102

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...&postcount=103
Exotic1 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2017, 06:01 PM   #24
onefast99
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: NJ
Posts: 5,778
Rep Power: 16 onefast99 will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
One - congrats, man!

Thank you sir. 3 weeks and she gets another crack.
__________________
Monmouth Park...keep racing in NJ!
onefast99 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2017, 06:28 PM   #25
Tom
Registered User
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 84,201
Rep Power: 109 Tom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to behold
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover View Post
You mean that yours (or anybody else's) "upgraded model" can pick this type of horses? Do you have any concrete evidence or we simply have to believe so?

Well, in this thread, posts # 9,10,11,13 for starters.
Looking at HTR for this race, horse was listed as third in the positives for improvement, it was ranked #1 on FR1 and EP after showing greatly improved early speed and posting new pace top (Blinker Off) last out.
In only its fourth career start, the second of which had trouble, the horse was going int he right direction. On their tournament program, which suggest good bets for tourney play, it was picked as a pace play for that race.

And it placed to the big favorite.
Isn't that what you want to put in the place hole to make this a playable race?

Attached Images
File Type: jpg ScreenShot2147.jpg (84.3 KB, 24 views)
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-11-2017, 06:29 PM   #26
Tom
Registered User
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 84,201
Rep Power: 109 Tom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to behold
Quote:
Originally Posted by onefast99 View Post
Thank you sir. 3 weeks and she gets another crack.
Shhhhhhhhh!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-12-2017, 12:03 AM   #27
JustRalph
Disgruntled Horseplayer
 
JustRalph's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 40,711
Rep Power: 62 JustRalph is a glorious beacon of lightJustRalph is a glorious beacon of lightJustRalph is a glorious beacon of lightJustRalph is a glorious beacon of lightJustRalph is a glorious beacon of lightJustRalph is a glorious beacon of light
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
I wasn't betting Sunday, so this isn't some kind of redboard or anything. Good chance I don't bet this horse even if I was. But this kind of result is the reason I play the game, not the kind to drive me away. There were certainly signs the horse was improving.
I would surmise that is a product of the way the game has evolved. I bet 15 years ago you might have passed he race

I only play a 3-5 times a year now, but I find myself doing nothing anymore but looking for huge prices. Where I used to be happy with a nice 5 to 1 or so, a couple times a day, not anymore. If Iím playing Iím winging it now. Itís the only way to have any real fun
__________________
SHUT UP AND BET!
JustRalph is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-12-2017, 06:56 AM   #28
lamboguy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 18,088
Rep Power: 30 lamboguy will become famous soon enoughlamboguy will become famous soon enough
there are a few good ways to find prices in this game. one of them that i have found is handicapping a race and finding 3 or 4 contenders in the race that i can't separate too much by methods of handicapping. most of the time i would just pass the race and go on to the next race. but after all these years i have figured out that these are the best races to play. i just bet the horse that has the longest price at bigger tracks. i have kept track of those plays and it brings me back $.96 before the rebate. it is actually not too bad. the only problem is i have been betting those selections for only $10 or $20 per race and don't know how i would do if i was playing $100 or $200 per race. that is the part that makes this game tough now. if you are going to the mutual windows and betting enough to lower your price, you will automatically lose.
lamboguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-12-2017, 01:17 PM   #29
CincyHorseplayer
Registered User
 
CincyHorseplayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,203
Rep Power: 18 CincyHorseplayer is a jewel in the roughCincyHorseplayer is a jewel in the roughCincyHorseplayer is a jewel in the rough
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
A New York-based handicapper whom I had never heard of before published a handicapping book in 2002. He titled the book "BLINKERS OFF"...and I quickly bought it because I thought it would be about the favorite handicapping angle of a close friend of mine. Alas...the book proved to be just an expensive "advertisement" for the author's newly-formed website "Equiform"...which sold a set of speed and pace figures called "The XTRAS". Since the book seemed utterly worthless to anyone who wasn't an Equiform customer...I tossed it aside and never touched it again for another 15 years.

In April of this year...I became a subscriber to the speed and pace figures of Jim Cramer, of HDW fame. The more I read about Jim Cramer's figures...the more they seemed to resemble those figures called "The XTRAS", in that long-forgotten book of 15 years ago. I quickly retrieved that book from the "forgotten pile"...and read it again, with Jim Cramer's HDW figures as an accompaniment. It was an eye-opening experience that will forever influence my handicapping from now on...and I mention this in this thread because horses such as the one featured here will never again be ignored by the handicapper who remembers the wise words of Cary Fotias...the author of the aforementioned book "Blinkers Off". And NO...one needn't be a HDW customer in order to utilize Fotias's handicapping ideas. Cj's speed and pace figures will do just as well, I am sure.

Sadly...Cary Fotias passed away at the young age of 60, in 2013. I owe him a debt of gratitude...and you will too, if you read his handicapping book and heed his advice...as an accompaniment to your speed/pace handicapping.

https://www.amazon.com/Blinkers-off-...s=blinkers+off
I made these same connections in 2012. Along with a healthy influence of Sartin and Co but with my own thoughts on ratings and a dose of Pizzola, things have been a completely better reality since. We think in similar circles my friend!
CincyHorseplayer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-13-2017, 07:02 PM   #30
onefast99
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: NJ
Posts: 5,778
Rep Power: 16 onefast99 will become famous soon enough
For those that asked about proper princess in the 2nd today at GP another nice second at 10/1...she is one game little lady.
__________________
Monmouth Park...keep racing in NJ!
onefast99 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Do you bet Justify to win/single on Belmont day or do you spread?
Yes, he's a single and wins Triple Crown. - 18.64%
11 Votes
No, I'm gonna use him but spread - 33.90%
20 Votes
Toss - 42.37%
25 Votes
Doesn't run - 5.08%
3 Votes
Total Votes: 59
Non-members may not vote on this poll.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:13 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.