Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 12-09-2017, 05:26 PM   #1
JohnGalt1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,015
Rep Power: 16 JohnGalt1 is on a distinguished road
How do you value workouts after layoffs?

One thing I hate is having a horse with no or short 3f workouts beat me.

I want a horse off a month or longer to show some workouts to let me know it is fit.

A bad/slow horse that I would not play, with no workouts I can take since even with workouts I would not play it.

I know many workouts are not listed, some work on a farm.

My question3--

If you like a horse off a layoff with no workouts, do you play him?

Do you play it with your second and/or third choice.

Ignore it, And play it as a prime bet?

Put in a double or pick 3, just in case it runs to it's pps?

Thanks.
JohnGalt1 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-09-2017, 06:50 PM   #2
therussmeister
superfecta grinder
 
therussmeister's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 1,942
Rep Power: 11 therussmeister has a spectacular aura abouttherussmeister has a spectacular aura about
I don't mind a horse showing only short works if it hasn't races in two months.

For a longer layoff I almost always bet against them and accept the fact they will occasionally beat me. I do keep in mind how often I have seen the trainer win with these types, but even then I would rather pass than bet these horses.

I think the crowd puts too much emphasis on trainer statistics with little regard for how a trainer prepares his layoff winners, so I feel these types of winning horses are virtually always underlays.
__________________
"Kindly let me help you or you will drown," said the monkey putting the fish safely up a tree.

Alan Watts
therussmeister is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-09-2017, 08:44 PM   #3
dlivery
Registered User
 
dlivery's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 142
Rep Power: 0 dlivery is an unknown quantity at this point
Last Race should with be with in 90 Days

How are the work outs for the return and the horses past performance with lay offs from a INJURY

Why lay a horse off?
dlivery is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-09-2017, 09:04 PM   #4
thaskalos
"Awake!"
 
thaskalos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 20,471
Rep Power: 40 thaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to behold
I couldn't care less what a particular trainer's overall layoff stats are; I want to know what his training regimen is with each individual horse in his care. When assessing the winning chances of a particular laid-off horse...I look at how this horse has been campaigned by the trainer in the past, and whether or not the trainer likes to "fire fresh" with this particular horse. Lifetime past-performances are handy in this regard...because the needed proof is often beyond the readily-available PPs.

Just because a trainer has impressive layoff stats doesn't mean that he tries to win "first-off-a-layoff" with every horse in his care.
__________________
My whole body cries out against the inhumanity of regular employment.

Last edited by thaskalos; 12-09-2017 at 09:12 PM.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-10-2017, 07:27 AM   #5
biggestal99
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 1,468
Rep Power: 7 biggestal99 has a spectacular aura aboutbiggestal99 has a spectacular aura about
My way of doing it is that if a horse off a layoff ran well previously off
a layoff I can ignore the work tab entirely.

Allan
biggestal99 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-10-2017, 12:09 PM   #6
JohnGalt1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,015
Rep Power: 16 JohnGalt1 is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99 View Post
My way of doing it is that if a horse off a layoff ran well previously off
a layoff I can ignore the work tab entirely.

Allan
I look at this too. But the good race off a lay off might have come from having a series of 4-5 f workouts, but today no workouts.

Different situation.

The guessing game causes me to pass many races I would play if I knew the condition of the horse.

As Thaskalos wrote, some good trainers doesn't try to win every time.
JohnGalt1 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-10-2017, 12:48 PM   #7
MPRanger
Registered User
 
MPRanger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Texas
Posts: 240
Rep Power: 8 MPRanger is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnGalt1 View Post
One thing I hate is having a horse with no or short 3f workouts beat me.



If you like a horse off a layoff with no workouts, do you play him?

Do you play it with your second and/or third choice.

Ignore it, And play it as a prime bet?

Put in a double or pick 3, just in case it runs to it's pps?

Thanks.

Horses have to show a workout after a layoff.
The question should not be "is he fit?" but " how much is he paying?"
Then, "is that worth a risk/bet?"

If he's paying 8 to 5 then it may not be worth a bet. If he's paying 8 to 1, that may be different.
__________________
So sayeth the Ranger....
MPRanger is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-10-2017, 03:43 PM   #8
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 16,880
Rep Power: 29 Robert Fischer will become famous soon enoughRobert Fischer will become famous soon enough
I value the price more than the workout stuff in these scenarios.

If I'm playing a guessing game, I want an even bigger value edge than usual.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-12-2017, 12:49 PM   #9
ultracapper
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,764
Rep Power: 7 ultracapper is on a distinguished road
Big key is determiming why the layoff. What was the trainer trying to accomplish with the layoff? Freshening? Healing? Additional education? Start there, then determine whether the layoff was a strategy to get the best out of the horse in the first start back. WOs can give you a hint what the purpose of the layoff was. No works is a huge red flag, IMO, regardless of what the reason for the layoff was.
ultracapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-12-2017, 06:24 PM   #10
JohnGalt1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,015
Rep Power: 16 JohnGalt1 is on a distinguished road
I'm handicapping FG Thursday 9/14 and found a perfect example of why I started this thread.

Race one--#8 Diva's Ransom 7-2 ML

Last raced Oct 21

Last workout Feb 12

Trainer is 4 for 38 this year.

3 for 11 27% 46-90 day layoff

When I handicap a layoff horse I use the best/fastest/most representative race for a pace line.

July 5, off since may 19, she won 5f at Evd in 58.3.

That race she also won off a lay off since he last race was Feb 12 for that race.

I believe fillies and mares usually cab race well with fewer and or shorter works, but id do not trust it.

I am passing the race.
JohnGalt1 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-12-2017, 07:25 PM   #11
dlivery
Registered User
 
dlivery's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 142
Rep Power: 0 dlivery is an unknown quantity at this point
Good Choice

Pass The Race

Nice

I like your thinking

Have you a preference of the pace line you can excuse beyond looking past the last line.


Im just asking

dlivery
dlivery is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-12-2017, 07:34 PM   #12
Whosonfirst
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: USA
Posts: 815
Rep Power: 10 Whosonfirst will become famous soon enoughWhosonfirst will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnGalt1 View Post
I'm handicapping FG Thursday 9/14 and found a perfect example of why I started this thread.

Race one--#8 Diva's Ransom 7-2 ML

Last raced Oct 21

Last workout Feb 12

Trainer is 4 for 38 this year.

3 for 11 27% 46-90 day layoff

When I handicap a layoff horse I use the best/fastest/most representative race for a pace line.

July 5, off since may 19, she won 5f at Evd in 58.3.

That race she also won off a lay off since he last race was Feb 12 for that race.

I believe fillies and mares usually cab race well with fewer and or shorter works, but id do not trust it.

I am passing the race.
I'd have no problem tossing the 8. She hasn't hit the board in 5 races at this distance. Six other horses in this race have won or placed at 6f. When she won after a layoff at 5f, she was dropping from 10000 to 5000 State Bred races. If she beats me, hats off to her trainer, and move on.
__________________
Predicting the outcome of a horse race is an activity that exerts continuing appeal to the extraordinarily opulent. It is intellectually lucrative albeit fiscally ruinous.-Richard Epstein
Whosonfirst is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-12-2017, 07:40 PM   #13
dlivery
Registered User
 
dlivery's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 142
Rep Power: 0 dlivery is an unknown quantity at this point
How far are the lines apart

Im asking this because I believe you only have a last race performance to deter-mind when to give the line a + Plus or - Minus and move on
dlivery is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-12-2017, 08:22 PM   #14
JohnGalt1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,015
Rep Power: 16 JohnGalt1 is on a distinguished road
Michael Pizolla in his books advises to always use the most recent race--------unless you shouldn't.

If a horse has a recent race--I used to use 28 days, now 35 (thank you trainers who don't run their horses,) I always make a pace/speed rating.

I will use pace lines further down if there is a great, or two good reasons where the top line may be excused. But most of the time I use the most recent for dirt races. It's less of a guessing game to use the most recent.

Higher class, trouble, claimed, distance, up close early after a lay off, off track, etc. are reasons.

I do not consider turf races when handicapping for dirt, or vice versa. In fact I cross them out. Also races less than 4.5f because they more closely resemble quarter horse races, and are virtually pace less.

But when I do use a line other then the last, it is more of a guessing game how it will run today.

I played Turf Paradise today. (I always feel a little dirty playing a track with such high take outs.) I bet 3 of 8 races.

As an example--Race 3 $16k claiming

#2 Reconsidering last ran in OP Clm $20k pace line 92/88/180.

All his races were higher class down to eight races ago 7/2/17. So I also used 7/14 race at Alb was (89/93/184) which I wrote under in parentheses.

#5 Four times Lucky last race was $16 Op Clm, pace line 85/80/165

Next line down 9/3 at Cby was (95/85/180).

The two won, and the 5 finished second, but based on the last pace line, he had no right to place.

I bet the 2 to win and double the win bet to place and it paid $7.00 and $3.00

Pizolla also advised to use all turf races in selecting a pace line.

This greatly increased my win pct. on turf races.

Race 7 turf, clm $20k, the best pace lines from each horse were--

1) 85/84/169
2) 82/94/176
3) 82/90/172
4) 78/95/173
5) 80/92/172
6) 77/98/175
7) 87/96/183
8) 87/92/179
9) 82/96/178

The 7 won and paid $11.40. It's last race was 1:37.1 and lost by 10 lengths. The line was 78/86/164 it was 16k op clm, I rate 2 levels higher.

I lose my share of all kinds of races, but these steps give me reasons to play or avoid races.
JohnGalt1 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-12-2017, 10:07 PM   #15
dlivery
Registered User
 
dlivery's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 142
Rep Power: 0 dlivery is an unknown quantity at this point
Thank You

Yes Im not looking for trouble but it seems to logical to be of a concern about the horses last line that was a good a effort.
Class wise yes but just boggles my mind how the public bets.

Thanks again for all your insight
dlivery is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
What post time odds would you require to bet on Justify in the Belmont?
1/1 or even lower - 16.98%
9 Votes
2/1 - 37.74%
20 Votes
3/1 - 16.98%
9 Votes
4/1 - 15.09%
8 Votes
5/1 - 3.77%
2 Votes
6/1 or higher - 9.43%
5 Votes
Total Votes: 53
Non-members may not vote on this poll.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:17 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.