Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 01-31-2018, 09:25 AM   #76
rrpic6
Registered User
 
rrpic6's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Youngstown, Ohio
Posts: 1,930
Rep Power: 15 rrpic6 is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman View Post
Hook gaining cred amongst players. They pay attention to his picks.

As a jock's agent, former official, on-screen handicapper, and avid bettor, the dude has real chops and elevates the joint. Quite an asset to his employers.
Matt definitely knows Ohio racing. Only flaw is sometimes his Morning Lines are off from mine. Not to be a jerk, but mine are more accurate. I'll use today's 5th Race as an example. The ML of entry mates #1 Eightthehardway and #1A Mixed Colors are 15-1. They are Ohio Breds facing open company in a NW2 other than Allowance. If they both run, I see them going off at 7-2. If the #1 scratches then 15-1 is accurate. If #1A scratches, Eighttheharday still goes off at 6-1. He's won 7 of his 8 lifetime races at MVR, including the last 2 runnings of the 75K Ruff/Kirchberb Memorial Handicap for Ohio Breds. BRIS ranks him 1st in Prime Power and 4th in average speed rating.

RR

PS. I still miss buddy McGary. He helped put Mahoning Valley on the map.
__________________
My posts do not reflect the views of Hollywood Gaming at Mahoning Valley Race Course or Penn National Gaming.Twitter handle is kctrick@RonRuchtie
rrpic6 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-31-2018, 11:47 AM   #77
mountainman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 3,141
Rep Power: 19 mountainman will become famous soon enoughmountainman will become famous soon enough
I've probably done 40,000 races as an official ML maker and was rated the 12th most accurate in America by an impartial study. But I still commit grievous errors-usually from rushing through it-that make me want to kick myself.

It's a thankless job. And it's easy to sit back and cherry pick obvious mistakes. I mean, how could you NOT see the wildly innacurate price-point assigned the coupling you mentioned?? I caught it last night.

Sometimes , even an accurate oddsmaker looks back at his work and says to himself: " Sweet Jesus, WHAT was I thinking??"

Btw, I like John, too, and respect him very much. But Hook's vast experience in so many aspects of the game make him uniquely qualified for his duties.

Hope all is well with your wagers and tip card. Had surgery last Wed, but now back in the swing and playing Mvr everyday.
mountainman is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-03-2018, 09:14 PM   #78
mountainman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 3,141
Rep Power: 19 mountainman will become famous soon enoughmountainman will become famous soon enough
Late tote shifts-big ones-based on track bias.
mountainman is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-04-2018, 04:07 AM   #79
rrpic6
Registered User
 
rrpic6's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Youngstown, Ohio
Posts: 1,930
Rep Power: 15 rrpic6 is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman View Post
Late tote shifts-big ones-based on track bias.
Sitting off the pace from outside posts worked all day Saturday in sprints and routes. The lone exception was Race 2, where the winner and 2nd place finishers came from the 1 and 2 slots. My top pick on the tipsheet in Race 8, #11 Royal Baby got hammered down from ML 8-1 to 8/5 (biting lip on Morning Lines..LOL). Hope you are recovering from surgery and back to firing away Mark.

RR
__________________
My posts do not reflect the views of Hollywood Gaming at Mahoning Valley Race Course or Penn National Gaming.Twitter handle is kctrick@RonRuchtie
rrpic6 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-06-2018, 07:00 PM   #80
rrpic6
Registered User
 
rrpic6's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Youngstown, Ohio
Posts: 1,930
Rep Power: 15 rrpic6 is on a distinguished road
6 year old Seas Courage tries again to break his maiden in Wednesday's 8th Race at Mahoning Valley. It's a mile race for Ohio Bred's. He draws Post 9. Outside posts have been brutal in MILE races. Outside posts at any other distances have been Golden lately. His ML is 5-1. Oh Yea.....he's 0 for 54! More than half way home to Zippy Chippy territory. Is he currently holding the longest 0-fer streak in racing?

RR
__________________
My posts do not reflect the views of Hollywood Gaming at Mahoning Valley Race Course or Penn National Gaming.Twitter handle is kctrick@RonRuchtie
rrpic6 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-07-2018, 04:13 PM   #81
Jeff P
Registered User
 
Jeff P's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 3,022
Rep Power: 21 Jeff P has a spectacular aura aboutJeff P has a spectacular aura about
I think it's possible that Berrios (aboard Seas Courage) may have just set a record for finding the most traffic or total elapsed time hindered by traffic in a race. If not a record since the track first opened, then certainly in the running for a record since opening day for the current meet.


-jp

.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com

Last edited by Jeff P; 02-07-2018 at 04:26 PM.
Jeff P is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-10-2018, 10:58 PM   #82
mountainman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 3,141
Rep Power: 19 mountainman will become famous soon enoughmountainman will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by rrpic6 View Post
Sitting off the pace from outside posts worked all day Saturday in sprints and routes. The lone exception was Race 2, where the winner and 2nd place finishers came from the 1 and 2 slots. My top pick on the tipsheet in Race 8, #11 Royal Baby got hammered down from ML 8-1 to 8/5 (biting lip on Morning Lines..LOL). Hope you are recovering from surgery and back to firing away Mark.

RR
Tx, pal. Path bias does wield greater and more predictable influence at sprint distances. In routes, mitigating factors come into play.

Just released from second hospital stay-this time four days-necessitated by post surgical complications.
mountainman is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-13-2018, 03:39 PM   #83
mountainman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 3,141
Rep Power: 19 mountainman will become famous soon enoughmountainman will become famous soon enough
Abysmal cards at Mahoning have become a real issue for me. Given the purse hikes, I expected better. Instead, the decline in quality from last season, when appealing alw/optionals and even NC alw races were frequently offered, has been jarring.

True, the size of their cheapest fields remains-in some cases-a legitimate lure, and the mandated focus there on ohio- bred events will always drag them down, but only a shameless apologist could really defend what they have been churning out in Austintown.

And before interpreting this post as biased or self-serving on the part of a Mnr employee, please remember that NOBODY has recommended MVR more often or with more enthusiasm than me. My numerous endorsements, both on here and on our show, are a matter of record.

Last edited by mountainman; 02-13-2018 at 03:52 PM.
mountainman is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-13-2018, 07:29 PM   #84
bello
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 1,095
Rep Power: 0 bello is an unknown quantity at this point
Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman View Post
Abysmal cards at Mahoning have become a real issue for me. Given the purse hikes, I expected better. Instead, the decline in quality from last season, when appealing alw/optionals and even NC alw races were frequently offered, has been jarring.

True, the size of their cheapest fields remains-in some cases-a legitimate lure, and the mandated focus there on ohio- bred events will always drag them down, but only a shameless apologist could really defend what they have been churning out in Austintown.

And before interpreting this post as biased or self-serving on the part of a Mnr employee, please remember that NOBODY has recommended MVR more often or with more enthusiasm than me. My numerous endorsements, both on here and on our show, are a matter of record.
I took a stab there early in the meet. Had a few winning days and more losing days. But the amount of shippers being jammed into races that were totally lame and unfit to race was a real turnoff. Not for me. Seemed to be no oversight at all.
bello is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-14-2018, 09:09 AM   #85
rrpic6
Registered User
 
rrpic6's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Youngstown, Ohio
Posts: 1,930
Rep Power: 15 rrpic6 is on a distinguished road
The Valentine's Day card at MVR is a nice one. Purses average over 17K for the 8 races. There are 2 open 10K races, 2 Maiden Special Weights, 1 open the other for Ohio Breds. A Starter Allowance with a 16K purse featuring Pacific Image who won 8 races in 2017. One Maiden Claiming race, one conditioned claiming race and the other a Non-winners of 3 lifetime claiming race. Each of those 3 races have at least 10K in total purse money. Purses were raised by 5% at the start of 2018.

Just look to Gulfstream that has a steady diet of $6250 claimers on dirt or $16K conditioned turf races or California that has equally low level claimers running daily.

I can think of only 4 horses that have broken down and had to be put down since the meet opened last October. No racing occurred for over 10 straight days in January due to freezing rain, ice and heavy snow. The track maintenance is superb. The biases can change in a heart beat. With the constant freezing and thawing this time of year, handicapping is a true challenge. Stick with it boys!

RR
__________________
My posts do not reflect the views of Hollywood Gaming at Mahoning Valley Race Course or Penn National Gaming.Twitter handle is kctrick@RonRuchtie
rrpic6 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-14-2018, 11:17 AM   #86
bello
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 1,095
Rep Power: 0 bello is an unknown quantity at this point
Love your enthusiasm RR and I will give MVR another shot for sure.

One of my betting patterns at the Mountain was keying on certain shippers from certain tracks....love the FL shippers as as example.

Maybe it was an anomaly, and certainly what applies at one track does not work universally, or it would be an easy game. But the shippers I played ( not sure what constitutes a breakdown) where ill prepared to race or just plain lame.

I always defended the smaller tracks as a home for slower horses that still could and should be racing. Small infirmaries and age very well may be part of their issues. But it seemed to me some of the horses racing just should not have been on the track and seemed to be there for one last hail mary to be claimed. I never felt that at Mtneer or CT.

I am willing to give it another whirl as I love the secondary and tertiary tracks and want to support them with my wagering dollars.
bello is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-14-2018, 06:50 PM   #87
rrpic6
Registered User
 
rrpic6's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Youngstown, Ohio
Posts: 1,930
Rep Power: 15 rrpic6 is on a distinguished road
Welcome back Bello and best of luck to you!

Congrats to the lone winner of the Buckeye Pick 6 today! It paid $31,187. Not really that hard to get to IMO. The results for each leg were:
Race 3: $6.60
Race 4: $11.00
Race 5: $4.80
Race 6: $10.40
Race 7: $4.20
Race 8: $8.00 (My top pick on my tipsheet. Morning Line was 8-1).

Pacific Image, winner of 8 races in 2017, won his 1st race of 2018 easily in Race 2.

RR
__________________
My posts do not reflect the views of Hollywood Gaming at Mahoning Valley Race Course or Penn National Gaming.Twitter handle is kctrick@RonRuchtie
rrpic6 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-15-2018, 12:50 AM   #88
mountainman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 3,141
Rep Power: 19 mountainman will become famous soon enoughmountainman will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by rrpic6 View Post
The Valentine's Day card at MVR is a nice one. Purses average over 17K for the 8 races. There are 2 open 10K races, 2 Maiden Special Weights, 1 open the other for Ohio Breds. A Starter Allowance with a 16K purse featuring Pacific Image who won 8 races in 2017. One Maiden Claiming race, one conditioned claiming race and the other a Non-winners of 3 lifetime claiming race. Each of those 3 races have at least 10K in total purse money. Purses were raised by 5% at the start of 2018.

Just look to Gulfstream that has a steady diet of $6250 claimers on dirt or $16K conditioned turf races or California that has equally low level claimers running daily.

I can think of only 4 horses that have broken down and had to be put down since the meet opened last October. No racing occurred for over 10 straight days in January due to freezing rain, ice and heavy snow. The track maintenance is superb. The biases can change in a heart beat. With the constant freezing and thawing this time of year, handicapping is a true challenge. Stick with it boys!

RR
Loved today's card and capitalized by virtue of the distinct bias. But higher-grade programs are to be expected for awhile as a result of mvr's better horses having been "starved out" by the spate of cancellations. (and should not be overrated as a positive omen)

After 29 years experience writing and filling races, I'm sure I look at different barometers than most handicappers, but I don't think the arrow is pointed up.

Let me stress that the office crew should not shoulder blame. Those guys do a nice job and have been bombarded by enough negative rumors. And I commend the director's pro-active approach in monitoring the quality of mvr racing.

Hope your play has been profitable. Late tote movement based on bias still occurring.

Last edited by mountainman; 02-15-2018 at 12:55 AM.
mountainman is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-15-2018, 09:47 AM   #89
mountainman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 3,141
Rep Power: 19 mountainman will become famous soon enoughmountainman will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by rrpic6 View Post
Welcome back Bello and best of luck to you!

Congrats to the lone winner of the Buckeye Pick 6 today! It paid $31,187. Not really that hard to get to IMO. The results for each leg were:
Race 3: $6.60
Race 4: $11.00
Race 5: $4.80
Race 6: $10.40
Race 7: $4.20
Race 8: $8.00 (My top pick on my tipsheet. Morning Line was 8-1).

Pacific Image, winner of 8 races in 2017, won his 1st race of 2018 easily in Race 2.

RR
Circumstances greatly favored Pacific Image. The rail post figured a tomb for Gold Ekati, a suspect gate horse who had come away poorly from the inside once or twice on form, but broke like a shot last time when narrowly beating the Gary Johnson runner.

Perhaps ominously, Gold Ekati, with two(?) dnf's on form, not to mention a glaring year-plus away from action at one point, switched leads in a somewhat belated manner yesterday. Would love to see a rubber match, and my gut says Gold Ekati remains the slightly better horse. But post positions and the break call would weigh heavily on the outcome, and Pacific Image strikes me as likelier to hold form.

My real score yesterday, however, was that 9-8 exacta in the open 10 at 5-fur. What in the WORLD do people who bet the 1-horse use for brains??? Given the distinct possibility that Bebopaleon would outfoot him, and the obvious path-trend in play, the J Rad speedball had zero shot. The winner exploited a perfect trip enhanced by a slick rating job, but stayed leftie and won with difficulty

Last edited by mountainman; 02-15-2018 at 09:51 AM.
mountainman is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-15-2018, 03:50 PM   #90
mountainman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 3,141
Rep Power: 19 mountainman will become famous soon enoughmountainman will become famous soon enough
Just learned that new casino, smoking permitted, soon goes up in New Castle, PA.

Reliable accounts that certain Mvr employees ( compassionate fellows, right to the end) are expressing sympathy for the looming drain on OUR business. Er, ahhhh..tx, boys, but, looked at a map lately??

Might wana do that. Just sayin.'

Ominous.















\

Last edited by mountainman; 02-15-2018 at 04:01 PM.
mountainman is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Which handicapping software has given you the best ROI?
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:25 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.