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Old 12-06-2017, 05:23 PM   #31
mountainman
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Clouston has 3 in today. He's 2 for 9 so far at MVR. Cheap speed was hanging on yesterday. That will happen with a little moisture in the surface. Today track will be bone dry. Should be fair to all.

RR
I found yesterday's strip fair, but today's quite speed-favoring. Bias, however, is in the eye of the beholder, sir.

I do think it's very difficult right now for horses to close wide from well back...I don't mean sweeping turn moves, but instead stone-cold closers out wide down the lane.
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Old 12-06-2017, 06:42 PM   #32
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lol...I start with cash..and hit the atm only if I love an upcoming race...I also carry winning tickets from past cards in my pocket..
LOL. Reminded me of my neighbor who got me started on this at Penn National. We used to take his Smoky and the Bandit model Firebird to the track. Upon arriving he'd go back and pop the trunk and get a wad of bills from under the carpet at the spare tire. I asked him why he kept all that money in the trunk. He said Carol(his wife) didn't need to know how much he'd made. He was a big blonde-haired bear of a man, whom I sure any old Penn regulars would remember as Whitey or Bodie.
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Old 12-07-2017, 10:01 AM   #33
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I killed them today...8/5...9/2 ..8-1..9-1...and 4-1 on a horse I loved in the last...best day for me in several years...

For future reference, sir, my 9-1 ($21.80) winner, Ideal Place, was a choppy mover who tended to stay left lead last year. Today, though, he moved smoothly and seemed to switch on cue. Also, he came from way back (against the grain) to blow by a loose leader who had controlled the pace. VERY live for next-if correctly spotted.
Nice Job MM.....I am still on the fence.
Once again I nailed the DD. The firster in race 1 paid shockingly well for a horse whose workouts were not camouflaged and won by a mile.
The starter allowance in race 4 was an ice cold number IMO. Then I not only lost races 567 I got destroyed. Really dismayed the 1 in race 7 was even on the track ( with my money) as his action was awful from the start and the board showed it.
Im with you on the 8 race and was shocked at the exacta price ( very good)

So I am showing a profit but when I go back to review the races I lost, I simply cannot make case for the winners and that is bothering me.

Last edited by bello; 12-07-2017 at 10:04 AM.
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Old 12-09-2017, 05:54 PM   #34
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They can't time a race worth a damn and it is very tough to make speed figures. But your average Joe doesn't realize this and bets as usual.
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Old 12-09-2017, 06:58 PM   #35
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Gee, that's odd.
Even when they were not timing the splits, BRIS was able get pace figs out for every race!

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Old 12-09-2017, 10:10 PM   #36
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They can't time a race worth a damn and it is very tough to make speed figures. But your average Joe doesn't realize this and bets as usual.
lol..I'm well aware of that, Craig...but times and figs are a dispensable part of my game...in fact, I prefer the chaos of inaccurate clockings, because speed figs much influence the pools......btw, merry xmas , pal!!

Last edited by mountainman; 12-09-2017 at 10:13 PM.
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Old 12-12-2017, 08:54 AM   #37
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They can't time a race worth a damn and it is very tough to make speed figures. But your average Joe doesn't realize this and bets as usual.
The times are accurate as far as I can tell. The problem is plenty of sand has been dumped on the surface the past week. The surface is the deepest I've ever seen it. Beyond being "Winterized". 6 furlongs in 1:18 for maidens and low level types. 1:16 for the typical open claimers. We had the 1st measurable snowfall last night so today should be interesting. Most winners came from the outside posts and outside part of the track on Monday.

In Race 8, #1 Tilt the Balance went wire to wire from the inside to break that trend. Put the 2nd place finisher, Afleet Tee on any horses to watch list. She was 50-1, broke slowly from #2 post, swung wide, checked and ducked inside late, flew past the winner after the wire. I had the exacta to rescue my worst day of handicapping MVR this year.

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Old 12-12-2017, 09:10 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by rrpic6 View Post
The times are accurate as far as I can tell. The problem is plenty of sand has been dumped on the surface the past week. The surface is the deepest I've ever seen it. Beyond being "Winterized". 6 furlongs in 1:18 for maidens and low level types. 1:16 for the typical open claimers. We had the 1st measurable snowfall last night so today should be interesting. Most winners came from the outside posts and outside part of the track on Monday.

In Race 8, #1 Tilt the Balance went wire to wire from the inside to break that trend. Put the 2nd place finisher, Afleet Tee on any horses to watch list. She was 50-1, broke slowly from #2 post, swung wide, checked and ducked inside late, flew past the winner after the wire. I had the exacta to rescue my worst day of handicapping MVR this year.

RR
You could be correct, but I'm skeptical when I see so many races with missing fractions (27 this year at least, about 4%) and a lot of the time gaps between races on the same day make no sense. My experience has been when there are this many timer malfunctions, the obvious ones are caught but many more slip through the cracks.
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Old 12-12-2017, 01:18 PM   #39
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The times are accurate as far as I can tell. The problem is plenty of sand has been dumped on the surface the past week. The surface is the deepest I've ever seen it. Beyond being "Winterized". 6 furlongs in 1:18 for maidens and low level types. 1:16 for the typical open claimers. We had the 1st measurable snowfall last night so today should be interesting. Most winners came from the outside posts and outside part of the track on Monday.

In Race 8, #1 Tilt the Balance went wire to wire from the inside to break that trend. Put the 2nd place finisher, Afleet Tee on any horses to watch list. She was 50-1, broke slowly from #2 post, swung wide, checked and ducked inside late, flew past the winner after the wire. I had the exacta to rescue my worst day of handicapping MVR this year.

RR
Totally off opic, but couldn't help myself.

1st day I ever went to the track, Memorial Day 1982, a horse named Tilt the Balance won the Memorial Day Handicap at Longacres. He was my very first winning bet, OF MY ENTIRE LIFE.
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Old 12-12-2017, 10:11 PM   #40
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The times are accurate as far as I can tell. The problem is plenty of sand has been dumped on the surface the past week. The surface is the deepest I've ever seen it. Beyond being "Winterized". 6 furlongs in 1:18 for maidens and low level types. 1:16 for the typical open claimers. We had the 1st measurable snowfall last night so today should be interesting. Most winners came from the outside posts and outside part of the track on Monday.

In Race 8, #1 Tilt the Balance went wire to wire from the inside to break that trend. Put the 2nd place finisher, Afleet Tee on any horses to watch list. She was 50-1, broke slowly from #2 post, swung wide, checked and ducked inside late, flew past the winner after the wire. I had the exacta to rescue my worst day of handicapping MVR this year.

RR
There WAS no rescue for me yesterday.
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Old 12-12-2017, 10:39 PM   #41
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You could be correct, but I'm skeptical when I see so many races with missing fractions (27 this year at least, about 4%) and a lot of the time gaps between races on the same day make no sense. My experience has been when there are this many timer malfunctions, the obvious ones are caught but many more slip through the cracks.
I need 5/8 split on 5 1/2 furlong races. It's important to me.
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Old 12-12-2017, 10:42 PM   #42
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The times are accurate as far as I can tell. The problem is plenty of sand has been dumped on the surface the past week. The surface is the deepest I've ever seen it. Beyond being "Winterized". 6 furlongs in 1:18 for maidens and low level types. 1:16 for the typical open claimers. We had the 1st measurable snowfall last night so today should be interesting. Most winners came from the outside posts and outside part of the track on Monday.

In Race 8, #1 Tilt the Balance went wire to wire from the inside to break that trend. Put the 2nd place finisher, Afleet Tee on any horses to watch list. She was 50-1, broke slowly from #2 post, swung wide, checked and ducked inside late, flew past the winner after the wire. I had the exacta to rescue my worst day of handicapping MVR this year.

RR
When it's really cold, that surface often becomes more speed conducive late in the day.
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Old 12-19-2017, 11:28 AM   #43
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Tricky surface. The rail has been dead and speed unable to win. But deep
closers floated out to the crown have also struggled. Just two ways right now to win over this track: advance wide and boldly to challenge at the quarter pole, or rally from striking distance while splitting horses.

Geometry doesn't kick in until the field spins off the turn.

Last edited by mountainman; 12-19-2017 at 11:36 AM.
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Old 12-20-2017, 07:06 PM   #44
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TUES 12-19-2017: Starting with R1, I noticed a few subtle changes in the surface. vs. Monday's card and the past several cards leading up to Monday's card - which, imo, Mark did a great job of describing in post #43.

For most of Tuesday's card: I thought the rail along the far turn was still a bit deep and tiring - but not quite to the same degree as that seen during the past several race dates. I also thought horses who found themselves along the rail from the top of the strech on seemed to be getting over the surface ok (unlike the past several race dates.)


WED 12-19-2017: Imo, starting with R1, more/continuing subtle changes.

For most of Wednesday's card: I thought the rail along the far turn had become ok (unlike the past several race cards.) I also thought horses hung out wide on the far turn were actually paying a price (unlike the past several race cards.) And I thought horses who found themselves along the rail from the top of the stretch on seemed to be getting over the surface ok - perhaps a little better than they had on Tuesday's card. (Imo, a complete 180 compared to the past several race cards leading up to Tuesday's card.)

Looking ahead, right now as I type this, 50% chance of rain predicted for Fri (80% for Sat.)

Imo, some not so subtle changes for the surface between now and Saturday.



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Last edited by Jeff P; 12-20-2017 at 07:11 PM.
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Old 12-20-2017, 10:49 PM   #45
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TUES 12-19-2017: Starting with R1, I noticed a few subtle changes in the surface. vs. Monday's card and the past several cards leading up to Monday's card - which, imo, Mark did a great job of describing in post #43.

For most of Tuesday's card: I thought the rail along the far turn was still a bit deep and tiring - but not quite to the same degree as that seen during the past several race dates. I also thought horses who found themselves along the rail from the top of the strech on seemed to be getting over the surface ok (unlike the past several race dates.)


WED 12-19-2017: Imo, starting with R1, more/continuing subtle changes.

For most of Wednesday's card: I thought the rail along the far turn had become ok (unlike the past several race cards.) I also thought horses hung out wide on the far turn were actually paying a price (unlike the past several race cards.) And I thought horses who found themselves along the rail from the top of the stretch on seemed to be getting over the surface ok - perhaps a little better than they had on Tuesday's card. (Imo, a complete 180 compared to the past several race cards leading up to Tuesday's card.)

Looking ahead, right now as I type this, 50% chance of rain predicted for Fri (80% for Sat.)

Imo, some not so subtle changes for the surface between now and Saturday.



-jp

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Very sharp post. Some of the players at mnr's simulcast facility who consult me on mvr bias reacted with skepticism Tuesday when I observed that the strip was changing.

In my opinion, that transformation-inner paths on the far turn and getting the early lead were no longer sure death-was more discernable today.

Unlike my home track, Mvr is a track prone to complex (and almost self-contradictory) biases.

I'll be guesting Dec 30 for host Matt Hook at Mahoning's Saturday morning seminar. It's in the grandstand at 11AM.

Great to see you weigh in, Jeff. Merry xmas!!
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