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Old 02-05-2018, 04:09 PM   #31
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I knew it.....we're all gonna die!!!
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Old 02-05-2018, 04:10 PM   #32
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We are almost down to 2,600 on the S&P futures....we were at 2,700 about 45 minutes ago...
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Old 02-05-2018, 04:13 PM   #33
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Even worse than I thought.
Same here. I was on the floor in 1987 ... that was scary. This is ... unbelievable.
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Old 02-05-2018, 04:15 PM   #34
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Futures closed at 2,607.50.

At 4pm they were at 2,650 or so....
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Old 02-05-2018, 04:22 PM   #35
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Same here. I was on the floor in 1987 ... that was scary. This is ... unbelievable.
Why? The market's had a huge run over the past 15 months. Even with this modest correction, the S&P 500 trades at 17.4x 2018 estimated earnings (using the higher top down #s). If you think rates will stay here for the next few years, I guess that multiple makes sense. If you think rates might move up 100 to 150 bps, the market still seems fully valued. I realize you buy individual names, so none of this may matter to you.
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Old 02-05-2018, 04:25 PM   #36
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As big as this drop has been the last couple of days...everyone needs to realize just how much this market has gone up...forget about since November 2016...how about the last how many years?

Markets always go down faster than they go up...and the more they go up, the bigger those drops are going to seem...

But in reality...all we did was erase the gains for 2018...that's right...2018...which is barely a month old.

To put this move in perspective...it's still basically nothing.
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Old 02-05-2018, 04:32 PM   #37
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I'm still pissed after closing my 401k account in 2013 when the Dow was at 13,000 and the "experts" said we were due for a Market collapse.
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Old 02-05-2018, 04:47 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
As big as this drop has been the last couple of days...everyone needs to realize just how much this market has gone up...forget about since November 2016...how about the last how many years?

Markets always go down faster than they go up...and the more they go up, the bigger those drops are going to seem...

But in reality...all we did was erase the gains for 2018...that's right...2018...which is barely a month old.

To put this move in perspective...it's still basically nothing.
They say by percentage , this is the 25th largest drop.
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Old 02-05-2018, 05:45 PM   #39
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BTW, all those debating me that they don't have BOTS that drive the market crazy like they do in horse racing, take a look at today...
The bid/ask stack was ridiculous for a while. I hadn't logged in since early morning, saw the late PM dump and decided to ride a bounce - not knowing how thin it really was. D'oh! Got in and out of a couple trades for a quick dime, and then watched the plunge continue. Should not have gone into the pool. So much for the machines providing "liquidity". I guess only when they want it.

The only other day I've seen like this since 2008 was when Brexit passed, and ThinkorSwim jammed up tight.

S&P futures plunged to 2595.75 coming out of lock up, and now are around 2620 when trading resumes in 20 mins, which is right around the little dip from early December. Not sure where it will be tomorrow morning, but I suspect we'll see an overnight bounce up. Will take some gonads to be long in the morning....
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Old 02-05-2018, 10:38 PM   #40
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... Not sure where it will be tomorrow morning, but I suspect we'll see an overnight bounce up.
Or not.

Futures currently down 50 on the S&P (~2%) around 2555. The bid/ask numbers about 1/10th of normal. Staying out of the pool.

Here's a post by Karl Denninger on the carnage, implying the HFT machines are turned off. If the futes are lock-limit down in the morning, it'll be curious what Trump will be tweeting.....

http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/...ww?post=232923
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Old 02-05-2018, 11:05 PM   #41
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Is Karl Denninger actually taking the loss of 2018's market gain (that's right...we lost one month of market gains...that's it...in all this "carnage") to hype all that nonsense?

Although he is 100% correct on the BOT trading...I should take his post and put it up in the thread where someone tried to tell me that what happens in horse racing with the computer robotic wagering doesn't happen in the stock market...
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Old 02-05-2018, 11:20 PM   #42
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Over 400,00 S&P futures contracts have traded already since the close...that's big time overnight volume...S&P futures currently sit at 2535....this is the session LOW thus far...

It closed at 4pm at 26450...in DOW terms, it's down 1,000 points since the market CLOSED today....and the market closed down 1,100 points or so...

That's over a 2,000 point drop in less than one day so far...

And Karl is right...there is NO liquidity at the bid and ask...SINGLE DIGITS....during regular markets, you'd see probably triple digit liquidity, even at this time of night, or close to it...

Was bitcoin really the Ponzi scheme after all?
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Old 02-06-2018, 03:34 AM   #43
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Two of my sell indicators were triggered on Friday. Combined with other factors it has been obvious to me since January there would be a correction. The hard part is getting the timing right. I have been 50% in cash for 6 months. The stocks I own are fairly low volatility, but they have fallen a bit.

VIX has nearly quadrupled to 37 since its recent lows of around 9.

There have been 4 prime rate hikes since December of 2016. The most recent hike was in January 2018. Those hikes were all point, but combined they equal a 1% hike since the low of 3.25% in January 2009.

When interest rates go up, stocks tend to go down.

Portfolio insurance is probably involved, too. If a little player like me got a sell signal then there were probably a lot of other big time money managers who got sell signals on Friday, too.

I think we all knew a correction in the stock market (as well as cryptos) was coming. It was just a matter of when, how big, and how long.
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Old 02-06-2018, 04:19 AM   #44
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Is Karl Denninger actually taking the loss of 2018's market gain (that's right...we lost one month of market gains...that's it...in all this "carnage") to hype all that nonsense?

Although he is 100% correct on the BOT trading...I should take his post and put it up in the thread where someone tried to tell me that what happens in horse racing with the computer robotic wagering doesn't happen in the stock market...
Denniger's site always has a lot more traffic when the market tanks, per his calls back in 2007 and 2008 that rough waters were ahead, so I suppose he took the last few days of declines to get back on his "I told you so" horse.

I'd agree that so far we've only seen the froth on top of the last move get blown off - but, with the thin stack we can see how fragile things can get, and how quickly the moves can go. I'll be curious if KD spells out any specifics of the damage. It makes you worry how sound things are, though I can already hear the grumblings for QE 4.

4:17 AM EST, and futes have made a big turnaround, up 33 at 2640. The stack is a bit more stable, and now roughly 20-30% of normal levels, with heavier volume as you pointed out for the overnight session.

Gonna set the alarm clock for the open. Could be interesting.
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Old 02-06-2018, 04:26 AM   #45
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Two of my sell indicators were triggered on Friday. Combined with other factors it has been obvious to me since January there would be a correction. The hard part is getting the timing right. I have been 50% in cash for 6 months. The stocks I own are fairly low volatility, but they have fallen a bit.

VIX has nearly quadrupled to 37 since its recent lows of around 9.

There have been 4 prime rate hikes since December of 2016. The most recent hike was in January 2018. Those hikes were all point, but combined they equal a 1% hike since the low of 3.25% in January 2009.

When interest rates go up, stocks tend to go down.

Portfolio insurance is probably involved, too. If a little player like me got a sell signal then there were probably a lot of other big time money managers who got sell signals on Friday, too.

I think we all knew a correction in the stock market (as well as cryptos) was coming. It was just a matter of when, how big, and how long.
Plenty of factors at work, including the rate hikes which still probably aren't priced in. Yesterday's sell off reminds me a bit of the market tantrums back in 2012 when rate hikes were discussed - perhaps a message for the new Fed Chair Powell?

Definitely had to be some margin calls too, and now some speculators will be left high and dry by their brokerages. If the dollar actually strengthens during the next big flush, things could crash pretty quickly. It only moved up a buck the last three trading days from 88.44 to 89.48. What's the market do if it goes back to 100?
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