Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 11-29-2017, 07:20 PM   #1
dragon49
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 53
Daily double math

Assuming both halves of a daily double have 8 entries and a bettor boxes 1-4 in race 1 with the field in race 2.

Assuming one of his selections wins race 1, what do the average odds one the winners have to be for the wager to break even?
dragon49 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-29-2017, 07:28 PM   #2
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
31-1
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-29-2017, 07:55 PM   #3
dragon49
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
31-1
I had a feeling it was a bad strategy, but had no idea it was that bad.

Do you mind sharing the formula you used to figure it out.

Thanks
dragon49 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-29-2017, 08:01 PM   #4
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
There is no fancy formula involved. You are betting on 32 different daily-double combinations...so you need a 31-1 average payoff in order to break even.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-30-2017, 10:38 PM   #5
garyscpa
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 1,515
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
There is no fancy formula involved. You are betting on 32 different daily-double combinations...so you need a 31-1 average payoff in order to break even.
I think you misunderstood the question.

Last edited by garyscpa; 11-30-2017 at 10:43 PM.
garyscpa is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-30-2017, 11:16 PM   #6
Fred Mertz
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Kentucky
Posts: 433
Quote:
Originally Posted by garyscpa View Post
I think you misunderstood the question.
Conditional probability I assume. He wins the first race of the daily double.

Not enough information provided to answer his question.

My second race horses would finish second or third. I know this from experience.
Fred Mertz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-05-2017, 01:40 PM   #7
davew
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,451
Quote:
Originally Posted by garyscpa View Post
I think you misunderstood the question.
Thask answered what the daily double must pay -

the original question was about what the second horse must pay

We do not know what the winner of the first paid, but it does not even matter because the daily double is a separate parimutual pool and not a 'parlay'.

Before most tracks had daily doubles in most races, some bettors made their own 'double' by making win bet parlays.
davew is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-05-2017, 04:31 PM   #8
Franco Santiago
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 117
The statement of the problem should be:

What aggregate ROI do I need in each race of the leg of a daily double to ultimately show a profit on the bet. The ROI is in relation to the win pool, as it is our only reference.

Taking 4 horses in an 8 horse field, if you are REALLY good, will result in about a .82 or .83 ROI. Most people aren't that good.

Taking all of the horses in an 8 horse field will yield about a .69 or .70 ROI...or mayyyyybe .71 or .72.

These aggregate ROIs will yield a huge loss in the daily double pool...probably on the order of 20 cents on the dollar (.80 ROI).

Try narrowing the selections down to two per race with an ROI of about .90 (if you bet them to win). You'll have a decent shot of being profitable, but you will have to withstand some potentially ugly losing streaks.

There's no two ways about it...if you want to profit, you are going to have to find longer prices and have the discipline and patience to withstand the potentially debilitating losing streaks. If you want to cash tickets, just play the top two in the morning line...you'll cash tons of tickets, but the bankroll erosion will be fast and definitive.

Last edited by Franco Santiago; 12-05-2017 at 04:32 PM.
Franco Santiago is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-05-2017, 08:29 PM   #9
green80
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
Quote:
Originally Posted by Franco Santiago View Post
The statement of the problem should be:

What aggregate ROI do I need in each race of the leg of a daily double to ultimately show a profit on the bet. The ROI is in relation to the win pool, as it is our only reference.

Taking 4 horses in an 8 horse field, if you are REALLY good, will result in about a .82 or .83 ROI. Most people aren't that good.

Taking all of the horses in an 8 horse field will yield about a .69 or .70 ROI...or mayyyyybe .71 or .72.

These aggregate ROIs will yield a huge loss in the daily double pool...probably on the order of 20 cents on the dollar (.80 ROI).

Try narrowing the selections down to two per race with an ROI of about .90 (if you bet them to win). You'll have a decent shot of being profitable, but you will have to withstand some potentially ugly losing streaks.

There's no two ways about it...if you want to profit, you are going to have to find longer prices and have the discipline and patience to withstand the potentially debilitating losing streaks. If you want to cash tickets, just play the top two in the morning line...you'll cash tons of tickets, but the bankroll erosion will be fast and definitive.
The double ROI may or may not be relative to the win pool, the double is a seperate pool from the win pool. What the double pays can be lower or higher that what the horses pay in the win pools. Doubles pay sometimes more or sometimes less than a parlay of the same two horses in the win pool.
green80 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-05-2017, 09:36 PM   #10
Franco Santiago
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 117
Quote:
Originally Posted by green80 View Post
The double ROI may or may not be relative to the win pool, the double is a seperate pool from the win pool. What the double pays can be lower or higher that what the horses pay in the win pools. Doubles pay sometimes more or sometimes less than a parlay of the same two horses in the win pool.
I agree. But, in general, they pay more than a parlay, especially if the two morning line favorites don't win.
Franco Santiago is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-08-2017, 06:26 PM   #11
green80
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
Quote:
Originally Posted by Franco Santiago View Post
I agree. But, in general, they pay more than a parlay, especially if the two morning line favorites don't win.
They should, the take only comes out one time. But I am suprised at some track a parlay would pay more when the horses have some decent odds.
green80 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-08-2017, 10:24 PM   #12
AltonKelsey
Veteran
 
AltonKelsey's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
Nothing surprising about it. Take two 10-1 shots

Forgetting about takeout for the moment to simplify the example.

100-1 For the DD

thats only 1% of the pool, which might not be all that large , even at a major.


Very easy for that to be overbet . just an extra $100 double enough to take quite a bit off the payoff.

So the parlay can easily pay more
AltonKelsey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-09-2017, 09:39 AM   #13
green80
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey View Post
Nothing surprising about it. Take two 10-1 shots

Forgetting about takeout for the moment to simplify the example.

100-1 For the DD

thats only 1% of the pool, which might not be all that large , even at a major.


Very easy for that to be overbet . just an extra $100 double enough to take quite a bit off the payoff.

So the parlay can easily pay more
That is my point, to respectfully disagree with post #10
green80 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-09-2017, 01:21 PM   #14
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by green80 View Post
That is my point, to respectfully disagree with post #10
Yes DD payoffs can be skewed because of small pools but "generally" they will pay more than a parlay. I agree with post#10.
AndyC is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-09-2017, 02:17 PM   #15
AltonKelsey
Veteran
 
AltonKelsey's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
Of course, on average, DD will pay more than the parlay, it pretty much HAS TO. Every winning combo is not going to overbet

It's a 2 race version of what you get in the p3 - p6, where thats almost 100% true
AltonKelsey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:19 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.