Running line handicapping

[santaanitafan]

First ever post. Does anyone select horses strictly based on the last running line and without any use of any pace or speed figures? Only consider days away, class rise/drop etc? Often, just by eyeing the horses lines without any type of mathematical support I can pretty well get 3-4 contenders and get 2 or three in the money. Thanks in advance!

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

According to Andrew Beyer in "My $50,000 year at the races A horses last race is the single most important piece of evidence about his current condition, and I don't want that evidence to be equivocal when I am risking a large sum of money."

[santaanitafan]

Thanks—- do you recall which of his books is referenced?

[santaanitafan]

Apology—- found the book.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by santaanitafan

First ever post. Does anyone select horses strictly based on the last running line and without any use of any pace or speed figures? Only consider days away, class rise/drop etc? Often, just by eyeing the horses lines without any type of mathematical support I can pretty well get 3-4 contenders and get 2 or three in the money. Thanks in advance!

So just looking at the last line, without speed or pace numbers you're averaging 2.5 winners(2-3) out of 3.5 contenders(3-4) in the money. Your average strike rate over many races computes to 71.4%, which is close to the favorite. What are the average odds on your winners?

By my calculation, if you don't mind me using some math, you need an average winning odds of 2.4-1 to break even, or lets call it 5/2 for rounding. I use the typical show odds(ITM) as 1/6 of win odds, which has held up pretty well.

To show a modest 5% profit at your strike rate, you'd need win odds of 2.82-1. For 10% profit, 3.25-1. So Probably target 7/2 win odds to net 10% assuming your strike rate doesn't slip below 71%.

[thaskalos]

What do you do when the horse's last race is not representative of today's race conditions?

[santaanitafan]

Thanks for the data. I will use that in the future. My only observation at this point was to see how well I’m able to identify contenders without considering odds et al. The only other main considerations is class drop/rise ; workouts and days since raced. I realize there are a number of peripherals such as trainer/jockey stats, trainers with 2 year olds ad nauseum.

I will admit I’m pretty out of sync with tracks such as Aquaduct etc as I’m much more familiar with SoCal racing. An example is there doesn’t appear to be beyond 4f works for most trainers in the East coast. SoCal trainers often combine 4f’s with 5f’s and even an occasional 3f. I also look for illogical gaps in training days in SoCal while, by first appearance, that doesn’t appear to be a factor on the NY circuit.

Part of my interest lies in somewhat of an comparison in the various (and somewhat overwhelming) number of pace and/or speed figures being offered to the public. My go to standard has been Equibase. Years ago it was the Beyers and I have to admit I I dropped them in favor of pace and speed figures. I used to subscribe to Tom Brohamers weekly pace and speed numbers and I did quite well. Brisnet overwhelms me with all the data being provided and, I just started trying to understand TimeformUS.

As to your point, yes there is so much more to it than just running lines. I’m just a hobbyist so my investigative Time is limited. But, I love this game!

[santaanitafan]

If it’s the wrong surface, significant class drop or rise, long layoff etc I generally pass as far as this exercise goes. I do look at graded horses differently. This exercise is obviously just one piece of a very very large pie,! Thanks for asking and I would appreciate any input,