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11-05-2017, 09:02 PM
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#1
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 980
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Del Mar BC Results
All I can say is that I am going to throw out all BC winners on dirt and turf with the exception of Gun Runner and Roy H.
The results are completely irrelevant and offer little in predictive value for races to be run at REAL race tracks.
Del Mar is bidding to BC again in the future, good grief, I 'd rather they give it to GW.
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11-05-2017, 09:54 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,492
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sounds like somebody had a bad day
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11-06-2017, 04:21 AM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 980
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dansan
sounds like somebody had a bad day
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That dirt surface was a total joke. Some trainers refuse to even train their horses over it?
Losing $30 on a P4 because Bolt d'Oro was hung wide to Chad Brown's horse is indeed a BAD day, I agree.
But seeing so many horses struggle in that quicksand on the inside was an unwatchable horror story. Look Bar of Gold, a NY slop queen won a BC race. She can't beat allowance horses in NY?
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11-06-2017, 06:17 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 293
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dansan
sounds like somebody had a bad day
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Exactly.... all races, including dirt seemed formful to me. Which winners were surprising? None of the winners even had to improve to win... just needed to pair up their best to date. Heck, Bar of Gold had the fastest TG figure coming in... albeit an isolated top. She was far from impossible.
I think the biggest problem is a lot of "fans" got caught up in some overhyped horses. The way some of these favorites were bet was ridiculous... made for some real nice overlays.
Lastly, more often than not this is what you'll get when you have cleanly run races. CD and others, please take notice! It's absolutely no coincidence that Baffert got shut out... even his horses that ran well this weekend were those who didn't run huge "out of town" figures this year.
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11-06-2017, 08:49 AM
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#5
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 248
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Quote:
Originally Posted by linrom1
That dirt surface was a total joke. Some trainers refuse to even train their horses over it?
Losing $30 on a P4 because Bolt d'Oro was hung wide to Chad Brown's horse is indeed a BAD day, I agree.
But seeing so many horses struggle in that quicksand on the inside was an unwatchable horror story. Look Bar of Gold, a NY slop queen won a BC race. She can't beat allowance horses in NY?
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it looks like bar of gold training over a deep track like belmont benefited,not saying i had her but if you thought the speed would quit a case could be made for her to pick up the pieces,she was a quality filly sprinter with a million bucks already in the bank.
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11-06-2017, 09:26 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 636
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Quote:
Originally Posted by linrom1
That dirt surface was a total joke. Some trainers refuse to even train their horses over it?
Losing $30 on a P4 because Bolt d'Oro was hung wide to Chad Brown's horse is indeed a BAD day, I agree.
But seeing so many horses struggle in that quicksand on the inside was an unwatchable horror story. Look Bar of Gold, a NY slop queen won a BC race. She can't beat allowance horses in NY?
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Bar Of Gold was in that quicksand most of the race . third place horse also on rail. Not sure right now but wasn't winner of Bolt d'oro race on rail also and wasn't BDO on the good part of the track. Take your loss and move on
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11-06-2017, 09:45 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 2
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Hail Hail Wider/Better!
How many times have we seen a host track appear fair the day before a stakes showcase day, and then watch a rail bias magically appear on the big day? Tiring speed stays and the track becomes a two path traffic jam. Just when the crowd begins to over bet the inside speed, a race goes the first quarter in sub 21 and some Arcangues type horse blows up the tote and everyones faith in order and logic for that racing day.
The favorable outside racing strip at Del Mar could be anticipated. Speed could be downgraded, but not thrown out. The big chalks bringing their big figs off of inside drag strip tracks coughed up fur balls...And all was right in the world of racing..Mmmmm!
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11-06-2017, 10:41 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,731
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California speed, especially cheap-ish, has been on semi-vacation for a while recently, anyone who follows CA racing has seen it and commented on it. DMR, SA and LRC.
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11-06-2017, 10:58 AM
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#9
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
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I was very surprised that the track was as fair as it was.
In fact, I continued to play Del Mar yesterday.
Now, talking about stupid training techniques and dumb rides, yes, the BC had a good share of those.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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11-06-2017, 11:15 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,492
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I rather see all longshots win than chalk all day now thats no fun I had the best day of since going to play breeder cup
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11-06-2017, 11:55 AM
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#11
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,077
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990
Exactly.... all races, including dirt seemed formful to me. Which winners were surprising? None of the winners even had to improve to win... just needed to pair up their best to date. Heck, Bar of Gold had the fastest TG figure coming in... albeit an isolated top. She was far from impossible.
I think the biggest problem is a lot of "fans" got caught up in some overhyped horses. The way some of these favorites were bet was ridiculous... made for some real nice overlays.
Lastly, more often than not this is what you'll get when you have cleanly run races. CD and others, please take notice! It's absolutely no coincidence that Baffert got shut out... even his horses that ran well this weekend were those who didn't run huge "out of town" figures this year.
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Right on, accurate and to the point. Especially your opinion about the betting. These fields are loaded with talent, the bombs are good enough to win with the right circumstances.
There were so many over bet horses. Where do I start? I'll start on Friday when Elate was shorter than Forever Unbridled. It didn't take a genius to read the PP's and see that class and experience wise the winner towered over most of that field.........especially the 3 yo's. Abel Tasmen was even higher priced and she had beaten Elate. 46.80 bucks for that exacta was a great start for me. Seeing that I only bet two races that day.
Then Saturday Lady Aurelia 3 to freaking 5 in a turf sprint and a course change. Give me a break......its a turf sprint. The winner Stormy Liberal, I did not have but the horses best races were on the west coast.
The race the OP is crying about. Unique Bella 1-1.....lol. This horse had 1 race since March and shes 3 years old vs. seasoned hard knockers in a 7 furlonger where you should know she would be gasping late on a fair track. Didn't have the winner but a couple of mine were in the picture. Was extremely wary of the falsey at 1-1.
Lady Eli, yes, its a great, feel good story but look at Euro's and who they face. I bet Rhododendran and got beat by a horse she had just beaten.
Defong, I liked, but I loved Roy H off his campaign and singled him. That was easy.
The best fave of the day was World Approval and of course I got a sweet double out of that. Gave him out as a best bet during the week.
The Juvenile, 2 yo draws the outside in a loaded field......lost the race but 3/5, again, is a joke on a horse like that.
Highland Reel, at least I can understand the logic with this one. I went belly up on Beach Patrol who ran a good race.
Last but not least was Arrogate, what races were people watching this summer. I used him but weighed in heavily on Gun Runner....that exacta with Collected was a gift. Who has the best current form? It was not Arrogate.
It was hard, not saying it wasn't. But as a horseplayer there were some really good opportunities to beat the general public in this years BC. If you bet like Captain Obvious and listen to the talking heads about chalk......don't bet the BC races. There is like 34 years of that not working.
Last edited by burnsy; 11-06-2017 at 11:59 AM.
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11-06-2017, 01:08 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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I had a mediocre BC. But I can handle my mediocrity! I think there was something at play here though. There were some mediocre horses winning many of these races. In my last over 1,000 races my top contenders represent 20% of the entries and win 56% of the races. With marginal contenders 87%. Chaos factor at 13%.This weekend it was 37%. With marginal contenders 74%. Chaos factor at 26%. I had the 2 classic winners and the juvenile turf sprint. I couldn't bet many of the $6-8 winners other than Gun Runner. Was totally lost on most of the rest. Last year went 5 for 8 on multi race wagers. This year 0-7. I know it isn't just bad capping and a bad day at the races! There was a hole in these races but I don't quite know what it was. Looking forward to it not being here next year. definitely sore loserly disappointed!
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11-06-2017, 01:21 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 222
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As always, I used Steve Caris’ Breeders Cup selections from American Turf Monthly. I popped Stormy Liberal in the 5Th plus a couple of exactas, but the real meat and potatoes came in Race 7. I caught the super and exacta with the win bet #5 for over $1000. Mr. Caris recommended exactas, but from his past, I was determined to roll with Superfectas. I too $600 into the two days and walked out with some nice change. Finally! I won big at the Breeders Cup by playing the way I should have. Even with the Caris list, I was always playing timid. Not this time and it paid off. I would suggest buying his list next year. It comes with a book on how to handicap the fields, but I pay for his list because I never seem to have enough time to do all of the work. So, Mr. Caris, if you’re reading this, thanks! Dinner is on me!:headbanger
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11-06-2017, 02:11 PM
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#14
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,077
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
I had a mediocre BC. But I can handle my mediocrity! I think there was something at play here though. There were some mediocre horses winning many of these races. In my last over 1,000 races my top contenders represent 20% of the entries and win 56% of the races. With marginal contenders 87%. Chaos factor at 13%.This weekend it was 37%. With marginal contenders 74%. Chaos factor at 26%. I had the 2 classic winners and the juvenile turf sprint. I couldn't bet many of the $6-8 winners other than Gun Runner. Was totally lost on most of the rest. Last year went 5 for 8 on multi race wagers. This year 0-7. I know it isn't just bad capping and a bad day at the races! There was a hole in these races but I don't quite know what it was. Looking forward to it not being here next year. definitely sore loserly disappointed!
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I disagree with exception of the horse he is bitching about. Bar of Gold was hard to take and maybe the Maiden but Chad loves that horse.
As for the rest I can make a case for all the others even though I didn't have a portion of them. In the 2 days I bet 10 races and posted it all somewhere on here. I hit 4 of them. Of the 6 I missed, those two I mentioned were really the only ones that were really out of line. But even though the juvenile winner wasn't a real shot in the dark off his Champagne run and its Chad Brown.
Stormy Liberal, Wuheida, Talisimatic and Battle of Midway ( the ones I missed) are not mediocre horses. That's the mistake I think people make. These are all really good horses. The chalk is in extremely deep to win in most of them.
Last edited by burnsy; 11-06-2017 at 02:15 PM.
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11-06-2017, 03:17 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsy
I disagree with exception of the horse he is bitching about. Bar of Gold was hard to take and maybe the Maiden but Chad loves that horse.
As for the rest I can make a case for all the others even though I didn't have a portion of them. In the 2 days I bet 10 races and posted it all somewhere on here. I hit 4 of them. Of the 6 I missed, those two I mentioned were really the only ones that were really out of line. But even though the juvenile winner wasn't a real shot in the dark off his Champagne run and its Chad Brown.
Stormy Liberal, Wuheida, Talisimatic and Battle of Midway ( the ones I missed) are not mediocre horses. That's the mistake I think people make. These are all really good horses. The chalk is in extremely deep to win in most of them.
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You can say whatever you want. Making a case? This is a BC so making a case is easy to do. Making a better case for many others than the case made for the winner in a certain race nullifies this half baked logic. For us to build a game on terra firma there must be a solid amount of predictability. If all year in over 1,000 races my top contenders yield 56% winners then it plummets to 37% for 2 days it's not just because I didn't do my homework. And I had 4 winners and 2 seconds from 11 bets. Really I only made 1 mistake by not getting involved in in race exotics on a 14-1 shot. But all told I felt like I was pot shotting. Races I didn't hit I could honestly say 100 more hours of handicapping I would not have made that case for the winner. Logical? Maybe. Likely? Not really IMO. My batting line for the cup looks good but my bottom line was weak.
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