 |
|
11-03-2017, 09:28 PM
|
#1
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,411
|
The Classic Falls Apart, Who Do You Like?
Arrogate is in the 1 hole, he's gotta go early. Collected is outside, he likes to be in front. He's gotta go early. Gun Runner has 4 Baffert horses that would love to race ride him and drift him wide or trap him. He has to control his own destiny and go to the front. West Coasts best races are his last 2 on the front. Am I missing something? One of my best hits in the Classic was Concern in a race like this. This race has a short stretch. Pavel likes to be behind the front runners in stalking position. I just think this race sets up for him. I don't see Gun Runner and Arrogate fading out of the money. So many question marks in this race and the pace figures to be hot. If they're all sucking wind the last 1/16th who do you like? I like Pavel.
|
|
|
|
11-03-2017, 09:31 PM
|
#2
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
|
Gunnervera
|
|
|
|
11-03-2017, 09:40 PM
|
#3
|
|
Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by bisket
Arrogate is in the 1 hole, he's gotta go early. Collected is outside, he likes to be in front. He's gotta go early. Gun Runner has 4 Baffert horses that would love to race ride him and drift him wide or trap him. He has to control his own destiny and go to the front. West Coasts best races are his last 2 on the front. Am I missing something? One of my best hits in the Classic was Concern in a race like this. This race has a short stretch. Pavel likes to be behind the front runners in stalking position. I just think this race sets up for him. I don't see Gun Runner and Arrogate fading out of the money. So many question marks in this race and the pace figures to be hot. If they're all sucking wind the last 1/16th who do you like? I like Pavel.
|
Arrogate is 5 lengths the best horse in this race when he shows up. The problem is he doesn't like Delmar and hasn't been himself since Dubai. West Coast is the key player IMO. He can rate or go to the front. Gun Runner has good form right now and wouldn't surprise but I don't like him. You may add Collected also but other than these 4 the others are racing for show.
__________________
Battle is the most magnificent competition in which a human being can indulge. It brings out all that is best; it removes all that is base. All men are afraid in battle. The coward is the one who lets his fear overcome his sense of duty. Duty is the essence of manhood.
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2017, 09:56 PM
|
#4
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,411
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jocko699
Arrogate is 5 lengths the best horse in this race when he shows up. The problem is he doesn't like Delmar and hasn't been himself since Dubai. West Coast is the key player IMO. He can rate or go to the front. Gun Runner has good form right now and wouldn't surprise but I don't like him. You may add Collected also but other than these 4 the others are racing for show.
|
I agree with your assessment on paper, but this is the first time this group has been together. I like Arrogate if he can lay back and not work to hard, but you can't bet that with a winning percentage. My problem with this race is that I can't stick my chest out and say, "he's gonna win" with confidence. When that's the case I go for the best probability for victory in relation to the odds.... Pavel
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2017, 10:09 PM
|
#5
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
|
Arrogate will not be on the lead, may not be close to it. If it falls apart arrogate just wins by more, if he is right.
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2017, 10:12 PM
|
#6
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
|
I am betting Collected, but I can totally see the scenario where the pace falls apart and Gunnavera lights up the board.
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2017, 10:15 PM
|
#7
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,540
|
Arrogate clearly isn't his former self...and Gun Runner is getting better with every start, IMO. That to me means that Gun Runner has this field at his mercy. Both Arrogate and Gun Runner will avoid any impending "speed-duel"...and they will both assume nice stalking positions, a few lengths off the lead. None of the expected pace-setters are good enough to steal this race...nor do any of the "closers" figure to run down Gun Runner and Arrogate, as far as I am concerned. I see Gun Runner taking control at the top of the final turn...and winning with condescending ease. With any kind of improvement over his last race, Arrogate figures to save second...to chalk up a decidedly unappetizing exacta payoff.
__________________
Live to play another day.
Last edited by thaskalos; 11-03-2017 at 10:16 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
11-03-2017, 10:20 PM
|
#8
|
|
Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by bisket
I agree with your assessment on paper, but this is the first time this group has been together. I like Arrogate if he can lay back and not work to hard, but you can't bet that with a winning percentage. My problem with this race is that I can't stick my chest out and say, "he's gonna win" with confidence. When that's the case I go for the best probability for victory in relation to the odds.... Pavel
|
Best of luck with Pavel. Reddam and O'Neil are never to be taken lightly. Fair odds I feel would be 40-1.
__________________
Battle is the most magnificent competition in which a human being can indulge. It brings out all that is best; it removes all that is base. All men are afraid in battle. The coward is the one who lets his fear overcome his sense of duty. Duty is the essence of manhood.
|
|
|
|
|
11-04-2017, 06:03 AM
|
#9
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
|
I'm having trouble getting past Thaskalos' analysis on Gun Runner. And Arrogate's training regimen has mirrored his last two races. IMO, he doesn't seem to want to be closer to the lead at 6f, where he needs to be. There seems to be a lack of coverage on Arrogate's training.
Going back to the OP's original question, if it falls apart; then if Collected shows any more improvement, and can deal with his outside post, then I give him a chance. West Coast is my alternate fall-apart choice.
I see the pace at :47.2- 1:11.3- 1:35.4- (?). should the fractions be 5 ticks faster, then it may fall apart., Or GR wins by daylight.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
|
|
|
|
|
11-04-2017, 06:53 AM
|
#10
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Location: st louis
Posts: 2,979
|
The only horse outside of the four favorites that I can see hitting the board is Pavel. The chances of two or more of the four favorites running a clunker is slim at best, so that eliminates everyone else. I am going with Arrogate, I think Baffert has him set to run a big one.
__________________
You will never achieve 100% if 99% is okay!
|
|
|
|
|
11-04-2017, 07:45 AM
|
#11
|
|
Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 313
|
If we see a total pace meltdown, I could see Mubtaahij picking up the pieces at a nice 20-1.
|
|
|
|
|
11-04-2017, 07:49 AM
|
#12
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
|
Mirroring many opinions, everybody else has to improve off their latest to beat Gun Runner. IMO he only loses with a bad trip or doesn't take to the track. I'll do some minor hedging but not much.
|
|
|
|
|
11-04-2017, 08:30 AM
|
#13
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 4,149
|
War Decree?
|
|
|
|
|
11-04-2017, 08:54 AM
|
#14
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
|
 and 
|
|
|
|
|
11-04-2017, 09:47 AM
|
#15
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,411
|
My marks against Gun Runner eventhough his form and ability at a mile are without question. He's raced at this distance a few times and come up short. He's outside and he has multiple runners from Bafferts barn that would jump at the chance to raceride and compromise him. He's got to be used early to gain favorable position, which only exacerbates his biggest weakness in this race. These are the fastest runners in the world at the Classic distance, and he's likely to be compromised. His trip is the most questionable in the race next to Arrogate's. Lol the day before the draw Baffert was quoted as saying he wanted Arrogate to run the race they were forced to run in the World Cup in November. One day later they're in the 1 hole... Although with 3 other runners from the barn that would not compromise him, Smith could still lay back and not have to circle the field.... I'm sure another jockey from the barn would give him racing room if it didn't compromise his runners shot to win the race. Smith is more likely to be able to work a trip.... all of this and my choice is 30-1... hmmm?  the chess match before the race is just as much fun as betting and watching the race.
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Thread Tools |
|
|
| Rate This Thread |
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
