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Old 10-08-2017, 05:30 PM   #16
Nutz and Boltz
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Hey Nutz

I just assumed he meant when both halves ran since if the other was scratched then there's no coupling for that race and it's just like singling that one horse!!!
Okay.
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Old 10-08-2017, 09:35 PM   #17
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BOTH HALVES RUNNING

I absolutely meant when both halves of the entry were running. So this sample is not too bad. I know that a flat bet, in the sample is quite decent. So Andy Serling may be wrong. In a big sample, if the flat bet is blind to all conditions, trainers etc, which this is, then it is a great bet. So thoughts are appreciated. You have to include the big payouts too. That is why a bigger sample is better, right?

- include 2 horse entries only, maybe include 2 and 2b and 3 and 3c but really that gets it out of hand.

-this is quite helpful.

-how hard is it to pull and clean the data?
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Old 10-09-2017, 12:51 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by paulbenny View Post
I absolutely meant when both halves of the entry were running. So this sample is not too bad. I know that a flat bet, in the sample is quite decent. So Andy Serling may be wrong. In a big sample, if the flat bet is blind to all conditions, trainers etc, which this is, then it is a great bet. So thoughts are appreciated. You have to include the big payouts too. That is why a bigger sample is better, right?

- include 2 horse entries only, maybe include 2 and 2b and 3 and 3c but really that gets it out of hand.

-this is quite helpful.

-how hard is it to pull and clean the data?
Hey Paul,

I have noticed that the coupled entries in Maiden races are giving you a 79% return per $2 win bet since May 28, 2016 at Belmont for the 1/1A coupling



I get 48 horses that were coupled so 24 betting interest which at $2 per win cost you $48 and you were actually ahead $38 or 79%

Let's keep an eye on this for the remainder of the Belmont season!!!

Thanks for bringing this up !!!
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Old 10-14-2017, 11:08 AM   #19
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Hey Paul,

I have noticed that the coupled entries in Maiden races are giving you a 79% return per $2 win bet since May 28, 2016 at Belmont for the 1/1A coupling



I get 48 horses that were coupled so 24 betting interest which at $2 per win cost you $48 and you were actually ahead $38 or 79%

Let's keep an eye on this for the remainder of the Belmont season!!!

Thanks for bringing this up !!!

There's a Maiden coupled entry in the 2nd race on the Turf in the 2nd race today at Belmont:

2nd race
#2 Now in a Drive
#2B Winning Element

Let's see if one of these can get the win today at Belmont provided that neither of them get scratched!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 10-14-2017 at 11:12 AM.
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Old 10-14-2017, 02:03 PM   #20
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There's a Maiden coupled entry in the 2nd race on the Turf in the 2nd race today at Belmont:

2nd race
#2 Now in a Drive
#2B Winning Element

Let's see if one of these can get the win today at Belmont provided that neither of them get scratched!!!
I forgot to include the 1/1A in the 2nd race
#1
Ninety One Assault

#1A
Strong Side


Let's see how they do in this race!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 10-14-2017 at 02:04 PM.
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Old 10-14-2017, 11:48 PM   #21
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I forgot to include the 1/1A in the 2nd race
#1
Ninety One Assault

#1A
Strong Side


Let's see how they do in this race!!!
Well #1Ninety One Assault came through and got the win today on the Turf at Belmont




So 25 betting interest at $2 per win cost you $50 and you are now ahead $52 or 102% on your money!!!

I'm not sure why this is happening but let's ride it until the wheels fall off for the remainder of the season at Belmont!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!
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Old 10-15-2017, 12:11 AM   #22
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Well #1Ninety One Assault came through and got the win today on the Turf at Belmont




So 25 betting interest at $2 per win cost you $50 and you are now ahead $52 or 102% on your money!!!

I'm not sure why this is happening but let's ride it until the wheels fall off for the remainder of the season at Belmont!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!
I will concentrate on the 1/1A coupled entries for Maidens on the Turf at Belmont!!!
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Old 10-19-2017, 11:57 AM   #23
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I will concentrate on the 1/1A coupled entries for Maidens on the Turf at Belmont!!!
There is another 1/1A Maiden coupling on the Turf today at Belmont:

1st race
#1 Unlockthepotential / 1A Wage Acceleration

Brown has them with another Economics/Finance angle let's see if he can get the win with one of these in the 1st race today provided neither of them are scratched!!!
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Old 10-20-2017, 01:47 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
There is another 1/1A Maiden coupling on the Turf today at Belmont:

1st race
#1 Unlockthepotential / 1A Wage Acceleration

Brown has them with another Economics/Finance angle let's see if he can get the win with one of these in the 1st race today provided neither of them are scratched!!!
Brown's coupled entry got the win yesterday it only paid $7 across the board but keeps the streak going at 3 in a row that have won as coupled entries in a Maiden race on the Turf at Belmont!!!



Coupled entries have been a real problem for me. I struggle with how to do the calculations without double counting the returns on investment

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!
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Old 10-22-2017, 10:43 PM   #25
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GENERAL COMMENT

I have been busy compiling my wagers and have not been on the board in a while. I am giving an non statistical view on this. I love this idea though. It seems like 2 for 1 in average field sizes that are shrinking coupled with randomness and a 15 or so percent average takeout makes logical sense to wager on in a high rebate shop environment.

1/8 is 12.5 but 2/9 is .22 and you start running numbers on averages with randomness and you are getting close. The driver to all of this was Serling saying entries are overbet. But how much? and really who ever ran these numbers. I am going to spend a lot of dedicated time on this and share the information when the temp starts to plunge. I am not a SA player to the positive and need to get better so research is important.
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Old 10-25-2017, 10:20 AM   #26
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Brown's coupled entry got the win yesterday it only paid $7 across the board but keeps the streak going at 3 in a row that have won as coupled entries in a Maiden race on the Turf at Belmont!!!



Coupled entries have been a real problem for me. I struggle with how to do the calculations without double counting the returns on investment

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!
There's another coupled entry in a Maiden race on the Turf at Belmont today in the 5th race:

5th race
#1 Curlins New Moon /1A Ambassador Jim

However, one of these may scratch as there was some rain yesterday and some races may come off the Turf

Let's see what happens if these stay together today at Belmont and possibly make it 4 wins in a row!!!
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Old 10-26-2017, 12:34 AM   #27
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There's another coupled entry in a Maiden race on the Turf at Belmont today in the 5th race:

5th race
#1 Curlins New Moon /1A Ambassador Jim

However, one of these may scratch as there was some rain yesterday and some races may come off the Turf

Let's see what happens if these stay together today at Belmont and possibly make it 4 wins in a row!!!
Well 1A Ambassador Jim came through with a win today on the Turf as half of the coupled entry to make it 4 wins in a row in this situation!!!



You are getting 100% on your money since May 28th, 2016 as it would have cost you $54 per $2 wager on the coupled entries!!!

I don't know why it's happening but let's hope it continues hopefully there will be one more before the season is over at Belmont!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!
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Old 10-27-2017, 10:12 AM   #28
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I missed a coupled entry on October 5th, 2017 it should be there now!!!



So there were 28 coupled entries at a cost of $56 per $2 win wager giving you $110.20 so slightly under 100% for the return to win in this situation

Last edited by TheOracle; 10-27-2017 at 10:13 AM.
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Old 10-27-2017, 10:18 AM   #29
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I missed a coupled entry on October 5th, 2017 it should be there now!!!



So there were 28 coupled entries at a cost of $56 per $2 win wager giving you $110.20 so slightly under 100% for the return to win in this situation

There is another Maiden coupled entry on the Turf at Belmont today in the 2nd race:

2nd race
#1 Givetheman a Cigar /1A Filius Scat

I doubt that this will win so I am hoping one half of the entry will scratch to preserve the win streak which is now at 3 in a row!!!
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Old 10-27-2017, 10:22 PM   #30
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There is another Maiden coupled entry on the Turf at Belmont today in the 2nd race:

2nd race
#1 Givetheman a Cigar /1A Filius Scat

I doubt that this will win so I am hoping one half of the entry will scratch to preserve the win streak which is now at 3 in a row!!!
Well #1 Givetheman a Cigar was scratched so this will not qualify for the study
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