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Old 02-24-2018, 12:10 PM   #1
Tom
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Hal's Hope

GP today - not that I plan on betting it, but it is an interesting race to handicap.

Irish War Cry - cuts back after a gruelling TP campaign. One turn mile might be just what he needs, but is he ready off a layoff?

Economic Model - 3 of his 4 wins at least have been at one turn routes but again, a layoff. Jose jumps ship to ride the and Irad gets this one for Chad. Jose think he has a better shot leaving?

Conquest Big E - proved he can win from either end of the field and is sharp right now. can he keep moving ahead?

Tower of Texas - why first time dirt after two stakes wins and a showing on turf? Not for me = pass.

Quitjote - has had at least one long shot first time routing, but I won't have anything on his next one = pass.

Malagacy - 2nd off the layoff, good runs at OP last year, lightly raced, Todd/Castellano, probably needs at least one more going long before he makes a move - still needs to pass last year's top

Guiseppe the Great - I don't think this one is going anywhere up from his current level - no big moves in this one = pass

Send it In - His good presser and SP ratings suggest to me he will do better at a flat mile than longer - big shot n here today.

I had mentioned before I uses CJ's adjusted times in Sartin formulae with good results, a I was asked for an example, so I did this race since it was a free one today.

FW = Factor W
EP = 2nd call pace
PR = PResser rating - average tof Turn time and 2nnd call
F3 = third fraction
SP = sustained pace, average of 2nd call and third fraction
HE = hidden energy, average of turn time and third fraction
E% = ratio of EP and F3

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Old 02-24-2018, 12:33 PM   #2
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Gave Malagacy a look, but that race this year was awful.

What was the health issue with this one? Seems dangerous


Irad has really been on top of the world lately. Horse figures to be fit.

Irish War Cry will probably be a bad value, but certainly has potential to win.


Conquest Big E seems like a bit of a value to contend.
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Old 02-24-2018, 12:35 PM   #3
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Can't look much past the in here...I think we might be having a consensus on this one already.

Would be surprising if he's anywhere near his 7/2 morning line.
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Old 02-24-2018, 12:39 PM   #4
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I'm an IWC fan, but am having a really hard time believing he'll go off as the favorite in his 1st time taking on elders after a 5 month layoff (which was likely needed).

IWC is a bit of an enigma, in that he essentially needs everything to go his way in order to run big races. Hard to argue with a number of his results, but he has also laid down some straight up duds like the FOY, KD, and Pa Derby. While I do enjoy watching him run when he runs well, he is an impossible wager in here at anywhere close to the 5/2 ML for me.

Economic Model and Send It In make the most sense to me, but Conquest Big E is a straight up miler, coming in off of what is arguably the best race of his career after a bad start. Gets top jock in Saez on board and if I can get anywhere near 8/1 I'll be happy.
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Old 02-24-2018, 12:44 PM   #5
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Can't look much past the in here...I think we might be having a consensus on this one already.

Would be surprising if he's anywhere near his 7/2 morning line.
Is it even possible that the won't be the post time favorite?
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Old 02-24-2018, 12:47 PM   #6
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I'm leaning to Conquest Big E because of the layoffs on the other main contenders. I like horse who run fast and often.
His GP mile race shows he can handle the track today. Track profile favors horses close up early and he will be right there.

If I get anything 5-1 or more I'm on him like monkeys on bananas.
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Old 02-24-2018, 01:15 PM   #7
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Pretty crappy race, too many ?s. I wouldn't play the 8 at less than 9/2 off that long layoff even though I know TP is good at that move. if I play horizontal wagers, maybe throw in 1 and Giuseppe. But I don't think I will play.
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Old 02-24-2018, 01:27 PM   #8
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I was on Malagacy but its tepid, Irish War Cry didnt draw well for a comeback race but I do think he is the best horse in here.
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Old 02-24-2018, 01:34 PM   #9
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I will be rooting for IWC but will have a hard time betting him at anything less than 5-1. I like Malagacy getting a tune up race last out and think a one turn mile will treat him well. It's almost impossible to throw the out, but drawing the outside post, running his first time at GP, and tackling a one turn mile I'll steer clear. Exacta box just so I have some rooting interest in the race.
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Old 02-24-2018, 02:29 PM   #10
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Hunching the and need one after long layoffs, play will be the . 2-3 at GP, 3-5 lifetime, second off, top connections, huge upside IMO. Can't find a clever way to play other than straight WIN. Open to ideas.

Good Luck
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Old 02-24-2018, 02:45 PM   #11
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Love the in here, even though I'm a big Motion fan.
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Old 02-24-2018, 03:30 PM   #12
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Too many of us???

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Old 02-24-2018, 05:53 PM   #13
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What a bunch of dipshits at GP!
SAME freaking owner as SA and they overlap the Gr3 Stake with a MC 3yoF race!

You can't fix stupid.


Terrible race - bad spill. Didn't get my odds so I did not have to bet that S-Hole of a track.

Winner looked very good on the CJ/Sartin velocity.
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Old 02-24-2018, 05:54 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
GP today - not that I plan on betting it, but it is an interesting race to handicap.

Irish War Cry - cuts back after a gruelling TP campaign. One turn mile might be just what he needs, but is he ready off a layoff?

Economic Model - 3 of his 4 wins at least have been at one turn routes but again, a layoff. Jose jumps ship to ride the and Irad gets this one for Chad. Jose think he has a better shot leaving?

Conquest Big E - proved he can win from either end of the field and is sharp right now. can he keep moving ahead?

Tower of Texas - why first time dirt after two stakes wins and a showing on turf? Not for me = pass.

Quitjote - has had at least one long shot first time routing, but I won't have anything on his next one = pass.

Malagacy - 2nd off the layoff, good runs at OP last year, lightly raced, Todd/Castellano, probably needs at least one more going long before he makes a move - still needs to pass last year's top

Guiseppe the Great - I don't think this one is going anywhere up from his current level - no big moves in this one = pass

Send it In - His good presser and SP ratings suggest to me he will do better at a flat mile than longer - big shot n here today.

I had mentioned before I uses CJ's adjusted times in Sartin formulae with good results, a I was asked for an example, so I did this race since it was a free one today.

FW = Factor W
EP = 2nd call pace
PR = PResser rating - average tof Turn time and 2nnd call
F3 = third fraction
SP = sustained pace, average of 2nd call and third fraction
HE = hidden energy, average of turn time and third fraction
E% = ratio of EP and F3
Not Bad Top in F3,SP, HE and the lowest %E. In one paceline and a bunch of seconds and thirds in another.

Acacia also had the winner and the exacta.
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Old 02-24-2018, 05:58 PM   #15
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How do we explain the fact that the Send It In went off at such high odds in such a small field?
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