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Old 09-16-2017, 10:12 PM   #1
VigorsTheGrey
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TimeformUS Early/ Late Pace Ratings

Longshot Always Thinking #14 in Laurels 7th 16Sep2017, showed a TimeformUS Late rating of 121....How high do these ratings go up...? Starting to really focus on the high Early or high Late ratings...What about these HIGH ratings...?
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Old 09-16-2017, 10:45 PM   #2
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Longshot Always Thinking #14 in Laurels 7th 16Sep2017, showed a TimeformUS Late rating of 121....How high do these ratings go up...? Starting to really focus on the high Early or high Late ratings...What about these HIGH ratings...?

Watching the fight tonight and just got back from the OU game. I'll give a very detailed answer to this tomorrow at some point.
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Old 09-16-2017, 11:00 PM   #3
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Watching the fight tonight and just got back from the OU game. I'll give a very detailed answer to this tomorrow at some point.
PS...You could have mentioned he won and paid $52
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Old 09-17-2017, 12:06 PM   #4
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I'll give this a shot...

The early and late ratings are not meant to be compared to each other. Early ratings should be compared to early ratings and late ratings to late ratings. The ratings are designed so that any horse can be compared to any other horse. Horses that have been racing on different surfaces and at very different distances can and often do meet up in the same race. Because of this, the ratings need to be able to differentiate between a horse that runs fast early at 5f on dirt and one that shows speed at 12f on turf. The same goes for late ratings. Finishing fast in a 6f dirt race isn't the same as doing so in a 9f turf race.

I don't keep pars or averages on these ratings...maybe I should. But theoretically, it should work like this. The example below is for older stakes horses. This is about what the average winner would run early and late.

Code:
Fur	Sur	Ear	Late
6	D	145	115
8	D	135	125
9	D	130	130
10	D	125	135
12	D	115	145

6	T	135	125
8	T	125	135
9	T	120	140
10	T	115	145
12	T	105	155
So, in the example Vigors cited, the 14 horse had a much higher late rating than the others because he had been closing well in turf routes and was cutting back to 6f. Obviously this doesn't always result in the horse being competitive. In this case, the pace was really fast and set up nicely for the closer. That isn't rare when the pace gets extreme, slow or fast. The winner often looks good on the early/late ratings.

Another horse in the same race, the 3, was a good example in the other direction. She had her most success running long on the lead in turf races. But cutting back to a sprint, her early speed rating was pretty low and placed her midpack. She couldn't keep up with the sprinters early, raced in midpack and pretty much stayed there all the way around.

It isn't easy to predict the extreme pace scenarios though. TimeformUS didn't indicate the pace was likely to be fast for the Laurel race yesterday. Sometimes we nail it, but of course not always.
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Old 09-17-2017, 12:45 PM   #5
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CJ,

"The ratings are designed so that any horse can be compared to any other horse. Horses that have been racing on different surfaces and at very different distances can and often do meet up in the same race."

Do the ratings travel to other tracks well...? Meaning, are they interchangeable between tracks....? I recently learned that DRF speed rating/ variant are track specific, that a 100-10 at one track is not equal to a 100-10 at another track...I sure this it what Beyer, in part, was addressing in creating the Beyer number...

It seems like each track should have a baseline surface coefficient established vis-a-vis other tracks...

So, for exampe, are the TimeformUS pace ratings of 75 early, 100 late at Del Mar equal to same figures at Belmont Park...?
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Old 09-17-2017, 12:48 PM   #6
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CJ,

"The ratings are designed so that any horse can be compared to any other horse. Horses that have been racing on different surfaces and at very different distances can and often do meet up in the same race."

Do the ratings travel to other tracks well...? Meaning, are they interchangeable between tracks....? I recently learned that DRF speed rating/ variant are track specific, that a 100-10 at one track is not equal to a 100-10 at another track...I sure this it what Beyer, in part, was addressing in creating the Beyer number...

It seems like each track should have a baseline surface coefficient established vis-a-vis other tracks...

So, for exampe, are the TimeformUS pace ratings of 75 early, 100 late at Del Mar equal to same figures at Belmont Park...?
Yes, no different than the speed figures. They travel. That is the toughest part and I work to keep that up to date. It isn't always perfect.
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Old 09-17-2017, 05:05 PM   #7
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One of the things I have been meaning to study, and if I actually knew anything about databasing this would be much easier but I wonder how many times say a horse who is a mid pack runner in the pace project who finds himself near the early lead ends up winning...then say a late closer who in the pace projector finds themselves in mid pack. I use these two as its a bit hidden to the public without pace figures. If a horse who can close doenst have to exert much energy to keep up it seems to me they have a much better chances of winning.

Now this can go the opposite, a closer who has been doing well as of late suddenly finds h imself with better horses, now his 80 early pace figure places him 15 lengths back rather than the 7 or 8 lengths he has had in his last few setups.

Identifying this is really hard but again I alway look for hidden things and this angle is a bit hidden from the normal player.
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