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Old 12-19-2017, 03:21 PM   #151
woodbinepmi
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Hong Kong at Happy Valley. December 20, 2017 Thirty-second race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 51 degrees Clear skies 0% of rain Wind: NNE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171220_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 1 Winfull Patrol (3-1): Is only 2 for 40 lifetime, and would rather run second and third. Trainer is at 6% with the rider hovering around 2%, has not run up to par for this race in his last 4 races while not racing on his proper lead.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 128 (Winners: 1st, 3rd & 4th)
Race 3 Charity Kingdom (20-1)

Race 172 (Winners: 2nd, 3rd, 13th & 14th, second: 4th & 8th)
Race 8 Super Lifeline (24-1)

Race 184 (Winners: 1st & 12th, second: 4th)
Race 5 Right Honourable (16-1)

Race 216 (Winners: 2nd & 3rd, second: 10th)
Race 5 Celestial Nova (23-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Wah May Baby (15-1)
Race 5 Sparkling Sword (17-1)
Race 7 Victory Marvel (12-1)

Last race watch list horse:
Race 6 Ho Ho Feel (28-1): Won two races back going 1800 metres at the Valley and then came back with a decent effort after having a little trouble at the break at Sha Tin going two turns which is probably a little too far for him to go. Drew the 11 post with the short run to the first turn, took a nice leap out of the gate at the start conceding at least a length to the field, it really didn’t compromise his running position though what with him being a dead closer. Was unable to find the rail in the first turn so raced 3 wide because Leung on Chater Legend wasn’t allowed to move over himself, made a slight move going up the hill on the backside heading into the turn for home, had a slight change of course at the 250 metre mark, lacked the ample kick home to catch the easy winner.


Past watch list runners:
Race 3 Megatron (6-1)
Race 8 House Of Fun (5-2)

Key Plays:
Race 5 Ever Laugh (2-1)
Race 6 Ho Ho Feel (28-1)

Longshots:
Race 4 Numero Uno (25-1)
Race 6 Hay Run (11-1)
Race 8 Mr Genuine (9-1)
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Old 12-22-2017, 04:57 PM   #152
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Hong Kong at Sha Tin. December 23, 2017 Thirty-third race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 70 degrees Partly Cloudy 0% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “A+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171223_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 3 Sparkling Dragon (6-5): Was able to get an easy lead and hold off a couple nice horses in Gallant Return (60) and Win Beauty Win (62) but Sam had to really get into him all the way down the lane and with him not getting to his proper lead, that may get up and bite him against Class 3 runners next out.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *778 (Winners: 5th & 8th, second: 1st & 9th)
Race 7 Super Lucky (56-1)

Race 184 (Winners: 1st, 12th & 13th, second: 4th)
Race 2 Regency Darling (11-1)
Race 5 Beautiful Day (8-1)

Race 185 (Winners: 1st & 3rd, second: 5th & 8th)
Race 2 Eighty Eighty (1-2)

Race 216 (Winners: 2nd & 3rd, second: 10th)
Race 5 Marqula (44-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 Regency Darling (11-1)
Race 6 Hot King Prawn (2-5)
Race 7 Happy Surveys (19-1)
Race 9 Victory Boys (11-1)
Race 10 Happy Journey (70-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 Eighty Eighty (1-2): One of So’s heavily bet first time starters who drew the 12 hole with the short run to the turn at the 1200 metres distance. Was bumped pretty hard at the start by the outside runner Sincere Dragon, then rushed up near the front runners without being asked by Moreira, raced 4 wide in the turn under a strangle hold, all the while the eventual winner was able to get an uncontested early lead and setting a very slow middle section. Ran even thru the lane while not being able to make up the ground on the winner, Moreira wrapped up on him at the 150 metres mark.

Race 7 Turf Sprint (5-1): He doesn’t have the best record on the backside but does look to be rounding into top form and after running second to Hot King Prawn (89) may be sitting on it now. Beat the rest of the field with ease being 2 ¾ lengths in front of the third place runner. Figure came back a 102 which is almost a full length fast than par for Class 3 races.

Race 9 Exultant (1-1): In his second race at HKJC after he ran a game 5th only losing by 2 lengths after encountering trouble to Western Express (112) in his debut, caught another bear in Fifty Fifty (98). Was caught a little flat footed at the start sending him sideways into Romantic Touch, settled around seven lengths in the back by himself with a quick pace to run at, moved to the 6 path entering the stretch really took off at the 300 metre mark switched back to his wrong lead at the 170 mark but continued to close on the big favourite only to lose by a half-length, galloped out past the winner soon after the wire.

Past watch list runner:
Race 3 Gallant Return (5-1) Race 193

Key Play:
Race 5 Better Choice (2-1)
Race 10 Calculation (4-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 Regency Darling (11-1)
Race 6 Big Time Baby (20-1)
Race 10 Ultimate Glory (9-1)
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Old 12-24-2017, 09:07 PM   #153
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 20, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 209

Notes for the day:
Will avoid all the runners from a poor Class 5 field in the first, Wonderful Tiger’s (50) race can be totally disregarded after he broke 5 lengths slow to the field in the second. Unlike the first the Class 4 going long in the third was extremely tough for that class with a final time to prove it. Cheerfuljet (67) picked up 11 points off his effort and might be able to compete soon against Class 3 runners as long as it’s at the Valley. Right Honourable (64) who came out of the key race 184 got a perfect trip and got up in time to pay key race players $69.90 to win. Will stay away from Rule Thee (67) next time out, was able to get up after travelling wide and just pass the leaders at the wire in a slow final time for 11 furlongs while getting a 15 pounds allowance to the second place finisher Rickfield (81). The final looked like a Sha Tin Class 2 race, a lot of nice runners in there, the chalk Fantastic Eight (84) was outrun on the backside and just didn’t have the final kick he needed.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 8 #5 Born In China (103): Went off at 6-1 in the tough Class 2 final while breaking from the 9 gate with the short run to the mini turn at 6 furlongs. Was bumped pretty good by House Of Fun soon after the start and forced back with Wah May Friend trying to get over with the short run to the turn which put this one in the rear of the field, not where he wants to be. Became rank at the 450 metre mark looking for room with full of run, moved to the seven path in the stretch but had to wait for room, then started a nice run to the wire that was around 200 metres long but was unable to catch the winner Archippus (107) who had a much easier trip. Hopefully Lui will keep him running at the downtown track.

Horses to avoid next out:
Anything out of the 1st Race (282)

Speed Figures:
1st (282): 85
2nd (283): 98
3rd (284): +99
4th (285): 99
5th (286): 97
6th (287): 97
7th (288): 98
8th (289): 108

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
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Old 12-25-2017, 11:15 PM   #154
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 23, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: 229

Notes for the day:
Eighty Eighty (55) in the second was unlucky to lose out on a bob to Bossiee (55), it was not the best ride given by Nash, look for Moreira back up next time after his suspension is over. The final time in the Griffin Trophy came back a little slow most likely due to the slow early pace. Win Beauty Win (71) will have to take the mandatory rise to Class 3 next time, but should be able to handle the climb. Better Choice (61) picked up a rating point in the slow Class 4 in the 5th race getting beat by the first time starter out of the Lee barn, now has to move up to Class 3 where it will be much tougher, will most likely avoid most out of that race in the future. Hot King Prawn (98) was very fortunate in only picking up 9 points which will keep him away from Class 1 runners which most of the time is filled with good stakes runners, Size is going to have to try him around the turn or he’s going to run out of races to run him in. Will give Water Diviner (83) a closer look next time after a nice run, he had been away since last March where he had been on the Vet’s list with cuts on his hind legs after acting up in the paddock in which he was scratched in November. Big number by Victory Machine (68) after getting a perfect trip and only carrying 108 pounds with the bug-boy Poon aboard. Consort (84) looks to have finally found his groove, made a huge run late after getting into trouble early then became rank running just below par for Class 2 races, as long as he doesn’t draw Exultant (102) again. The final race come back very competitive, 6 runners ran faster than par, which is very rare on the turf.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 10 #2 Apollo’s Choice (80): Has seem to have really found his form so far this year, had finished a game 3rd only losing by ¾ length to Happy Agility (83) while breaking from the 13 hole in his last. Had a much better draw for this race getting the 4 post, took a slight leap out of the gate then settled mid-pack on the rail, was looking for room to get thru on the rail early in the stretch but had change those plans when Experto Crede (63) beat him to the hole. Then was boxed in when the eventual winner California Joy (81) beat him to the other opening, was hand ridden to the wire only to lose out by ¾ length in a fast Class 3 race.

Race 10 #13 Sacred Ibis (64): In his first try against Class 3 runners after 2 straight wins in the lower division. Drew an outside post (11) and was a length slow out of the gate, raced around 7 lengths off the pace down the backside, moved to the outside in the stretch and took off when asked to run by Teetan just to miss by a head in a fast race for the class, galloped out well past the winner after the wire.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 1 #8 Sum Win Dragon (57): Won a slow Class 4 going long after getting a perfect trip in beating a mediocre field.

Anything out of Race 5 (294)

Speed Figures:
1st (290): 94
2nd (291): 96 ?
3rd (292): -98
4th (293): +90
5th (294): 92
6th (295): -105
7th (296): 104
8th (297): 102
9th (298): 106
10th (299): 102

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
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Old 12-26-2017, 05:47 PM   #155
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Hong Kong at Happy Valley. December 27, 2017 Thirty-fourth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 63 degrees partly cloudy 10 % of rain Wind: E 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171227_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 8 California Whip (3-1): Is in a tough Class 2 for Happy Valley, with a first time starter for John Size from Ireland with Moreira on board. His only win in Hong Kong was on the dirt and has a tendency to not get by leaders in the stretch.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 086 (Winners: 2nd & 6th, second: 7th)
Race 4 Buddy Bundy (22-1)

Race 147 (Winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 4th & 5th)
Race 1 Regency Honey (14-1)

Race 173 (Winners: 4th & 12th, second: 5th)
Race 1 My Gift (7-1)

Race 209 (Winners: 1st & 7th, second: 6th)
Race 2 Treasure And Gold (7-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 Agiaal (13-1)
Race 5 Bold Elegance (5-2)
Race 7 Right Call (11-1)

Last race watch list horse:
Race 6 Money Boy (2-1): Is now only 1 for 20 in his Hong Kong record for Size, but does seem to prefer Happy Valley to Sha Tin. Was rubbed on immediately out of the gate and was in a great position waiting right behind the front runners heading into the turn, when he entered the stretch he carried himself out a little more than Moreira wanted and allowed General Iron (71) to get up under him and put Money Boy in a box having to wait for room, at the 180 mark Moreira shifted out and closed well only to lose by a short head to a 45-1 winner.

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Plays:
Race 5 Planet Star (9-2)
Race 6 Money Boy (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 3 Money Winner (16-1)
Race 5 Beauty Connection (10-1)
Race 6 Charity Glory (9-1)
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Old 12-29-2017, 11:32 PM   #156
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 27, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 174, 210 & 224

Notes for the day:
When the races were being run I started thinking that there was a rail bias in action but after inspecting the races more closely after the battle was over, I came to the conclusion that there wasn’t one. It came be very detrimental to the bankroll if you make a judgement in the heat of a race card of a bias but in reality you may be just hoping for one to be there. In the first Audacity (40) ran into some serious trouble deep in the stretch, almost enough to be put on the watch list, but I try not to put Class 5 runners on it due to their inconsistent race results. He only picked up 1 point which will keep him at the bottom level for his next try. Race 2 was just SLOW, nothing more to say about it. The chalk in the 3rd Destin (47) was beaten by a much better trip and a significant weight allowance, willing to overlook this race and take a closer look next time. Speedy king (58) in the fourth went off as the 2-1 favourite after a short break was a length slow out of the gate and forced wide in the turn while chasing the easy winner Mr Right (67) which most times spells doom going 5 furlongs. Lunar Zephyr (49) in that same race was a quick pull-up after in the gallop out. Energetic Class (62) picked up two points which will put him up into Class 3 after being outrun by the longshot Born Dragon (52) who had a 13 pound advantage. Circuit King (67) has now ran in two straight fast races for their classes, will probably pick up 4 pounds unless Cruz takes Teetan off for a bug, but looks to have really found his form now. Imperial Gallant (80) looked to have plenty in the tank crossing the line in a quick Class 3 race, a VERY impressive turn of foot at the top of the lane and ran away from the rest in just a matter of few strides, should repeat next time against the same. Will tread lightly with Singapore Sling (93) next time, ran a final number that is par for the class but Berry had to beat on him for the last 150 metres just to get up.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 7 #10 Generous Heart (65): Was unlucky to draw the 12 hole in the route in his return to the turf after his try on the dirt at Sha Tin, threw his head at the start sending him to the rear soon afterwards. Was asked entering the final turn at the same time the eventual winner was starting his run going wide Moreira on board, but wasn’t allowed to extend himself forward due to having to wait for Ishvara in front of him, was totally boxed in on the rail while Moreira was running away from the field, Purton never asked him to run in the stretch.

Race 8 #5 Insayshable (89): Showed a very nice run in his debut with Moreira on for the John Size barn, he looks to want to go further than 1650 so look for him to pop up at Sha Tin going 1800 or even 2000. Was a little rank early on and was just outrun by Singapore Sling but quickly galloped past him after the wire.

Horses to avoid next out:
Everything out of Race 2 (301)

Race 3 #9 Don’t Miss (52): Got a perfect trip and beat the favourite who ran into serious trouble while getting the big weight allowance.

Speed Figures:
1st (300): +91
2nd (301): -88#
3rd (302): -95
4th (303): 95
5th (304): 95
6th (305): 103
7th (306): 102
8th (307): -104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!
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Old 12-31-2017, 03:58 PM   #157
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Hong Kong at Sha Tin. January 1, 2018 Thirty-fifth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 66 degrees Partly Cloudy 0% of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 15 mph.

Post time: 11.30pm ET, 8.30pm PT. Rail: Course “B+2”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180101_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 5 Godspeed (7-2): Is the luke warm chalk early in the betting ran a very disappointing 9th as the favourite without visual reasoning why on the poor effort. Not all that keen on a trainer at 5 for 143 would be able to figure it out.

Race 10 Beat The Clock (9-5): He will most likely end up being a real nice runner but will try and beat him in his first try against graded horses, and there are some in here, with Helene Paragon, Beauty Only, peniaphobia and Lucky Year. Asking a lot out of him at that price.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *666 (Winners: 5th, 7th & 9th, second: 2nd)
Race 2 Dazzle Winner (74-1)

Race 210 (Winners: 5th & 6th, second: 10th)
Race 2 Le Panache (13-1)

Race 224 (Winners: 1st, 3rd & 6th)
Race 8 Healthy Joyful (13-1)
Race 11 Kingsfield (24-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 9 Mambo Rock (23-1)
Race 10 Dashing Fellow (20-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 6 Super Missile (4-5): Was bet down as a huge favourite after his barrier trial when he ran with Mr. Stunning (130) and Beat The Clock (99), he stumbled out of the gate and was caught up in the middle of the pack, followed the eventual winner thru the heard showing nice composer for a first time starter, was asked only slightly by Purton near the wire, look for him to go a little further in his next race.

Race 10 Dundonnell (13-1): In his first race since running in Dubai caught a real nice field for his return. Broke extremely slow out of the gate conceding at least two lengths to the field, was a little rank on the backside, looked full of run entering the stretch while being blocked found room at the 280 mark and pretty much ran evenly afterwards, nice effort for being off since last March in the desert. Hopefully Lor will keep him in this class and not raise him back in the Graded ranks again, has spent most of his career in over his head.

Race 11 Jing Jing Win (9-1): Was very unlucky at the draw getting the outside post 14 in the short run to the turn going 1200, broke well enough and was taken back by Purton to try and save as much ground as possible. Became rank or had to check up heading into the turn (kind of hard to tell which on the replays), then began climbing in the turn going 2 wide moved to the 6 path in the straighten up finished well only to get beat by a length to Wah May Friend (104) who had just dropped down from a Class 1 race where he had lost by a nose to Western Express (122).

Past watch list runners:
Race 2 Brilliant Monkees (2-1)
Race 6 Jolly Bountiful (4-1)

Key Plays:
Race 2 Winning Controller (4-1)
Race 6 Supper Missile (4-5)
Race 9 Circuit Hassler (5-2)

Longshots:
Race 4 Golden Glory (10-1)
Race 6 Royal Chocolate (13-1)
Race 8 Healthy Joyful (13-1)
Race 8 Go Beauty Go (12-1)
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Old 01-03-2018, 01:34 PM   #158
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 1, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 199

Notes for the day:
First two races were very weak Class 5 races and the final times proved it. In the second Moreira’s mount Brilliant Monkeys (26) was a quick pull up in the gallop out, Winning Controller (38) showed no heart in his effort, one of these days I will learn to quit making prime plays on Class 5 runners. The winner in the third Wushu Champion (60) was all out to catch the tiring leader Brilliant Dream (53) at the wire and as soon as he hit the line he was done, was passed by at half the field in the gallop out, big avoid next time. Big move in the stretch after going wide in the turn by Magic Success (52) in the fourth, Boudot pretty much wrapped up on him for the last 60 metres, look for him to go a little longer next time. Desmios (58) was a quick pull up in the fifth as was Speedy Wally (53) in the 5th. Super Missile (60) encountered enough trouble while being blocked in the stretch for most inexperienced runners to throw in the towel but he closed well when the room finally became available, his final time wasn’t all that quick which may be just a result of the trip but did look tired after the line, will need a weak field next time for me to play him again. Big number by Infinity Endeavour (73) in the 7th with him picking up 7 points which will most likely put him in at 126 pounds next race which shouldn’t be a problem, as with Infinity in the seventh Conte (78) picked up 9 points. He won that for fun, will take a very Healthy Joyful (80) next time out ran a very nice race while never really challenging Conte but handled the rest of the field pretty easily running a figure above par for the class. In the Chinese Challenge Cup both Fifty Fifty (111) and Beat The Clock (110) ran very impressive races while getting the weight allowance, of the old guards in that race only Helene Paragon (126) showed any kind of moxie against the youngsters. On a personal note thank goodness for Kingsfield (87) in the last for saving my day, coming out of the key race 224 held on paying $47 to win, it was a good day for key race horses with a win, a second and a third out of four runners on the day.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 7 #7 Affluence Start (72): In only his third start where he ran nicely in his maiden race and then threw in a clunker going 7 furlongs at Sha Tin. Broke well from the 2 gate and settled mid-pack while chasing a quick early pace, moved out to the 7 path in the stretch but was unable to catch the easy winner Infinity Endeavor (73) but he did run even with him the length of the entire stretch, galloped out well past the rest of the field after the race and should have plenty in the tank after that effort.

Race 11 #4 Lockheed (88): In only his second race in Hong Kong where he was bet down as the chalk in both tries, and was able to retain the services of Moreira again. Was bumped slightly leaving the gate, nothing all that significant though, settled about three lengths off a slow pace while looking uncomfortable in his stride down the backside. Moved closer to the leaders entering the stretch while racing on the rail, had to wait for room early in the stretch then when it did become available a tiring front runner Eastern Express (94) drifted out at the 150 metre mark forcing Moreira to take up on him while at the same time the eventual winner Kingfield (87) was able to advantage of the situation and get away from Lockheed, Moreira wrapped up on him afterwards.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 #3 Wushu Champion (60): Was all out to catch a tired leader at the wire and didn’t gallop out all that well, races probably took too much out of him in his first races since last July, look for a bounce next time out.

Speed Figures:
1st (308): 88
2nd (309): 87
3rd (310): 94
4th (311): 98
5th (312): +97
6th (313): 91
7th (314): +103#
8th (315): 106
9th (316): 99
10th (317): 111
11th (318): -101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
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Old 01-06-2018, 12:49 PM   #159
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Hong Kong at Sha Tin. January 7, 2018 Thirty-sixth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 68 degrees Light rain Wind: E 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 1.15am ET, 10.15pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180107_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 6 Midnite Promise (7-2): Is 1 for 34 lifetime in Hong Kong, 1 for 21 in Class 4 races and draws the 10 hole. Does have the services of Moreira for Lor who are hitting at 50% together, and they will play him because of the Brazilian on board but I will try and beat him at that price.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 093 (Winners: 4th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 1 Wish Come True (45-1)

Race 229 (Winners: 2nd & 6th, second: 4th)
Race 2 Sempiternal (7-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 9 Happy Journey (34-1)
Race 10 Solar Hei Hei (9-1)

High percentage Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 5 Compassion Star (5-2)
Race 6 Midnite Promise (7-2)
Race 9 Simply Brilliant (2-1)

Horses that have an appreciation for Sha Tin:
Race 7 House Of Fun (7-5)
Race 10 Tine To Celebrate (7-2)

Distance specialists:
Race 4 Morethanlucky (1-1)
Race 4 Razor Quest (13-1)
Race 7 Premiere (2-1)

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horse:
Race 5 Noble Steed (9-5): In his second career race after he had closed to run a good third behind Sparkling Dragon (66) in his debut. In here was bounced around at the start nothing to compromise his race but still enough that it will sometimes affect young runners to take their minds off the issue, but it didn’t seem to bother him. Settled mid-pack chasing a front runner who eventually was eased in the lane, was in tight three wide entering the stretch and quickly accelerated when asked by Prebble and drew away from a nice Class 4 field under a hand ride with his ears picked straight up. Picked up 8 points which will allow him to run again in Class 4 and the extra 8 pounds shouldn’t be an issue.

Past watch list runner:
Race 9 Simply Brilliant (2-1)

Key Plays:
Race 5 Noble Steed (9-5)
Race 6 King’s Man (6-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 Five Stars Agent (12-1)
Race 8 Sir Redalot (11-1)
Race 10 Solar Hei Hei (9-1)
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Old 01-06-2018, 01:21 PM   #160
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F.Y.I. First post time tonight is 12am Eastern and 9pm West Coast.
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Old 01-08-2018, 08:01 PM   #161
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 7, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 201, 223, 241 & 255

Notes for the day:
Most of the money in the first was placed on the first time starters going five furlongs, halfway thru the race all hell broke loose. At the 400 metre mark Leung took People’s Champion (52) to the outside looking for room to run but in so doing too out Ray’s Call (48) pushing him out into the middle of the track, then Refined Treasure (52) almost went down at the 190 mark when Moreira on Noble Delight (52) was forced out by Golden Dash (60) who drifted out just a bit. Sempiternal (45) was taking a drop in class and was exiting out of a key race (229) and drew away from the field at the top of the lane paying $17.40. Charter Thunder (50) used the 15 lbs. weight allowance to hold off Gran Master (62) who picks up the 2 rating points to move up to Class 3 races. Morethanlucky (82) picks up 8 points after easily defeating an average Class 3 field, his speed figures are a little light for Class 2 so will sit and see how he handles the hike better betting on him. In the 5th Lucky Time (57) was stuck on the rail and was all covered up, Clipperton eventually just wrapped up and conceded the race to others, hopefully he’ll get a draw more in the middle next time out. Another runner out of that race to give another look to is Good For You (57), he ran into a little trouble early on then was forced wide in the turn, a total throw out. King;s Man (58) had no excuse for not winning was in a perfect position entering the stretch while catching a favourite who has shown a complacency in winning, but showed no heart and threw the anchor in pretty easily, in that same race Berry gave Mighty Boy (54) a real poor ride, rushing him into a fast pace entering the turn three wide, not good. Five furlong specialist Premiere (110) waited for the lone front runner to tire and scooted away from the rest without much effort, the most intriguing event of that race was after the race. A lot of times the jockeys like to stand up and salute the crowd as they pass the line, when Teetan did that Premiere drifted out right in front of Fabulous One (102) with Lai having to check him up to avoid him from clipping heels, Teetan was reprimanded for the grand standing. In the 8th the beaten favourite Amazing Star (62) was a very quick pull up after the race, love playing against those types next time they run. In the ninth Purton cost Simply Brilliant (80) the win, after the eventual winner Ping Hai Star (87) took a left turn right out of the gate and surrendered at least 4 lengths to the field. Purton looked to have his race wrapped up without noticing Moreira getting thru on the inside after Zach had put the stick away, by the time he realized what was happening he couldn’t catch up. Doctor Geoff (88) almost won the finale when he continued to shy from the stick of Teetan and at the wire was against the outside rail, he will have to run in a barrier trial before racing again.

Horse to watch for next out list:
Race 1 #6 Refined Treasure (52): Was heavily bet in his first time out for the Millard barn, was unlucky in the draw getting the 2 hole which is an outside post in the 5 furlong straight races. Broke a little slow, and then settled mid-pack became a little rank at the 600 metre mark when in company, had to take up slightly when Moreira’s mount Nolble Delight drifted in. Then bumped Hot Hot Pepper very hard at the 250 mark, and when the eventual winner drifted out back into Noble Delight he came out and almost took Refined Treasure down when they clipped heals, after that there was nothing left but for Teetan to wrap up and thank the racing Gods he didn’t go down. After the race a Vet inspection found no significant damage to him.

Horse to avoid next out:
Race 8 #12 Amazing Star (62): As stated earlier, he was a quick pull up in the gallop out.

Speed Figures:
1st (319): 96
2nd (320): +93
3rd (321): +95
4th (322): -100
5th (323): -94#
6th (324): +98
7th (325): 110
8th (326): 99
9th (327): +103
10th (328): +100

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
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Old 01-09-2018, 08:08 PM   #162
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Hong Kong at Happy Valley. January 10, 2018 Thirty-seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 52 degrees Cloudy 0% of rain Wind: NNE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 6.15am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180110_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 Actuariat (3-1): Winless after 24 races in Hong Kong, may win but not with my money.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 147 (Winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 4th & 5th)
Race 1 Carry To Win (33-1)

Race 255 (Winners: 7th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 3 Alcazar (58-1)
Race 8 Key Witness (23-1)

Race 241 (Winners: 1st & 4th, second: 3rd)
Race 5 Encore Boy (5-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 7 Ten Flames (19-1)

High percentage Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 7 Dr Win Win (9-2)

Horses that have an appreciation for Happy Valley:
Race 6 Packing Dragon (22-1)
Race 8 Blocker Dee (8-1)

Distance specialists:
Race 5 Moment Of Power (6-1)
Race 6 Dinozzo (9-1)
Race 8 Perpetual Joyance (6-1)

Class specialists:
None

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runner:
Race 5 Money Boy (5-1)

Key Plays:
Race 6 Eagle Way (8-1)
Race 7 Mister Monte (2-1)
Race 8 Mr Genuine (3-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 Rugby Diamond (9-1)
Race 3 Love Chunghwa (29-1)
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Old 01-11-2018, 05:49 PM   #163
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 10, 2018
Track: Happy Valley
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: None

Notes for the day:
Tough beat in the first for us Key Race players, the chalk beat us by on a head bob at 34-1! In that same race King’s Steed (18) ran a typical Class 5 race, was rank early and became disinterested afterwards, very inconsistent class of horses. Exceptional Desire’s (63) earned him enough points to rate out of Class 4 and after a hard race the rise will probably be a little more for him to handle. I don’t put down too many bad ride notes on Moreira’s trips, but did in the third, Nashashuk (50) was bet down in his first race since June mostly due to the presence of the Brazilian, he became rank early on and he just wouldn’t settle down for him and looked like he was interested in fighting Moreira than running, The Show (42) put in a decent effort after travelling wide into the stretch after chasing a slow pace by a big winner. Race 4 Pearl Warm Warm (46) will be looked at very closely next time he runs, was full of run entering the stretch but when he moved down to the rail for room he was totally blocked without anywhere to accelerate and Leung pretty much put him away for the last 100 metres. Race 5 has come back a little tougher than your normal Class 3 affair at the Valley, even with the highest ranked horse at 72 going into a 80-60 rating race. Winner Money Boy (74) ran a figure good enough to compete against Class 2 runners but will be able and stay in the lower class for his next race. Race 6 Group 3 route, Eagle Way (116) just outclassed that field, hopefully Packing Dragon (94) will drop back into a condition that he’s more comfortable with like Class 2, broke poorly and then had to go three wide in the first turn, that right there is enough to run the line thru that race. Doyeni (95) had trouble at the start but looked like he didn’t want any part of running, at one point I thought he was going to pull a Pakistan Star on us and stop running all together, after some STRONG urging by Prebble he closed all well in the lane, very confusing run by him. Something has to be wrong with Dr Win Win (78) ran very poorly and was a very quick pull up after the race, will check on the Vet’s list on him next time he goes out. Very impressive win by Winning Faith (74) after he walked out the gate conceding at least 2 lengths to the field and following a slow pace made a huge run in the lane making the others look like pony horses, lots left in the tank on the observation, ears were pricked straight up crossing the line. In the finale Purton looked like he may have moved Mr Genuine (94) a little too early, getting caught at the wire by the distance specialist Perpetual Joyance (93), Super Fluke (87) closed well in the stretch but raced a little too far back. Sea Jade (91) was high weight in there but couldn’t keep up with the pace and was not asked in the stretch and pulled up soon after the wire.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 2 #6 Sharpmind (48): Is in top form at the moment with a win and two seconds in his last three races but was a victim of a bad draw and was taken to the back of the field to avoid the short turn after the break. Race 3 wide in the turn dead last, moved to the middle of the track, and took off when asked only to miss by a length against the Moreira ride on Exceptional Desire (63).

Race 6 #9 Citron Spirit (93): In his first try at Graded company was bet down to 5-1, was bumped out of the gate but looked not to be of any concern just a simple racing incident. Raced three lengths off the leaders in a slow early pace 2 wide in the first turn, was on par with the classier winner Eagle Way (116) entering the stretch, but when straightened up was stuck behind Packing Dragon (94) and when he tried to pass him Dinozzo (100) drifted in and forced Schofield to check him up and totally took him out of the race. After that incident Chad gave the complementary ride thru not to get into trouble, galloped out well and hopefully will return to Class 2 next out.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 7 #2 Dr Win Win (78): As stated earlier he was a 3-1 second choice that ran last and pulled up quickly.

Speed Figures:
1st (329): 90
2nd (330): 97 ?
3rd (331): -96
4th (332): -95
5th (333): 104
6th (334): -105
7th (335): -100
8th (336): 104

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
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Old 01-12-2018, 07:43 PM   #164
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Hong Kong at Sha Tin. January 13, 2018 Thirty-eighth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 60 degrees sunny 0% of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 12am ET, 9pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20180113_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 201 (Winners: 1st & 4th, second: 6th & 12th)
Race 8 Strathspey (5-2)

Race 241 (Winners: 1st & 4th, second: 3rd)
Race 3 Dragon Pioneer (12-1)
Race 9 Happy Meteor (10-1)

Race 255 (Winners: 7th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 9 Golden Sun (12-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Smart Declaration (7-1)
Race 4 Mambo Rock (10-1)

Trainer/Jockey winning combos:
Race 5 Lean Perfection (7-2)
Race 10 Turin Redstar (5-2)

Horses for courses:
Race 7 People’s Knight (5-1)
Race 7 Sunny Win (10-1)
Race 9 Pick Number One (7-5)

Distance specialists:
None

Class specialists:
Race 10 Star Majestic (22-1)

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 3 Turf Sprint (5-1)
Race 7 Classic Emperor (9-5)

Key Plays:
Race 2 Golden Sleep (15-1)
Race 8 Hay Run (8-1)

Longshots:
Race 10 Flying Lover (46-1)
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Old 01-15-2018, 05:00 PM   #165
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: January 13, 2018
Track: Sha Tin
Track Bias: None
Races that have become Key Races after today’s results: 202 & 272

Notes for the day:
While the races were going on, it looked like there was a closer’s bias but after a closer inspection of the results and how the races shaped I made a judgement call that there was no bias. The first was a weak field of Class 5 runners even with the final time being just a little above par, winner G-One Union (40) paid $56 to win, maybe the only one to watch for is Kwaichung Brothers (39) was making a winning move at the 200 metre mark by splitting two runners but had to check up when he got into the hole. In the 2nd both Golden Sleep (59) and Presidentialparamount (48) both encountered enough trouble to total excuse their races, Presidentialparamount’s speed figures may not be fast enough to win until he gets down to Class 5 though. Turf Sprint (79) was covered up with no running room in the 5 furlong sprint Class 3 third, the betting favourite Beauty Energy (76) first time starter for So ridden by Purton ran a very poor race but will give another chance when he gets to go further, his two wins in England were at the longer distance 8 furlongs. Plenty of trouble in the 4th, Super Chic (77), Sharp Sailor (75) and Gorgeous Again (60) were effected at the start when Rule Thee (67) broke outward and the winner Giant Turtle (74) breaking in, the winner showed plenty of heart not giving it up in the lane while tiring and going back off his proper lead at the 140 metres. Race 5 Sunny Power (52) was very green in the lane after racing wide into the stretch but continued to close while under a heavy ride by Ho. Massive Move (51) picked up 5 rating points after winning a slow Class 4 on the dirt while getting a big weight allowance to the second place runner Pakistan Baby (61) who just can’t find a race to win, now he is forced up in class after that showing. In the 8th Hay Run (60) finished very well to the wire after running into traffic issues in the stretch, the 9-2 third betting choice Strathspey (49) was a quick pull-up under the French rider Boudet after the line. Race 9 the big favourite Pick Number One (76) held on for the win in a strong Class 3 race that was faster than par, but here is Purton’s line after the race “He’s done a good job to come as far as he has, but quite possibly he’s at the end of it. There was a lot more pressure in the race today, he was a little bit uncomfortable on the corner so he’s done well to balance himself up again and find like he did. However, he was gassed on the line.” They are putting him on the shelf to recover for a while. In the last Hard Ball Get (70) was covered up in the stretch and was never asked to run by bug boy Poon.

Horses to watch for next out list:
Race 5 (341) #3 Nice Kick (57): Was ridden today by Clipperton due to the suspension of Moreira after a nice win going six furlongs against Class 4 runners. Was bumped out of the gate slightly but nothing of significance, settle in the second flight but entering the turn had to stop his momentum when Super Hero Star started falling back off the lead. Moved to the three path half-way in the turn, where he was boxed in behind the eventual favourite winner Lean Perfection (67) entering the stretch, when the winner was making his winning move Nice Kick had to deal with a tiring Amazing Satchmo laid into his path causing him to hesitate in the hole, Sam pretty much just wrapped up in him afterwards not really asking for him in useless situation and galloped out well.

Race 10 (346) #6 Turin Redstar (72): In his second start in Hong Kong after an uneventful first try while drawing the 12 hole on a ‘C+3’ track for Lor, picked up Zach for the ride and the rail at the draw. Broke well and settled mid-pack on the backside, moved off the rail slightly entering the stretch after chasing a slow early pace set by the second place finisher Bullish Smart (74), became rank while looking for room at the 350 metre mark, was blocked until there was only 70 metres to go and exploded to the line without any encouragement from Purton.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 Hair Trigger (73): Beat a weak field with an unproven first timer in Hong Kong that needs to go longer in a slow time.
Speed Figures:
1st (337): 93
2nd (338): -95
3rd (339): -97 ?
4th (340): -99
5th (341): -99
6th (342): 94 ?
7th (343): 102
8th (344): +97
9th (345): 103
10th (346): -98

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92
Griffin – 85

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
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