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Old 12-04-2017, 10:03 PM   #136
woodbinepmi
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 3, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None on both Dirt and Turf
Key Races: 186 and 239

Notes for the day: The tracks looked at first glance to be favouring speed but after a careful look over I decided that it was playing more equal than rewarding horses something that actually wasn’t there. In the first the Runner-up Actuariat (36) ran a game race only losing by a half-length after Deleuze dropped his stick at the top of the stretch, also in that race Snowhooves (23) was totally blocked in the lane and was never able to fully extend himself, all the while with a loose front plate. Will play Gallant Return (60) again in Class 4 after running into some interference, and he caught a couple real nice runners in Sparkling Dragon (66) and Win Beauty Win (62), both of those graded out of Class 4. Hot King Pawn (89) picked up 12 points after his easy win, while drawing away without ever being asked by Zach with a speed figure coming back high enough to compete with Class 1 runners. House Of Fun (103) looked the winner in the ninth only to be caught at the wire by the longshot Fight Hero (93) who came out of Race 172, which now makes 4 winners and 2 seconds out of that single race. Have no explanation on Super Hoppy’s (74) performance in the 9th, it is two races in a row that he has been unable to get to his proper lead foot in the stretch, may be a sign of issues there.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 7 #3 Turf Sprint (79): He doesn’t have the best record on the backside but does look to be rounding into top form and after running second to Hot King Prawn (89) may be sitting on it now. Beat the rest of the field with ease being 2 ¾ lengths in front of the third place runner. Figure came back a 102 which is almost a full length fast than par for Class 3 races.

Race 10 #13 C P Power (62): Broke at least a couple lengths behind the field at the start, on the positive side though it allowed him to settle in on the rail and save ground in the turn, BUT it would have ramifications in the end. Looked full of run in the turn but was caught all up in it with nowhere to go in the stretch, did show some run at the end while being passed on the far outside by the deep closer Diamond Dragon (68) who payed $ 70.60 to win.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 3 #1 Sparkling Dragon (66): Was able to get an easy lead and hold off a couple nice horses in Gallant Return (60) and Win Beauty Win (62) but Sam had to really get into him all the way down the lane and with him not getting to his proper lead, that may get up and bite him against Class 3 runners next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (235): 94
2nd (236): +99#
3rd (237): 95
4th (238): -93
5th (239): 96
6th (240): -97
7th (241): 108
8th (242): +96
9th (243): 104
10th (244): 101

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

F.Y.I.: Wednesday’s races will start a little earlier than normal with the Jockeys’ Challenge there will be 9 races instead of the normal 8, also will have an open thread next Friday night for the Hong Kong International Races, so join in.
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Old 12-05-2017, 09:02 PM   #137
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Hong Kong at Happy Valley. December 6, 2017 Twenty-seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 63 degrees Partly Cloudy 10% of rain Wind: ENE 5 to 10mph.

Post time: 5.30am ET, 2.30 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171206_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 1 Yourthewonforme (2-1): Is 0 for 25 in his lifetime at the downtown track, did just get up at Sha Tin beating a 44-1 Actuariat who had a tougher trip going three wide in the turn without cover.

Race 5 Exceptional Desire (4-1): He’s a luke warm favourite at the time of this writing, he had things go his way last time breaking from the rail as the 9/5 favourite but was caught by two rivals that were conceding 17 and 24 pounds to him, the thing that alarmed me was his gallop out or the lack of one, was grabbed pretty quickly soon after the wire by Purton.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *801 (winners: 2nd & 7th, second: 1st)
Race 4 Garlic Yeah (17-1)

Race 093 (winners: 4th & 8th, second: 2nd)
Race 7 Mi Blanco (24-1)

Race 098 (winners: 1st, 2nd & 4th)
Race 3 Glorious Partners (33-1)

Race 148 (winners: 5th & 6th, second: 3rd)
Race 2 Sharpmind (8-1)

Race 186 (winners: 6th & 14th, second: 4th & 7th)
Race 3 Back In Black (29-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Fairy Twins (9-1)
Race 7 Wah May Baby (14-1)
Race 8 Happy Journey (30-1)
Race 9 Lucky Girl (6-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 Breeders’ Star (22-1): Leaped at the break costing him at least a couple lengths to the field, settled at the rear of the field 7 lengths behind the two front runners who would eventually finish first and second. Responded well from the stick when asked by Callan, had to slightly adjust his path at the 70 metre mark and was gaining on the leaders at the wire, galloped out well.

Race 5 Jolly Bountiful (9-2): He wasn’t slow out of the gate while breaking on the rail with Moreira on board but wasn’t all that quick afterwards, settled mid-pack in the fourth flight, became a little rank at the 650 metre mark when he was ready to run but was pinned in with nowhere to go. Started closing in on the leaders and looked the winner ready to split the runners in front of him but as soon as he stuck his nose in there he shied out of it forcing Moreira to take him around all the while the winner Our Folks was making his winning move.

Past watch list runners:
Race 2 Ambitious Heart (6-1) Race 093
Race 8 Super Form (3-1) Race 126


Key Plays:
Race 2 Ambitious Heart (6-1)
Race 8 Super Form (3-1)


Longshots:
Race 4 Super Clan (10-1)
Race 7 Bo Duke (24-1)
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Old 12-05-2017, 10:14 PM   #138
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woodbinepmi View Post

F.Y.I.: Wednesday’s races will start a little earlier than normal with the Jockeys’ Challenge there will be 9 races instead of the normal 8, also will have an open thread next Friday night for the Hong Kong International Races, so join in.
i think i like pierre boudot to win so you can all throw him out.
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Old 12-06-2017, 04:54 AM   #139
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Still no betting available at Xpressbet. 12/6/17
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Old 12-06-2017, 04:54 AM   #140
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Quote:
Originally Posted by proximity View Post

today's guesses for sha tin:

race 1: the champ
race 2: sun touch
race 3: pass race
race 4: happy friendship
race 5: bond elegance ($12.00 place)
race 6: dollar reward ($32.50 place)
race 7: pass race
race 8: five stars agent
race 9: limitless
race 10: calculation ($24.50 place)
last time: another 0-8 day in the win market after calculation is gunned down on the wire by last to first longshot diamond dragon. bond elegance and dollar reward also place but it's way too little.

season: w 22/114 (0.74) p 50/114 (0.76) q 5/150 (0.34) om 19/150 (0.68)

longines international jockey championship guesses:

key (contend)

race 1:
race 2:
race 3:
race 4:
race 5:
race 6:
race 7:
race 8:
race 9:

international champion: pierre boudot
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Old 12-09-2017, 02:25 PM   #141
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 6, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day: You couldn’t have asked for better trips than what Moreira got in his first two races, winning on both Yourthewonforme (46) and Infinity Endeavour (66), and in the second Ambitious Heart (54) fought Whyte as much as me and my brother did the francophones on our street growing up. As good a ride as Boudot gave in the 8th on Bank On Red (77) he gave an equally bad ride on Bo Duke in the 7th, tried the backside move made popular by Whyte when he was king of the jockey colony, the only problem is he didn’t take the lead, ran to right off the front runners then grabbed him and when he needed to accelerate again there was nothing left in the tank. Marvel Hero (100) may have won the 9th but just refused to go thru a hole at the rail at the 250 mark, when he finally did made a huge run to the winner, picked up 2 points which will keep him in Class 2 for his next race.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 6 #8 Money Boy (69): Is now only 1 for 20 in his Hong Kong record for Size, but does seem to prefer Happy Valley to Sha Tin. Was rubbed on immediately out of the gate and was in a great position waiting right behind the front runners heading into the turn, when he entered the stretch he carried himself out a little more than Moreira wanted and allowed General Iron (71) to get up under him and put Money Boy in a box having to wait for room, at the 180 mark Moreira shifted out and closed well only to lose by a short head to a 45-1 winner.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 #10 Peace Combination (51): Will pick up around 5 to 6 pounds in his next race after getting a perfect trip and winning a Class 4 race in a slower than average time.

Speed Figures:
1st (245): 96#
2nd (246): 98
3rd (247): 101
4th (248): 97
5th (249): 94
6th (250): 100
7th (251): 95
8th (252): -100
9th (253): -104


*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
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Old 12-09-2017, 06:25 PM   #142
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Hong Kong at Sha Tin. December 10, 2017 Twenty-ninth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 73 degrees and sunny 0% chance of rain Wind: NNW 5mph.

Post time: 11.25pm ET, 8.25pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171210_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
None

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 080 (winners: 1st & 2nd, Second: 3rd & 7th)
Race 7 Contentment (26-1)

Race 135 (winners: 1st & 9th, second: 3rd, 4th & 5th)
Race 6 Lucky Dollar (7-1)

Race 172 (winners: 2nd, 3rd, 13th & 14th, second: 4th & 8th)
Race 10 Rise High (9-1)

Race 186 (winners: 6th & 14th, second: 4th & 7th)
Race 2 Winston’s Lad (17-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 Victory Boys (9-1)
Race 1 King Of Mongolia (19-1)
Race 3 Dashing Fellow (28-1)
Race 6 Blocker Dee (43-1)
Race 10 Dr Listening (37-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 2 Simply Brilliant (5-2): In his first race in Hong Kong drew a tough Class 3 event while being bet down to the 9-2 second choice. Sat around four lengths off the front runner on the backside, looked like he was going to get up at the 200 metre mark but was just a little short after not racing since his last race at Ascot in June. Was just beaten by a neck to Super Fluke in his third straight win, he picked up 3 rating points off that effort and will be allowed to run again in Class 3, look for him at Sha Tin next time.

Race 5 Lucky Bubbles (7-2): In one word ‘Disaster’ is how Purton responded after the run. Broke well enough into a good position off the leaders on the rail but when Chadwick decided to slow everything down he was forced to check up then became rank for the next 200 metres, later when trying to force his way into a hole had to be taken up again when Dashing Fellow came over onto him at the 300 mark, finished up under a hand ride on the rail while Mr Stunning was running away for his easy check.

Race 5 D B Pin: Is a real game runner, gives an honest run every time even though he’s probably in a little out of his weight class. Was taken back out of the duel entering the turn but then was forced to alter his course after Peniaphobia slow everything up, then was stuck behind a wall entering the stretch had a hole but looked like the hole was moving a little quicker than he was, wasn’t helped with Not Listenin’tome keep drifting in and out in front of him. Closed well to the wire when Not Listenin’tome finally threw in the anchor and gave him a clear lane to scoot thru, hopefully he’ll find an easier spot next out in a Class 1 or a lower Graded race. (Well that didn’t happen, throwing him into the lion’s den again).

Past watch list runners:
Race 7 Sichuan Dar (29-1) Race 153

Key Plays:
Race 2 Simply Brilliant (5-2)
Race 5 Lucky Bubbles (7-2)

Longshots:
Race 2 Winston’s Lad (17-1)
Race 3 Southern Legend (22-1)
Race 9 Affluence Start (12-1)
Race 9 Diamond King (13-1)

Will be running a live chat during the races tonight, so join in.
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Old 12-09-2017, 09:40 PM   #143
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HKIR Selections from Hongkongturf.com

Long post here, but see below for detailed Hong Kong Turf analysis of tonights HKIR:

Summary Selections:

Race 4: Longines Hong Kong Vase – 2400M (1 ½ Miles): #1 Highland Reel (Best Bet), #2 Talismanic, #12 Kiseki, #3 Tiberian

Race 5: Longines Hong Kong Sprint – 1200M (6 Furlongs): #2 Lucky Bubbles, #9 Blizzard, #1 Mr. Stunning, #11 Stormy Liberal

Race 7: Longines Hong Kong Mile – 1600M (1 Mile): #7 Seasons Bloom, #14 Roly Poly, #10 Beauty Generation, #2 Helene Paragon

Race 8: Longines Hong Kong Cup – 2000M (1 1/4 Miles): #4 Werther, #3 Poet’s Word, #2 Neorealism, #9 Time Warp



Detailed Analysis:

Race 4: Longines Hong Kong Vase – 2400M (1 ½ Miles)



#1 Highland Reel seemingly walks off the plane anywhere in the world ready to run. He won this race in 2015 over Flintshire, and arguably ran an even sharper race here last year when he was nipped in the final 50 yards by Satono Crown, 6 lengths clear of 3rd. Highland Reel disappointed somewhat when beaten on the square by Talismanic in the Breeders Cup Turf as the favorite, but he never looked comfortable early that day. The feeling is he can improve off that effort here, likely with a comfortable trip on the front end. If he shows up with one of his better efforts, his elite form is simply too good for this field, (including Talismanic). 2/1 looks like value – best bet of the HKIR.

#2 Talismanic needs no introduction, coming here off a score in the Breeders Cup Turf in a mild upset for Godolophin. The horse with the distinctive white face is tough to knock off that peak effort and an obvious true contender, but it’s worth considering that he was not quite a top class runner this year in Europe, with the BC representing his 1st and only Group 1 win. While he won convincingly, he received a great trip in that race. That said, he appears to be peaking at the right time for this, and may be the “now” horse. Main threat.

#12 Kiseki is a lightly raced Japanese 3 year old who may be getting better with each race. He enters here off a convincing win in the Japanese St Leger over 1 7/8 M on soft turf. He gets the acid test here, but may well be this good, and the 5 lb allowance from the older runners is not insignificant. One key cause for pause, however, is that he showed symptoms of ringworm upon arrival in Hong Kong. Experts seem to feel it should have little to no impact on his performance, but anything to impact the preparation and routine coming into a race of this caliber demands a downgrade.

#3 Tiberian is being forgotten in the early betting, but has done little wrong this year in a campaign with 4 wins, including 2 wins over Talismanic. Throw out the Melbourne Cup (2 miles vs. 22 rivals), and the form comes into sharper focus. He’s another strong stayer who looks to be peaking, and can help create some value the exotics at a big price.





Race 5: Longines Hong Kong Sprint – 1200M (6 Furlongs)



#2 Lucky Bubbles was favored over Mr. Stunning in both of their prep races coming into this. The race 2-back was a fine 2nd off of a layoff, but last time out, he endured a nightmarish trip with an indecisive ride. That race is a clear toss out – look beyond it and you have a G1 winner in Hong Kong who is always right on the line. Big player here.

#9 Blizzard lacks the resume of some of the top players in here, but has run races that look good enough based on speed figures. He appears to be in top form, finishing a solid 2nd in one of the better races of the season 2-back, in a race where he may not have been fully cranked. He then followed that up with a close 5th place finish in Japan. His recent trial showed that he remains on his toes, and is a legit player as a huge overlay in this race.

#1 Mr. Stunning – Most of the Hong Kong runners here are exiting the same sequence of prep races, both won well by Mr. Stunning. He has a great draw and is very logical and a huge threat here. Hong Kong’s highest rated horse would be no surprise, but his room for error is limited, and the current odds of 3-5 are just too short.

#11 Stormy Liberal, whose connections have been deeply impacted by the tragedy in San Luis Rey will be a sentimental rooting interest. While he was a big longshot, he ran a huge race to capture the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint over the likes of Marsha and Lady Aurelia. Americans have never really fired here, and it’s fair to question whether he can run another peak effort halfway around the world off 5 weeks rest. That said, he’s at the top of his game and will go to the post at odds of greater than 40-1.





Race 7: Longines Hong Kong Mile – 1600M (1 Mile)



In a race lacking a true international standout, #7 Seasons Bloom is in the best form of the Hong Kong contingent. He kicked off the season in raging fashion with a big win in a tough Class 1 over 1200, before a 2nd place finish over 1400M, then a solid win over several of his challengers over the mile in his final prep. Top rider Joao Moreira sticks, and he looks like the one they’ll need to hold off in the lane.

Don’t sleep on #14, Roly Poly, a 3YO filly. Currently 40/1 in the betting, Roly Poly was a popular “wise guy” play in the Breeder’s Cup Mile. She disappointed that day, uncharacteristically far back in the field, but this is a softer spot, and this miss is a multiple Group 1 winner this year for Aiden O’Brien. She received a very wide draw in the 14 gate, and that has bettors essentially writing off her chances entirely. Given the set-up, expect Jamie Heffernan to try to use her speed to clear the field. Keep in mind that it is a long run down the backstretch going a mile at Sha Tin, and ground loss is not a guarantee. With a clean getaway, she’ll take some catching, and could blow up the exotics.

#10 Beauty Generation is another local in sharp current form. With a thinner local resume than some of this rivals in here, he has made the most of his strong tactical speed and grit in the stretch to take 2 of the 3 keep preps coming into this. He seems to have blossomed on the cutback to the middle distances this season and isn’t going down without a fight. A win would be tremendous for local rider Derek Leung who has been a roll this season.

#2 Helene Paragon was a narrow 2nd in this last season, and followed up the effort with a pair of G1 wins over the winter, before the form began to tail off in the spring. The last race, however, may signal that he is back on track, as he was ½ length behind Seasons Bloom under a 5 lb penalty. He is the “1st string” runner for the John Moore barn, and his best would make him tough.





Race 8: Longines Hong Kong Cup – 2000M (1 1/4 Miles)



#4 Werther has repeatedly run huge in Hong Kong’s international events, and has stamped himself as the top classic distance horse on the grounds. The prep path coming up to this has gone off without a hitch, and things are coming together for him to win his biggest prize yet for John Moore. He won his final prep in fast time over a stubborn Time Warp like a horse who will be better for the effort; afterwards, John Moore commented that Werther was about 80% cranked. Looking for him to fire a top effort here and mow them down late.

#3 Poet’s Word put together a solid campaign in Europe this year for Sir Michael Stoute, and comes into this on a high note off a pair of rock solid 2nd place finishes in the Irish and UK Champions Stakes over the same distance. The wide gate is a bit of a concern, but he has never been better, and is slipping under the radar in the early betting.

#2 Neorealism is a tricky horse to evaluate. He won the QE2 here in the spring, when Joao Moreira made a perfectly timed early move into a bizarrely slow pace. The back class is there as well, as he has multiple top class wins in Japan. Current form is a question mark, however, as he enters off a dull effort in the Tenno Sho in Japan – was that just a prep, or a signal of declining form? Noriyuki Hori has won a ridiculous 5 of his last 7 races entered in Hong Kong, and Joao Moreira again takes the mount. Can’t ignore.

#9 Time Warp has been on an absolute tear since last June, as he progressed from Class 2 to giving Werther all he could handle in the run up to the HKIR. Though he hasn’t won yet this season, he has proven he belongs here with a 2 heart breaking second place finishes. He brings a high level of tactical speed, and encouragingly showed a rating dimension last out when a pace setter put him in a difficult tactical spot. That last effort also dispelled any doubts that he wants this distance. Could see him potentially carrying his speed all the way with a perfect trip, but has a big place chance at the minimum.
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Old 12-09-2017, 11:09 PM   #144
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Cool HONG KONG - SHA TIN SUN 12/10/17

Good evening and soon to be morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Hi there Michael! I thought I might just join you for this one card.

This is one of the best race cards of this meet, and looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with 10 big races on the Turf. 4 Grade 1’s, 1 Class1, 2 Class2, and 3 Class3.

Post Time Race #1 – 11:25 AM SUN EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 10 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url...gRedirect=true

I’ll won’t be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections are ALL be based on a static tote analysis. The Live selections will all be based the Live tote analysis.

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early and odds used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. The Live tote analysis will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%.

R#1 - 1800M C3 (9F)T…..1-3-10 W/ 2-6-8 ….….11:25 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#2 - 1200M C3 (6F)T…... 5-3-2 W/ 10-11-6 ……11:55 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #12 & #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#3 - 1400M C1 (7F)T….....6-2-1 W/ 3-9 ..............12:30 AM EST

R#4 - 2400M G1 (12F)T…...1-2-12 W/ 9-6-8 ….....1:00 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #10 & #3 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#5 - 1200M G1 (6F)T.……1-2-4 W/ 5-9-3 …......1:40 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 & #11 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#6 - 1200M C2 (6F)T….....5-3-10 W/ 1-11-7 ……2:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #8 & #14 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#7 – 1600M G1 (8F)T…....2-1-7 W/ 3-13-10 .........2:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #14 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#8 - 2000M G1 (10F)T……4-2-1 W/ 3-5-8 ………3:30 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 & #6 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#9 - 1400M C3 (7F)T.…….2-3-6 W/ 5-1-11 ….…...4:10 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #7 & #4 – Watch Live tote activity)

R#10 - 1600M C2 (8F)T.......4-2-6 W/ 12-9-13 ……...4:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #5 & #7 – Watch Live tote activity)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!
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Old 12-11-2017, 03:35 PM   #145
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 10, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: None

Notes for the day:
It looked like there may have been a bias to front runners but most of the races that were won on the lead were done by favourites who had figured or runners that were allowed to set a slow pace. The variant was pretty easy to set except for the Highland Reel’s win going a marathon distance which wasn’t used in it and in the final where the pace was set at a pedestrian time. Son of Frankel Simply Brilliant (78) looked to have hung a little mid-stretch but closed well after Rawiller got his attention back on the game, just missed out by a head to Key Witness (85) who will be heading back to Class 2 after that effort. Southern Legend (106) took full advantage of the trip Nothingilikemore (112) getting in trouble early then forced wide entering the stretch. Mr Stunning (130) ran a new lifetime figure of 114 topping his 113 he ran last meet in the Sprint Cup GII, thought he might have caught with D B Pin (127) in the stretch, that effort by D B may have taken a little too much out of him though, will probably play against him next time out (depending on the odds of course). Lockheed (88) gave a decent run after being pounded at the windows going off at 8-5, he’s a real nice looking grey colt. A very nice rides by Leung on Beauty Generation (126) and Purton on Time Warp (126) getting them to the front and putting their runners to sleep while running and having plenty left in the tank when the alarm bells went off. As good a ride as Purton gave in the HK Cup it was nothing compared to what he did on Spicy Sure (87) in the 9th, sat right off Bowman on Calculation (79) when they straightened up in the stretch he pulled right up to Bowman without him noticing and put him right into the rear of a tiring Affluent Star (72) stopping his momentum and allowing Purton a free run to the wire without any competition. Give Rattan (85) an excuse in this run, was forced to chase a loose Time To Celebrate (89) that was allowed to set a very slow pace, Rattan looked to have hesitated when he needed to get through a hole, but closed well when room became available.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 3 #4 Dundonnell (109): In his first race since running in Dubai caught a real nice field for his return. Broke extremely slow out of the gate conceding at least two lengths to the field, was a little rank on the backside, looked full of run entering the stretch while being blocked found room at the 280 mark and pretty much ran evenly afterwards, nice effort for being off since last March in the desert. Hopefully Lor will keep him in this class and not raise him back in the Graded ranks again, has spent most of his career in over his head.

Race 6 #11 Jing Jing Win (84): Was very unlucky at the draw getting the outside post 14 in the short run to the turn going 1200, broke well enough and was taken back by Purton to try and save as much ground as possible. Became rank or had to check up heading into the turn (kind of hard to tell which on the replays), then began climbing in the turn going 2 wide moved to the 6 path in the straighten up finished well only to get beat by a length to Wah May Friend (104) who had just dropped down from a Class 1 race where he had lost by a nose to Western Express (122).

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 2 #2 Key Witness (85): Will be heading back up to Class 2 after winning this Class 3 in a slow time for even that class, he didn’t gallop out all that well after the race.

Speed Figures:
1st (254): 101
2nd (255): 98
3rd (256): 107
4th (257): 116#
5th (258): 114
6th (259): 102
7th (260): +110
8th (261): -107
9th (262): 100
10th (263): -101#

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
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Old 12-12-2017, 08:16 PM   #146
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Hong Kong at Happy Valley. December 13, 2017 Thirtieth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 64 degrees partly cloudy 20% of rain Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 6.15 am ET, 3.15 am PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171213_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 4 Midnite Promise (2-1): Was a very disappointing favourite in his last running 8th beaten 3 lengths, he was never asked and after watching the race again I couldn’t find an excuse for the bad run. After winning only once in 33 tries I will hope he runs another race like he did in his last at 2-1 and try and beat him.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *792 (Winners: 2nd & 10th, second: 11th)
Race 2 Gracious Ryder (7-1)

Race 022 (Winners: 6th, 7th & 10th)
Race 3 Striking Star (32-1)

Race 173 (Winners: 4th & 12th, second: 5th)
Race 1 Le Pegase (9-1)


In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Trendiful (16-1)
Race 6 Right Call (16-1)
Race 8 Energetic Class (22-1)

Last race watch list horses:
Race 8 Diamond Master: Was lucky to draw the rail after drawing outside post lately, broke well and sat right off the leaders and was more full of run than what he’s been normally showing lately. Was making a move to the front at the 250 mark when Berry on Storm Signal came out and forced Lai to severely take up on him, he put the stick away and just let him gallop out afterwards. (My luck he draws the outside post again.)

Past watch list runners:
None

Key Play:
Race 2 Clear Choice (16-1)
Race 8 California Fortune (9-5)

Longshots:
Race 1 Le Pegase (9-1)
Race 5 Five Stars Agent (11-1)
Race 6 Ho Ho Feel (16-1)
Race 7 Dr Win Win (12-1)
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Old 12-14-2017, 06:08 PM   #147
woodbinepmi
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 13, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: *761, 128 and 216

Notes for the day:
In the 3rd Golden Glory (46) ran a figure strong enough to be able to compete and even win if he gets lucky and draws a weaker Class 4 field, especially if Poon stays on with the 7 pound weight which will put him in around 113. In that race Trendiful (32) was bounced around like a tennis ball for the first 100 metres of the race, not a bad effort finishing third against a runaway winner after all that, also Haymaker (37) spotted the field about four lengths at the break and then had to run 3 wide finished pretty evenly in the stretch, would put him on the watch list but he’s a little too inconsistent runner. In the 4th Speedy Wally (55) looked uninterested in running, was extremely rank for the first half of the race, so you probably can put a line thru it. Couldn’t find an excuse for Polymer Luck (52) in the firth, he usually gives an honest effort but not today, he is looking more and more like a runner who has no intentions of winning unless it is given to him. Moreira’s ride in the 6th Pretty Bauhinia (67) was moving into contention when he had to be slightly steadied at the 200 mark when Land Grant (73) started to tire and came into his path, Moreira had to move to the outside of the eventual winner but was unable to catch him at the wire under a hand ride. An excellent ride by the Brazilian in the 7th getting Mister Monte (72) to the lead and coast around for a big effort, should have no problem repeating that effort next time in Class 3 unless he draws another speed-baller like California Fortune (77) drew with Burst Away (64) in the 8th. Whyte put Chadwick in a speed duel and California Fortune wants no part of that, Hair Trigger (66) was bumped and squeezed back at the break and then was 3 wide afterwards so give him a closer look next race. On a personal note, tough beat for our only watch horse of the day Diamond Master (68) losing by a half a length in the last at 49-1.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 6 #7 Ho Ho Feel (68): Won two races back going 1800 metres at the Valley and then came back with a decent effort after having a little trouble at the break at Sha Tin going two turns which is probably a little too far for him to go. Drew the 11 post with the short run to the first turn, took a nice leap out of the gate at the start conceding at least a length to the field, it really didn’t compromise his running position though what with him being a dead closer. Was unable to find the rail in the first turn so raced 3 wide because Leung on Chater Legend wasn’t allowed to move over himself, made a slight move going up the hill on the backside heading into the turn for home, had a slight change of course at the 250 metre mark, lacked the ample kick home to catch the easy winner.

Horse to avoid next out:
Race 6 #12 Winning Faith (67): Won a slow Class 3 race after his main rival ran into traffic problems, picked up 6 points off the effort which will put him at 121 pounds next out.


Speed Figures:
1st (264): -92
2nd (265): 95
3rd (266): 96
4th (267): -95 ?
5th (268): 97
6th (269): -97
7th (270): 104
8th (271): 97

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
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Old 12-16-2017, 04:20 PM   #148
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Hong Kong at Sha Tin. December 17, 2017 Thirty-first race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 59 degrees Overcast 0% of rain Wind: N 10 to 20 mph.

Post time: 1.15am ET, 10.15pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20171217_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 2 Proud Sky (9-5): Playing against a trainer that is 4 for 146 for the season so far on a horse that is short only for the sole purpose that Moreira picked up the mount.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 158 (Winners: 5th & 10th, second: 1st & 3rd)
Race 9 Endearing (13-1)

Race 186 (Winners: 6th & 14th, second: 4th & 7th)
Race 5 Young Legend (9-2)

Race 216 (Winners: 2nd & 3rd, second: 10th)
Race 9 Relentless Me (18-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 Wealthy Fortune (17-1)
Race 8 Green Energy (28-1)
Race 10 Pingwu Spark (7-1)

Last race watch list horses:
None

Past watch list runners:
Race 5 Cheer Win (10-1)
Race 6 Royale Elegance (9-1)
Race 8 Ping Hai Star (3-5)
Race 8 Such A Happiness (22-1)
Race 9 Pick Number One (2-1)

Key Plays:
Race 7 Agree (5-1)
Race 10 Pingwu Spark (7-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 Amritsaria (11-1)
Race 5 Cheer Win (10-1)
Race 9 Endearing (13-1)
Race 10 Big Bang Bong (19-1)
Race 10 World Record (26-1)
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Old 12-16-2017, 11:00 PM   #149
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tonight's guesses:

race 2: spicey double
race 4: lucky time
race 7: dashing dart
race 9: jade theatre
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Old 12-18-2017, 09:55 PM   #150
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: December 17, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: Turf: Off the pace… Dirt: Speed
Key Races: 184 & 185

Notes for the day:
Impressive win by the first time starter Lean Perfection (59) after breaking a little slow then fighting his way thru the field in the straight, should improve when he gets to go longer. In that same race look for Gouten Of Garo (51) to get an equipment change to blinkers or a ring bit, was turning his head for half the race. Audacity (39) ran a very game race running near the front fighting the bias in a fast early pace and still was only defeated by a half-length to Proud Sky (43). First time starter in the fourth for freedman Aashiqui (52) was unfortunate to draw the rail in his debut and ran very rank early and then green in the lane, was not asked at all, watch how the tote board treats him the next time out, will have to run in another barrier trial before racing again by orders of the stewards. Massive win by Easy Go Easy Win (81) in picking up 9 rating points off that effort, outrun a nice horse in Amazing Star (62) with ease, watch for the first one to run and it may give us an idea on how strong the other is. Good For You (58) was looking like he was about to peak into form off his out in Race 220 but was rank and then blocked in the stretch, but still finished well in a quick Class 4 race. In the other Class 4 race Indigenous Star (49) was doomed at the draw getting the 13 hole, was rank while going wide in the turn a very excusable reason in where he finished, look closely at him if Moreira stays on and he gets a better gate. Hopefully Shum keeps Pick Number One (69) on the dirt, may be the fastest dirt horse on the backside right now on the AWT. If you didn’t see the last go back and watch it, Pingwu Spark (103) looked all but beat stuck in on the rail half-way thru the stretch but forced his way out and exploded to the wire while knocking Eastern Express (96) sideways causing Leung two racing days, going to see how he runs against Class 1 runners next time before I play him again but he should be able to compete eventually.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 6 #10 Noble Steed (60): In his second career race after he had closed to run a good third behind Sparkling Dragon (66) in his debut. In here was bounced around at the start nothing to compromise his race but still enough that it will sometimes affect young runners to take their minds off the issue, but it didn’t seem to bother him. Settled mid-pack chasing a front runner who eventually was eased in the lane, was in tight three wide entering the stretch and quickly accelerated when asked by Prebble and drew away from a nice Class 4 field under a hand ride with his ears picked straight up. Picked up 8 points which will allow him to run again in Class 4 and the extra 8 pounds shouldn’t be an issue.

Race 10 #4 Good Standing (90): In his first try in Hong Kong after winning three races in his homeland of Australia, picked up the services of Mr. Purton but was unlucky in drawing the big (literally 1330 lbs.) Pingwu Spark (103). Was bounced a couple times down the backside by the winner, Purton was able to have the chalk boxed in entering the stretch, looked like he was a winner when Pingwu Spark ran into his difficulties, was able to get a length and a half lead at the 150 metre mark but ran out of gas late after being away from the races since last May, should improve off that effort.

Horses to avoid next out:
None

Speed Figures:
1st (272): 93 ?
2nd (273): +96
3rd (274): 89
4th (275): 97
5th (276): 101
6th (277): 98
7th (278): -93
8th (279): +99
9th (280): 103
10th (281): 103

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
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