Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 07-02-2018, 12:50 PM   #1
Parson
Registered User
 
Parson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Louisville, KY
Posts: 211
Rep Power: 4 Parson is on a distinguished road
question on odds

Trying to add another weapon in my arsenal. I have been a bit more selective on what races I wager the past few months. Fewer wagers have resulted in more profit at the end of the wagering day.

Now I want to really concentrate on my pick and only wagering if there is value instead of just wagering to pick a winner. My question is this: For those of you that only bet if you think the horse has value, meaning he is 4/1 and should be 2/1, is how do you determine if the horse should be 2/1?

I need a bit of help in that area and any suggestions would be much appreciated.
Parson is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2018, 03:06 PM   #2
TiffaniO
Queen B
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Winnerís Circle
Posts: 371
Rep Power: 0 TiffaniO will become famous soon enoughTiffaniO will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by Parson View Post
Trying to add another weapon in my arsenal. I have been a bit more selective on what races I wager the past few months. Fewer wagers have resulted in more profit at the end of the wagering day.

Now I want to really concentrate on my pick and only wagering if there is value instead of just wagering to pick a winner. My question is this: For those of you that only bet if you think the horse has value, meaning he is 4/1 and should be 2/1, is how do you determine if the horse should be 2/1?

I need a bit of help in that area and any suggestions would be much appreciated.
That is all subjective
TiffaniO is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2018, 03:20 PM   #3
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: New York
Posts: 58,309
Rep Power: 89 PaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud of
Quote:
Originally Posted by TiffaniO View Post
That is all subjective
This was helpful...can you pretty please expand on your thoughts? Makes me wonder why you bothered to reply at all.
__________________
@paceadvantage | Support the site and become a today!
PaceAdvantage is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2018, 03:22 PM   #4
TiffaniO
Queen B
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Winnerís Circle
Posts: 371
Rep Power: 0 TiffaniO will become famous soon enoughTiffaniO will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
This was helpful...can you pretty please expand on your thoughts? Makes me wonder why you bothered to reply at all.
Nah, that was enough insight on my part.
TiffaniO is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2018, 03:22 PM   #5
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: New York
Posts: 58,309
Rep Power: 89 PaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud of
Wow.
__________________
@paceadvantage | Support the site and become a today!
PaceAdvantage is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2018, 03:23 PM   #6
TiffaniO
Queen B
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Winnerís Circle
Posts: 371
Rep Power: 0 TiffaniO will become famous soon enoughTiffaniO will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
Wow.
TiffaniO is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2018, 03:34 PM   #7
thaskalos
The Sleeper Must Awaken
 
thaskalos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 21,795
Rep Power: 44 thaskalos has much to be proud ofthaskalos has much to be proud ofthaskalos has much to be proud ofthaskalos has much to be proud ofthaskalos has much to be proud ofthaskalos has much to be proud ofthaskalos has much to be proud ofthaskalos has much to be proud of
As a starting point, decide on who the win-contenders of the race are...and then ask yourself: "How many times would each contender win, if this race were run 100 times?". Your win estimates could then be easily converted into an odds-line. Of course, as with everything else in this game...the more sophisticated you are as player, the better your odds-line becomes.
__________________
The great challenge of life: Knowing enough to think we are right...but not knowing enough to know we are wrong.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2018, 04:40 PM   #8
Jeff P
Registered User
 
Jeff P's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 3,042
Rep Power: 23 Jeff P has a spectacular aura aboutJeff P has a spectacular aura aboutJeff P has a spectacular aura about
Beyond just the speed figs...

Who's riding?

If there's a rider change, is the new rider better or worse than the previous rider?

How does today's rider stack up vs. the riders of the other runners in the race?

Who's training?

If there's a barn switch, is the new trainer better or worse than the previous trainer?

How does today's trainer stack up vs. the trainers of the other runners in the race?

Is today's surface different from the surfaces of previous running lines? Think beyond the obvious such as turf to dirt, dirt to turf, wet to dry, and dry to wet, etc.

Are any of the horse's previous running lines actually better than they look at first glance because the horse couldn't handle the surface that day? Or raced on the worst part of the surface that day? If so, consider moving that horse up a little if today's surface is different from that of an uglied up previous running line.

Are any of the horse's previous running lines actually worse than they look at first glance because the horse caught an ideal surface that day? Or raced on the best part of the surface that day? If so, consider moving that horse down a little - especially if today's surface is different from that of a previous prettied-up running line.

Same thought process applies to pace scenarios, class, distance, gate draw, good rides, bad rides, good trips, bad trips, workouts, changes in physical appearance, and just about any other thing you can think of, etc.

Experience helps.

So does record keeping.

Imo, record keeping can help you discover not just whether or not someting matters - but the degree to which something matters.

No one thing is a game changer by itself.

But taken collectively, lots of subtle things matter.



-jp

.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com

Last edited by Jeff P; 07-02-2018 at 04:54 PM.
Jeff P is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2018, 04:55 PM   #9
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 17,647
Rep Power: 31 Robert Fischer has a spectacular aura aboutRobert Fischer has a spectacular aura about
Value has to come from somewhere significant. It's generally not enough to agree with the public while quibbling about slight odds adjustments here and there. Usually you need to hate one of the public's top contenders or love one of the public's longest shots on the board.

When you have these significant opinions, the first thing that's going to change is the odds rankings (You have a horse ranked 5th most likely that the public has first most likely). You will also develop a feel for what a 2/1 feels like in a certain pattern. Sometimes it simply comes down to understanding why the public is betting, looking at the board and then adjusting for your opinion (They love this horse's last race and have him at 7/5, and while he's the most likely winner, I do not agree with the public about that last race and he feels more like maybe a 2/1 shot that I want to pass here at 7/5).
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2018, 05:24 PM   #10
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 5,470
Rep Power: 25 the little guy is a glorious beacon of lightthe little guy is a glorious beacon of lightthe little guy is a glorious beacon of lightthe little guy is a glorious beacon of lightthe little guy is a glorious beacon of lightthe little guy is a glorious beacon of light
The answer is that without a sophisticated computer model, you can't. Given takeout, there won't actually be a lot of horses that represent "value" and if they do, it will be marginal....i.e. getting 5:2 on a horse that actually should be 2:1 is really very good value. What you might be able to do over time is develop a reasonable feel. Also, understand that if you are playing exotics, vertical or horizontal, the diffusion of takeout through added positions can create better "value" than straight win odds.


The best chance you have at getting "value" is to effectively eliminate favorites. If you can accurately remove even a 4:1 shot, you have effectively eliminated the takeout. If you eliminate a 2:1 from the first two slots, you could dutch the field and make money. This is the best way to give yourself a chance to win.
the little guy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2018, 05:31 PM   #11
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 41,849
Rep Power: 66 cj is a splendid one to beholdcj is a splendid one to beholdcj is a splendid one to beholdcj is a splendid one to beholdcj is a splendid one to beholdcj is a splendid one to beholdcj is a splendid one to behold
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
The answer is that without a sophisticated computer model, you can't. Given takeout, there won't actually be a lot of horses that represent "value" and if they do, it will be marginal....i.e. getting 5:2 on a horse that actually should be 2:1 is really very good value. What you might be able to do over time is develop a reasonable feel. Also, understand that if you are playing exotics, vertical or horizontal, the diffusion of takeout through added positions can create better "value" than straight win odds.


The best chance you have at getting "value" is to effectively eliminate favorites. If you can accurately remove even a 4:1 shot, you have effectively eliminated the takeout. If you eliminate a 2:1 from the first two slots, you could dutch the field and make money. This is the best way to give yourself a chance to win.
This is a great post, honest and accurate.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2018, 05:33 PM   #12
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 3,193
Rep Power: 21 GMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the rough
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post


The best chance you have at getting "value" is to effectively eliminate favorites. If you can accurately remove even a 4:1 shot, you have effectively eliminated the takeout. If you eliminate a 2:1 from the first two slots, you could dutch the field and make money. This is the best way to give yourself a chance to win.
I think this is the key. Part of my play is actually looking through all races run in the country and flagging poor favorites (using computer modeling) and then see if I find something I like in the race thus reducing the takeout. I have found that is an easier way to find value rather than hoping my selection is not quite bet properly.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2018, 05:34 PM   #13
thaskalos
The Sleeper Must Awaken
 
thaskalos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 21,795
Rep Power: 44 thaskalos has much to be proud ofthaskalos has much to be proud ofthaskalos has much to be proud ofthaskalos has much to be proud ofthaskalos has much to be proud ofthaskalos has much to be proud ofthaskalos has much to be proud ofthaskalos has much to be proud of
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
The answer is that without a sophisticated computer model, you can't. Given takeout, there won't actually be a lot of horses that represent "value" and if they do, it will be marginal....i.e. getting 5:2 on a horse that actually should be 2:1 is really very good value. What you might be able to do over time is develop a reasonable feel. Also, understand that if you are playing exotics, vertical or horizontal, the diffusion of takeout through added positions can create better "value" than straight win odds.


The best chance you have at getting "value" is to effectively eliminate favorites. If you can accurately remove even a 4:1 shot, you have effectively eliminated the takeout. If you eliminate a 2:1 from the first two slots, you could dutch the field and make money. This is the best way to give yourself a chance to win.
"Effectively" being the key word. I tried to create "value" by eliminating the favored in the 4th at Thistledown today...a horse whom I considered the very epitome of the term "false favorite". And the horse repaid me by winning easily.
__________________
The great challenge of life: Knowing enough to think we are right...but not knowing enough to know we are wrong.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2018, 05:35 PM   #14
lawmaker1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 25
Rep Power: 0 lawmaker1 is on a distinguished road
Get the book "Money Secrets at the Racetrack" by Barry Meadow. Barry devotes a chapter explaining how to set your own line. It's probably the best book ever written about the math of horseracing in an easy to understand format.
lawmaker1 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2018, 05:40 PM   #15
Tom
Registered User
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 89,553
Rep Power: 117 Tom has much to be proud ofTom has much to be proud ofTom has much to be proud ofTom has much to be proud ofTom has much to be proud ofTom has much to be proud ofTom has much to be proud ofTom has much to be proud of
Get a copy of The Four Quarters of Horse Investing - Steve Fierro.

https://www.amazon.com/four-quarters.../dp/B001N07M66

Good read about how to look at a race to decide how predictable it is.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
What are the true odds of a Baffert Trifecta in the Kentucky Derby
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:51 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.