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Old 02-17-2018, 08:50 PM   #31
Franco Santiago
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I am simply saying that while the whole "make-a-line-and-bet-into-it" approach is so logical (and comfortable), it just never seems to work.

Same with Kelly.
Dave
Concur, Mr. Schwartz.

As we know, Kelly is a mathematical function. If you absolutely know the probabilities and the return on investment, it works, just assuredly as the Titanic sinking once it was holed.

Therefore, the only conclusion we can draw is that, in horse race handicapping, the probabilities of winning are actually lower than the handicapper estimates.

And the truth is, the public is a much better handicapper than the great majority of individuals. So when an individual says the probability of winning is 25% and he/she thinks she has an overlay at 5 or 6-1 (and begins to salivate like Pavlov's dog), well, the fact of matter is that the probability of that horse winning is really probably closer to 15 or 20%, creating an underlay. And thus, when this is repeated over and over again, Kelly "seems not to work". But it ain't Kelly that ain't workin'...it's the handicapping that is deficient.

(Disclaimer - Dave knew all this, but didn't wanna say it. LOL)
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Old 02-17-2018, 09:32 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Franco Santiago View Post
Concur, Mr. Schwartz.

As we know, Kelly is a mathematical function. If you absolutely know the probabilities and the return on investment, it works, just assuredly as the Titanic sinking once it was holed.

Therefore, the only conclusion we can draw is that, in horse race handicapping, the probabilities of winning are actually lower than the handicapper estimates.

And the truth is, the public is a much better handicapper than the great majority of individuals. So when an individual says the probability of winning is 25% and he/she thinks she has an overlay at 5 or 6-1 (and begins to salivate like Pavlov's dog), well, the fact of matter is that the probability of that horse winning is really probably closer to 15 or 20%, creating an underlay. And thus, when this is repeated over and over again, Kelly "seems not to work". But it ain't Kelly that ain't workin'...it's the handicapping that is deficient.

(Disclaimer - Dave knew all this, but didn't wanna say it. LOL)
Franco,

Actually, I did say it in an earlier post that was VERY LONG.

For the most part, I agree with you.

The only statement I disagree with is in bold. (And I know you meant it somewhat metaphorically.)

The issue isn't that WE overestimate probabilities. The issue is that we overestimate sometimes, underestimate other times, and cannot tell the difference.

Many players make a line on a horse - say 3/1 - and (logically) think that if they double that to 6/1 they just HAVE TO be profitable.

Adding a margin of error will not overcome weak handicapping!

I actually had a coaching client years ago who said that he'd be better off playing against his own picks, so I told him to try it. He reported back a week later that his results improved. (Still lost money but not as badly.)


In my opinion, the single thing that prevents most players from winning is that they do not actually have a simple core handicapping approach.

Most players view each race as a unique problem to be solved.

It is much easier to be competitive (in terms of bankroll growth/deterioration) if you find commonalities between races and develop a "core method."

Viewing each race - and each horse in a race - as a unique puzzle to be put together leaves you with reinventing your approach in every race.

What I am saying is that when "puzzle players" develop a consistent core method, it is like providing them with a picture of the box showing the edges and corners. It gives them a logical place to begin.


Dave
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Old 02-17-2018, 09:45 PM   #33
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A lot of losing.
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Old 02-17-2018, 11:05 PM   #34
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Franco,

In my opinion, the single thing that prevents most players from winning is that they do not actually have a simple core handicapping approach.

Dave
Interesting. I happen to think it goes much deeper than that, but certainly not having a strategy would be a core problem. I think most players do have an approach, but it's not one that can win because they view the races the same as 98% of the their competition and expect to find an edge because they think their analysis is better.

But, truth be told, I have no idea what other people are REALLY doing...I live in my own handicapping bubble in my home-office. For all I know, people are throwing darts. And to be honest, I don't care one way or another. What I do know is that in order for me to win, fields have to be competitive and my opponents have to (collectively) make mistakes. I don't think they make many in the win pool, but in multi-race bets where there are many combinations, there's no question that certain low odds horses get significantly overbet.
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Old 02-18-2018, 12:09 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by Franco Santiago View Post
Interesting. I happen to think it goes much deeper than that, but certainly not having a strategy would be a core problem. I think most players do have an approach, but it's not one that can win because they view the races the same as 98% of the their competition and expect to find an edge because they think their analysis is better.

But, truth be told, I have no idea what other people are REALLY doing...I live in my own handicapping bubble in my home-office. For all I know, people are throwing darts. And to be honest, I don't care one way or another. What I do know is that in order for me to win, fields have to be competitive and my opponents have to (collectively) make mistakes. I don't think they make many in the win pool, but in multi-race bets where there are many combinations, there's no question that certain low odds horses get significantly overbet.



Fantastic post there.
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Old 02-18-2018, 12:09 AM   #36
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The public win % is only better than any individual's win % when every single race is bet on by both parties and a comparison is made. The public actually sucks at handicapping in the general sense. Why? Because it is comprised of the entire spectrum of bettors from the top skilled players to degenerate gamblers who bet on everything. If only the top skilled players were allowed in the win pool for example, then the favorite would win at a much higher rate than it currently does. The lower skilled players' contribution is the only reason there can really be any "edge" if you happen to be a better than average player.

I have seen races where the "public" made a certain horse the favorite that only had 2 or 3 previous races in it's lifetime history. The rest of the field had 6+. The horse lost. Upon closer observation it was apparent that the reason that that horse was made the fav is because Mr. Top Jock was on board. Do you consider this a good betting selection method?
"Well maybe all the other horses in the field looked terrible so that was the only choice." WRONG. You have the choice to pass the race altogether.
Bet only when you are confident (knowing if your confidence is based on a solid foundation is key or else you only have false confidence).
Knowing when to pass is just as important as whatever your selection criteria consists of. Personally, I pass every race where all the horses have a bris speed rating under 80 for example. There are many more reasons to pass. Do not underestimate the contribution that appropriately passing races makes to your total roi.

As far as making a so-called accurate odds line. You have a better chance at winning the national lottery than accomplishing such a task. Anyone who could pull that off would have themselves an ATM machine. The difference between winning and losing (long term win-only flat betting) is never a simple matter. My advice: Study running style, closing ability, itm% in the stretch & finish. Develop your own uncommon factors if you can. Try to find reasons why your horse may lose instead of why it should win. Look through your past records. If a particular selection lost but it finished in the top 3 and the post time odds were higher (meaning 4th fav or worse), find the reason why you bet it and investigate other races with similar qualities for a pattern. Don't be afraid to pass. There are thousands more races to be run.
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Old 02-18-2018, 12:19 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
Franco,

Actually, I did say it in an earlier post that was VERY LONG.

For the most part, I agree with you.

The only statement I disagree with is in bold. (And I know you meant it somewhat metaphorically.)

The issue isn't that WE overestimate probabilities. The issue is that we overestimate sometimes, underestimate other times, and cannot tell the difference.

Many players make a line on a horse - say 3/1 - and (logically) think that if they double that to 6/1 they just HAVE TO be profitable.

Adding a margin of error will not overcome weak handicapping!

I actually had a coaching client years ago who said that he'd be better off playing against his own picks, so I told him to try it. He reported back a week later that his results improved. (Still lost money but not as badly.)


In my opinion, the single thing that prevents most players from winning is that they do not actually have a simple core handicapping approach.

Most players view each race as a unique problem to be solved.

It is much easier to be competitive (in terms of bankroll growth/deterioration) if you find commonalities between races and develop a "core method."

Viewing each race - and each horse in a race - as a unique puzzle to be put together leaves you with reinventing your approach in every race.

What I am saying is that when "puzzle players" develop a consistent core method, it is like providing them with a picture of the box showing the edges and corners. It gives them a logical place to begin.


Dave

It is much easier to be competitive (in terms of bankroll growth/deterioration) if you find commonalities between races and develop a "core method."

Good stuff Dave and I have realized it over the years. There might be slight variance between the types or surface of races but I pretty much bet the same things repeatedly. And only that if the entirety of the bet will produce 6-1 or better. Or no play. I don't bet at your race volume but still play about 50% of the races on any card. I've grown cold on in race "true odds" whatever that means and the overlay/goosechase concept. Bet in a manner of X expectation or don't bet at all. That is true odds.
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Old 02-18-2018, 06:06 PM   #38
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It's more important to be a good bettor than a good handicapper.
You can't be a good bettor without being a good handicapper. Sound wagering decisions are based on sound handicapping opinions. When a horseplayer says that his wagering is fuzzy and haphazard...he is admitting that his handicapping opinions are fuzzy and haphazard. You can't have one without the other.
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Old 02-18-2018, 07:25 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by Franco Santiago View Post
A person that I know says his win bets are profitable as long as he is making saver exactas. But his saver exactas take away all of his profit. So, he has tried win betting only. Then, because he has fear of losing the money because he doesn't have his savers in play, he handicaps more conservatively and then does not bet longer priced horses, which are the ones that gave him the win bet profit in the first place. Quite a conundrum, right?
Very astute observation, , which also shows why "paper-betting" is a poor preparation technique for REAL betting. There is an emotional turmoil associated with "real betting" which paper-betting can never prepare us for.
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Old 02-18-2018, 11:00 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
You can't be a good bettor without being a good handicapper. Sound wagering decisions are based on sound handicapping opinions. When a horseplayer says that his wagering is fuzzy and haphazard...he is admitting that his handicapping opinions are fuzzy and haphazard. You can't have one without the other.
This is completely false and I am the poster boy! I had a 2 unit win 1 unit place and double key exacta thing going last year and was going decent without a pulse. I reread Crist's Exotic Betting and got greedy. Been better ever since. Mainly just trying to think how to make money at X clip per single race. The hit % fluctuation varies but the per play expectation is exactly 7.76-1 this winter. I was a churn and burner last year. More race more bets=better yield. I still play a lot of races just a smarter bettor. I am the good handicapper/stupid bettor guy. Normal results are yielding better for me. Being freshly engaged and with 2 new twin grandchildren I haven't played much but been doing well when I do! Hope you are too Thask!

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Old 02-18-2018, 11:13 PM   #41
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This is completely false and I am the poster boy! I had a 2 unit win 1 unit place and double key exacta thing going last year and was going decent without a pulse. I reread Crist's Exotic Betting and got greedy. Been better ever since. Mainly just trying to think how to make money at X clip per single race. The hit % fluctuation varies but the per play expectation is exactly 7.76-1 this winter. I was a churn and burner last year. More race more bets=better yield. I still play a lot of races just a smarter bettor. I am the good handicapper/stupid bettor guy. Normal results are yielding better for me. Being freshly engaged and with 2 new twin grandchildren I haven't played much but been doing well when I do! Hope you are too Thask!
Yes...it's possible to be the "good handicapper/stupid bettor guy". You could be a handicapping GENIUS...and still go broke by doing stupid things like overbetting your bankroll...or betting every race. But, for the life of me...I can't see how someone could be the "good bettor/stupid handicapper" guy. That's why I raise an eyebrow whenever I hear someone say that "It's more important to be a good bettor than a good handicapper". Unless, that is...someone else is doing the handicapping for us.
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Old 02-18-2018, 11:18 PM   #42
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Yes...it's possible to be the "good handicapper/stupid bettor guy". You could be a handicapping GENIUS...and still go broke by doing stupid things like overbetting your bankroll...or betting every race. But, for the life of me...I can't see how someone could be the "good bettor/stupid handicapper" guy.
Totally agree with that. It isn't possible at all. The big thing in between the lines I took from Crist's book is that having a pretty right on assessment of the races in general=make money at it without having to be perfect. Saratoga was a big learning lesson for me. I wasn't fooled much but wasn't crushing. Made it where it counted.
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Old 02-19-2018, 01:29 AM   #43
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I find your post most interesting and valid in my opinion. Admittedly ashamed to say I fall into the defunct betting category that you have highlighted in your post. My question is how do I stop repeating these same faulty betting strategies that I impose upon myself. Can you suggest various constraints I should impose? Thanks in advance for your help.











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Old 02-19-2018, 09:12 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Yes...it's possible to be the "good handicapper/stupid bettor guy". You could be a handicapping GENIUS...and still go broke by doing stupid things like overbetting your bankroll...or betting every race. But, for the life of me...I can't see how someone could be the "good bettor/stupid handicapper" guy. That's why I raise an eyebrow whenever I hear someone say that "It's more important to be a good bettor than a good handicapper". Unless, that is...someone else is doing the handicapping for us.
I normally agree with a lot of your thoughts but this one I have to diverge.

I actually think its very easy to be "that" guy.

The only way to consistently win is to find edge/advantage and then make bets that capitalize on that.

For me, see I aint so smart, so I keep it simple and only bet to win and I only make a handful of bets per week.

But if I was really good I would be able to make bets based on my superior predictions of races, which I truly believe I can do. I am right way more than I am wrong.

But these guys that are really good, they see that edge and can craft bets that take advantage. They may not even love the race(s) the bet, but they see something, a weak favorite, a very strong favorite, a chaos type race, etc etc and they put together tickets that advantage of that edge.

I believe Steve Crists book was brilliant, but I think when I see the bets laid out by some of these professionals, it was a little simplistic.
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Old 02-19-2018, 01:55 PM   #45
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I find your post most interesting and valid in my opinion. Admittedly ashamed to say I fall into the defunct betting category that you have highlighted in your post. My question is how do I stop repeating these same faulty betting strategies that I impose upon myself. Can you suggest various constraints I should impose? Thanks in advance for your help.











a
Not sure if you are talking to me or Thask. But even payouts. Start with checking exacta and double payouts. Whatever you bet amount is if you can't squeeze out 6-1 or better from 4-6 outcomes don't bet at all. I like 2 outcome races and play it that way even when I shouldn't but that's crush potential. But following these payouts gives you an indication of what races are worth going tri/super or P3-4-5. Or which ones to pass. I have become less win centric even though with statistical analysis my win mutual has risen by $3 from roughly 9.4 that was routine from 2001 to 2012 or so. I attribute that to greed. I want to make better than a day's wage working on every bet I make. That's what I shoot for. And doing it this way you hit twice a day without having to be perfect(single outcome win bet) it makes the day's races seem meaningful. You know the races from a general standpoint and you get paid for it. And this mode keeps you out of races that you have no expectation out of. Passing is important. I feel completely philosophically sound not playing races that offer anything. 5/2 shots winning in 3-1 overall return races who cares?! That's every day! I'm getting about 7.5-1 return on bets and I still feel mediocre! Be greedy or don't get involved!
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